New Zealand 438 and 120 for 3 (Ravindra 60*) lead England 354 (Duckett 113, Bethell 74, Brook 58, Smith 4-91, Foulkes 3-35, O'Rourke 3-53) by 204 runs
The last time England played New Zealand at Trent Bridge, they made light work of a fourth-innings run chase to launch a new regime under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum. Four years on, the intense scrutiny on that same pair is mounting after New Zealand seized control of this series decider, leaving England needing a repeat dose.
Stokes and Joe Root are the only survivors from the team that gunned down 299 in 50 overs in June 2022 and it is hard to see how England will chase a target any bigger than that one this week, no matter how much longer they have to do so. A hitherto docile pitch suddenly came to life on Saturday, and will continue to deteriorate after another day in the heat.
Moving day lived up to its reputation: after 661 runs and 12 wickets across the first two days, the third returned a combined score of 251 for 11. The temperature never reached 30 degrees but the pitch started to misbehave, with New Zealand's seamers exploiting the variable bounce to run through England's middle order.
New Zealand then lost their top three in a hurry, Jofra Archer removing both openers in a hostile burst after tea. But Rachin Ravindra counterattacked with support from the more reserved Daryl Mitchell, and England's heads started to drop as their unbroken 69-run fourth-wicket stand took New Zealand's advantage past 200 late in the day.
This would be a famous win for a New Zealand side forced into three changes between Tests and a fourth when Blair Tickner reported concussion symptoms on Friday afternoon. They have shaken Kane Williamson's mid-series retirement off seamlessly, and showed their resilience on Saturday by forcing their way back into the ascendancy.
For England, a rare series defeat at home - their first in a series of three Tests of more since 2012 - could prove terminal for at least one of Stokes, McCullum and managing director Rob Key, whose tight bond in the early years of Bazball has frayed significantly over the past 10 months. They are still in with a chance, but will need to rediscover their love of the chase.
McCullum said in the build-up to this Test that England's batters had been "talking about this for quite a while", but his batters struggled to combat accurate, medium-fast seam bowling with the wicketkeeper up to the stumps once again as they lost eight wickets for 121 runs in the day.
Nathan Smith and Zak Foulkes - New Zealand's eighth-choice seamer, who replaced Tickner on Friday evening - shared seven second-innings wickets between them, five of them with Tom Blundell standing up: Smith pinned Root on the front pad with an inducker, and Foulkes' legcutters cleaned up both Harry Brook and Stokes.
Neither Root (21) nor Jacob Bethell (74) - who edged Will O'Rourke to second slip while attempting to pull his bat out of the line of the ball - added a run to their overnight scores, and when Mitchell held an excellent low slip catch to remove Jamie Smith off the bowling of his namesake Nathan, England had lost three wickets in the first 31 minutes of the day.
Brook made the only score of note, cruising to a 66-ball half-century before lunch, but New Zealand successfully dried up his scoring options and tested his patience with a split field. He hit five boundaries in his first 38 balls but none in his next 42, the last of which decked away past his outside edge to take out his off stump.
It has become a familiar story for Brook. Since his outrageous 111 against India at The Oval last summer - his most recent Test century - he has reached 30 in 10 of his 15 innings, but has only once managed 60 in one of them. He is England's second-highest scorer in this series but scores of 56, 0, 24, 58 and 58 reflect a run of missed opportunities.
Gus Atkinson and Archer stuck at it, adding 28 in 72 balls for the eighth wicket. They were both put down off O'Rourke's bowling - a fumbled return catch for Archer, a sitter shelled by the out-of-sorts Ben Sears at mid-on for Atkinson - but England's tail folded quickly against the second new ball, losing their last three wickets for four runs.
Archer came out firing in his first over, beating Tom Latham's outside edge before thumping him on the knee roll of his back pad with a perfect outswinger. In his third, he struck Devon Conway on the back of the helmet with a sharp lifter, then wheeled away in celebration after his thick outside edge flew to Root at first slip.
Henry Nicholls was reprieved off Josh Tongue when Brook, as a solitary, wide slip, failed to go for a thick outside edge that flew between him and Smith, but gobbled up a near-identical chance exactly six balls later when Atkinson found the edge. But Ravindra calmed things down with a flurry of early drives through mid-off on his way to an 81-ball 50, while Mitchell bedded in at the other end.
England's early energy quickly faded, their struggles epitomised by Tongue's lazy misfield on the boundary, a wild beamer from Shoaib Bashir which reached Ravindra at head height, and the sight of Smith coming up to the stumps to first Atkinson and then - for one ball, at least - Archer. Quick wickets on Sunday morning are their only route back.
