Big picture - Uphill task for Afghanistan
Afghanistan made it till the semi-finals of the 2024 T20 World Cup, but this time, after just one game, they face an uphill task. Their loss to New Zealand in their opening match has put them, in all likelihood, in a do-or-die situation against South Africa: if they lose, even the wins against Canada and UAE may not be enough to qualify for the Super Eight stage.
It will not be easy for Afghanistan. They have faced South Africa three times in T20Is. On all three occasions, they were on the losing side. Their last defeat - in of the 2024 edition - was particularly chastening: South Africa bowled them out for 56 and then chased down the target with nine wickets to spare.
Apart from all that history, too, South Africa will be well primed after their win against Canada, where they ticked most boxes. Their captain Aiden Markram scored a half-century, David Miller and Tristan Stubbs added 75 in an unbroken stand, and the team posted the highest total of the tournament so far. Lungi Ngidi's four-for was the icing on the cake. A win against Afghanistan will make their path to the Super Eight stage smooth.
It's a day game, starting at 11am. But as Stubbs said after the Canada match, it may not make much of a difference.
Form guide
Afghanistan LLWWW (last five T20Is, most recent first)
South Africa WLWWL
In the spotlight: Rashid Khan and Quinton de Kock
It may feel like Rashid Khan is not the same bowler he once was. But numbers tell a different story. Since the start of 2024, he has taken 52 wickets in 26 T20Is against Full Members. Both his strike rate (11.3) and economy (5.83) in this period are better than his career numbers. If Afghanistan are to qualify for the next round, they will need similar performances from their captain.
Since his return to T20I cricket in October, Quinton de Kock has five single-digit scores in 11 innings. But when he gets going, it's not easy to stop him. He has scored 355 runs in this period, at an average of 32.27 and a strike rate of 181.12. His overall record in India is also impressive, and he will be keen to put behind his 22-ball 25 in South Africa's opening match against Canada.
Team news: Noor Ahmad could come in
Expect Noor Ahmad to replace Ziaur Rahman, who conceded 33 from his three wicketless overs against New Zealand.
Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Gulbadin Naib, 4 Sediqullah Atal, 5 Darwish Rasooli, 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Rashid Khan (capt), 9 Mujeeb Ur Rahman, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
South Africa could consider bringing in a second spinner in George Linde for one of the many fast bowlers.
South Africa (probable): 1 Aiden Markram (capt), 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Ryan Rickelton, 4 Dewald Brevis, 5 David Miller, 6 Tristan Stubbs, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Corbin Bosch, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 Keshav Maharaj, 11 Lungi Ngidi
Pitch and conditions
The match will be played on a red-soil pitch. In the last five T20Is in Ahmedabad, the average first-innings score has been 217. Even though the pitches in ICC tournaments are not that batting-friendly, expect a high-scoring game nonetheless. The sun will be out, with the temperature hovering around 30°C.
Stats and trivia
De Kock is 61 away from becoming the first South Africa batter to reach 3000 T20I runs.
Fazalhaq Farooqi has an economy rate of 6.42 in the powerplay in T20Is.
Rashid is three short of 700 T20 wickets.
Quotes
"To be honest, no one around the world will tell you how the wicket will behave before the game. Everyone gives their point of view. Nowadays, I think, what I'm hearing a lot is the discussion about the wicket. We don't really discuss the skills that we have. We bring the skills into the game."
Rashid Khan is not a big fan of pitch analysis
"I've played a day game here and we [Delhi Capitals] scored 210 [203] and they [Gujarat Titans] chased it down. I don't think everyone needs to jump on a spinner's rag. It could be a really good wicket - there's that chance too." Tristan Stubbs does not want to put all the eggs in the spin basket
