The 2026 World Cup is now officially underway for U.S. men's national team after a big 4-1 win against Paraguay to open the tournament on Friday.
Even with a win under their belt, the U.S. still has two more games they need to get results in to advance from Group D. If they do, the round of 32 awaits where the possible match-ups could range from lopsided to too close for comfort. From there, it only gets tougher: in the modern World Cup, the USMNT has only made it past the round of 16 once, and that was 24 years ago.
That's why ESPN will be bringing you regularly updated permutations, odds and projections that will follow the likely U.S. path through the World Cup -- including what the Americans need to do to advance, and which teams they could end up facing. Stick around and bookmark this page for the latest.
USMNT scenarios and permutations: What is the team's path through the World Cup?
The expansion of the tournament from 32 to 48 total teams -- and the resulting creation of the round of 32 -- could make advancing from the group stage a bit easier for the U.S. than in previous years. But at the same time, the USMNT's potential path through the World Cup has become much more challenging to project.
The key complication: Not only are all 12 group winners and 12 second-place teams advancing to the knockout rounds, but also the eight best third-place teams. There are 495 different combinations of how third-placed teams could be seeded in the bracket, so chaos will be the story of the final group games as teams battle to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
The third-place teams will be decided by these criteria, in order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Team conduct score
5. FIFA world ranking
In other words, if two teams are tied on points, the team with the higher goal difference will be ranked higher, and so on down the list of tiebreakers.
Finally, here's what each finishing place in the group stage would mean for the Americans:
If the U.S. finishes first in Group D: The team will secure a spot in the round of 32, but its opponent will most likely not be known until the group stage is complete. The U.S. could face the runner-up from any of five groups: B, E, F, I or J.
If the U.S. finishes second: The team will advance to the round of 32 and face the runner-up of Group G, which contains Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand.
If the U.S. finishes third: The team's fate will depend on whether it finished as one of the eight best third-placed teams. If the U.S. advances, it will face the winner of Group E, I or K in the round of 32 -- plausible opponents include Germany, France, Portugal or Colombia. If not, the U.S. will be eliminated from the World Cup.
If the U.S. finishes fourth: The team's World Cup journey will be over and four years of hand-wringing will commence.
So, where does the USMNT's win over Paraguay leave the team now?
Path to advance after beating Paraguay: By opening the tournament with a win, the U.S. now could have the opportunity to guarantee qualification to the knockout rounds after two group stage games.
In order for that to happen, it would require Australia and Turkiye to draw in their first World Cup match on Saturday, Turkiye or Paraguay to draw with each other in the second batch of games, Turkiye to win both of their first two matches, or Turkiye to lose both of their first two matches - in addition to a U.S. win over Australia, of course.
In short: the USMNT's win -- and a big win at that -- opens several potential paths to advance to the round of 32.
USMNT betting odds: How sportsbooks think the Americans will do
Even if you aren't into betting, the odds set by sportsbooks can be a pretty decent gauge of where the U.S. stands in the tournament. After all, oddsmakers have a financially vested interest in accurately assessing the World Cup field and making confident guesses so they can set betting lines accordingly.
With that, here's where DraftKings puts the U.S. following their win to Paraguay:
Odds to win the World Cup: +4000, or 40-to-1 odds -- an improvement over the +6000 the U.S. was at before the tournament began.
Odds to top Group D: -185, meaning the Americans are strong favorites to win the group, with an implied probability of around 65%. (Paraguay's loss on Friday dropped them all the way down to +2500 to win the group, an implied probability of less than 4%.)
Next up, the USMNT faces Australia in Group D on June 19. Here are the USMNT's odds vs. Australia:
Win: -175, which implies odds of 64%
Draw: +350
Lose: +450, which implies odds of 18%
USMNT projections: How data models see the World Cup playing out
If you don't want to listen to the gambling sharks, how about the data nerds? There are several models out there trying to predict the 2026 World Cup, but we like one from DTAI Sports Analytics Lab out of KU Leuven, a research university in Belgium.
Its projection model is based on an Elo rating system, which ranks every team by recent results, the scoreline of those results and the strength of the opponent. It layers that with an offense and defense rating that assesses how many goals a team should be expected to score or concede against an average opponent
After the USMNT's win over Paraguay, here's how the DTAI model projects the rest of the group stage for the U.S.:
But hey, World Cups aren't won or lost based on probabilities and predictions. The games have to be played, and anything can happen. We'll be following along, so stay tuned.