All right, NBA fans: Turn on "Star Wars: Episode I -- The Phantom Menace," press play on "Livin' La Vida Loca" and prepare your computer servers for Y2K. It's going to feel like 1999 all over again.
The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will tip off a 1999 Finals rematch Wednesday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC), and the winner will become the eighth unique champion in the past eight seasons.
The NBA has evolved by leaps and bounds since 1999, which was an especially strange season because of a condensed schedule after a lockout. That year's Finals didn't tip off until June 16 -- the same day that Game 6 is scheduled for this year. The average final score in the 1999 Finals was Spurs 85, Knicks 80 (by comparison, the Knicks have scored more than 80 points in the first half of two playoff games this spring). The two teams combined to make 6.4 3-pointers per game -- just slightly more than Julian Champagnie made by himself in the Spurs' Game 7 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Rick Brunson, the father of Knicks star Jalen Brunson and a current assistant coach on the team, played in the 1999 series, as did Jaren Jackson Sr., whose son just finished his eighth NBA season. A young assistant coach named Mike Brown was a year away from being hired by the Spurs, while his counterpart in the 2026 Finals, Mitch Johnson, was still in middle school.
But in two key ways, not much has changed since 1999: The Spurs are once again attempting to start a dynasty behind a 22-year-old phenom in the post, while the Knicks are once again trying to win their first NBA title since 1973.
Both teams have done just about everything well in the playoffs so far. They rank first and second in playoff net rating, first and third on offense, and first and second on defense. The Knicks are on a historically dominant 11-game winning streak, while the Spurs just eliminated the defending champs with a Game 7 win on the road.
So as Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson, De'Aaron Fox, Karl-Anthony Towns, Stephon Castle and OG Anunoby prepare for the most important series of their lives, in what turned out to be the most exciting possible Finals matchup, let's take a first look at seven key trends that could decide the championship.
Jump to a section:
What three meetings revealed | Wemby matchup
Hart's impact | Opportunity for KAT
Corner clash | Board battle
Legacies on the line | Prediction
A lopsided regular-season series
The Spurs were a far superior team to the Knicks in the regular season this year. San Antonio finished 62-20 with a plus-8.4 net rating, while New York went 53-29 with a plus-6.4 mark.
But the Knicks went 2-1 in head-to-head matchups against the Spurs, and they were one of just two teams (along with a healthy Golden State Warriors squad) to beat Wembanyama twice this season.
That record includes the Knicks' 124-113 triumph in the NBA Cup championship game in Las Vegas, which didn't count in the standings or for any player statistics but provided a useful facsimile of a high-stakes game between these two teams.
In the two regularly scheduled meetings between the finalists, the Spurs won 134-132 on New Year's Eve, thanks to 36 points and 11 3-pointers from Champagnie, while the Knicks romped at home in March 114-89. The 25-point loss was the Spurs' largest of the season -- and one of just two games they lost between Feb. 1 and April 3.
Those results could carry more import than usual when projecting the Finals because -- in a rarity for the NBA in 2026 -- both teams were mostly healthy in all three matchups. Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson -- who is dealing with a broken right pinkie heading into this series -- missed San Antonio's win, and the Spurs had a different starting lineup in December than they do now. But otherwise, the matchups and lineups from the three previous meetings could mostly carry over to the Finals.
The Wembanyama matchup
The first question for the Knicks in this series is: How will they defend Wembanyama? The 22-year-old has been the best overall player this postseason. He has played 15 full games in the playoffs (not counting when he left early due to injury and ejection), and the Spurs have won his minutes in 14 of them.
The Knicks have two options to defend Wembanyama, and they used a blend of both in the regular season. They can call on a center (typically Towns, but also Robinson if he's in the game) to combat Wembanyama with more size. Or they can turn to the shorter, stouter Anunoby instead.
Towns held up fairly well against Wembanyama in one-on-one matchups this season. On one play, he nabbed a nifty steal when Wembanyama tried to drive on him.
— KramClips (@KramClips) May 31, 2026
But Towns' foul proneness could be a massive problem if the Knicks ask him to guard Wembanyama for most of the Finals. New York needs Towns to stay on the court -- especially with Robinson's health and effectiveness in question -- and Wembanyama has drawn 6.8 fouls per game in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Anunoby might be the best option in the entire league for a wing who can prevent Wembanyama from getting to his spots. The Oklahoma City Thunder attempted this strategy with Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso in the conference finals, but mostly abandoned it because Wembanyama was able to overpower those smaller defenders. The 6-foot-7, 240-pound Anunoby isn't easily overpowered.
Because San Antonio doesn't have an apex wing scorer whom Anunoby would naturally defend, it might make sense to give him the bulk of the Wembanyama matchup -- and let Towns hide out on a shooter -- as Brown surveys his defensive options for the Knicks.
Open Hart surgery
The Wembanyama matchup is just as fascinating on the other end of the court. Here, the Spurs' first option is clear: They want Wembanyama to play free safety while ostensibly matching up with Hart, much as he did against the likes of Caruso and Cason Wallace in the conference finals.
Hart is no stranger to this sort of coverage; the Cavaliers employed the same philosophy with Jarrett Allen in the conference finals. Sometimes, Hart beats that strategy, as in his 26-point showing in Game 2 against Cleveland. Other times, that strategy beats him, as in Game 1 against Cleveland when shooter Landry Shamet needed to replace Hart for the Knicks' historic comeback.
Against San Antonio, the Knicks decided to take the action right at Wembanyama when he sagged off Hart. In the teams' March meeting, Hart set 18 picks, per GeniusIQ, tied for his high in any game this season. A lot of them looked like this:
— KramClips (@KramClips) May 31, 2026
The Spurs were content to focus on Brunson -- who will be guarded primarily by Castle after he tormented Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the conference finals -- as the ball handler, ignoring Hart and leaving him open on the perimeter.
Hart can take advantage of that position to crash for offensive rebounds or pivot into setting a pick for another teammate. But he'll also need to maintain his confidence to square up and take the open 3 the Spurs' defense permits.
Whether he sinks those shots -- like Caruso, who forced the Spurs to switch up their defense -- or misses them could swing the Finals.
A big opportunity for KAT
If the Spurs place Wembanyama on Hart, Towns will have a golden opportunity in this series because the ensuing domino effect will force a smaller defender onto the self-proclaimed greatest big man shooter in NBA history.
Champagnie and Devin Vassell didn't have much difficulty against a cowed Chet Holmgren in the conference finals, but even though Towns is roughly the same size as Holmgren, he presents a much stiffer challenge. Towns is a more willing -- and accurate -- shooter, a more aggressive scorer and a more incisive passer, as his two triple-doubles and 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs have demonstrated.
Granted, Towns wasn't as aggressive as he could have been in the regular season. He averaged only 10.3 shot attempts in three matchups against the Spurs, which ranked last among the five Knicks starters.
But given his recent inspired play and the matchups he's likely to face in the Finals, it's fair to expect more production from him this month.
If Hart forces the Spurs to abandon their free safety strategy or Towns commands a Wembanyama matchup because their smaller defenders can't stop him, the Knicks will gain a definitive advantage. After the Thunder spent the conference finals struggling to poke holes in San Antonio's mighty defense, it's easy to envision multiple ways the Knicks could have greater success doing the same in the Finals.
New York averaged 123.3 points per game against San Antonio in the regular season. The Denver Nuggets were the only team that scored more against the Spurs.
A clash for the corners
In the regular season, the Knicks and Spurs were the top two teams in corner 3-point frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. In fact, the top four players in corner 3 attempts this season were, in order: Mikal Bridges, Anunoby, Harrison Barnes and Champagnie.
The Knicks have been on fire from those spots, sinking 42% of their corner 3s in the playoffs. The Spurs, meanwhile, are at 32%, the worst mark for any team that won a round.
That gap matches New York's broader 3-point gap in the postseason. As I wrote last week, the Knicks have been historically lucky with 3-point defense this postseason; their opponents have made just 31.9% of their wide-open 3s, per GeniusIQ, the lowest mark for any team that reached the conference finals in the tracking era (since 2013-14).
But it's dangerous to count on that luck persisting against the Spurs, especially if New York surrenders a typical number of corner 3s. While the Knicks took corner 3s at a league-high rate this year, they also allowed the second-most corner 3s, per Cleaning the Glass, ahead of only the Thunder.
Again, that tendency hasn't backfired in the playoffs thus far. But it seems likely that Vassell and Champagnie will get their fair share of opportunities from the corners in the Finals. That's usually a good outcome for the Spurs, who have made 12.9 3-pointers per game on 36.5% shooting in the playoffs.
A battle on the boards
The Knicks haven't lost a game since April 20, so they were receiving their first bit of bad news in more than a month last week when Robinson suffered a broken right pinkie. He underwent surgery and reportedly expects to play in the Finals, but if the Knicks' big backup center is compromised, they could suffer accordingly.
Robinson leads a crucial element of New York's offense. His 24% offensive rebounding rate this year would have been the best mark in NBA history if he'd had enough minutes to qualify for the all-time leaderboard. In the playoffs, he's inhaling 2.5 offensive boards in just 14 minutes per game. And he notably grabbed 10 offensive rebounds in the Knicks' NBA Cup win over San Antonio.
More broadly, second chances are a big part of the Knicks' offense, as Robinson, Towns, Hart and Anunoby are adept at crashing the offensive glass. New York ranks first in the playoffs with 29 putback points per 100 missed shots, per Cleaning the Glass.
But the Spurs present a more immovable object against this unstoppable Knicks rebounding force: NBA Cup final excepted, San Antonio led the league in defensive rebounding rate this year, thanks largely to the 7-foot-4 center patrolling the paint.
In the Western Conference finals, former Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein proved that San Antonio can be vulnerable on the boards. Wembanyama can get fatigued, and the Spurs are smaller on the wings than the Knicks.
But a full-strength Robinson would certainly help the Knicks in that regard. Every extra possession could matter in a series that looks so closely matched.
Legacies on the line
The two finalists constructed their rotations in very different fashions. The Knicks didn't draft any of their five starters, while the Spurs picked four of their key players in the lottery (Wembanyama first, Dylan Harper second, Castle fourth and Vassell 11th overall).
Zooming out, the 2026 Finals will make history and change some beliefs about team-building regardless of its ultimate result.
If the Knicks triumph, Brunson will become the rare small guard to win a title as his team's best player, thereby setting a new example for how to build a champion. If the Spurs win, they'll break the mold by doing so with minimal prior playoff experience, setting up a potential dynasty with such a young core winning ahead of schedule.
In either case, Brunson or Fox will become the first left-handed starting guard since Derek Fisher in 2010 to win a championship. And as the Knicks or Spurs become the eighth different champion in eight years, they will extend an NBA record streak.
In the next few weeks, either the Knicks will break a championship drought of more than half a century, sending the largest U.S. city into euphoria, or Wembanyama will take his next giant step toward global superstardom and basketball immortality. There's no bigger or better stage for Wembanyama to attempt to win his first ring than Madison Square Garden, where Tim Duncan claimed his first Finals MVP trophy 27 years ago, the last time the Knicks and Spurs met with so much on the line.
The prediction
The Knicks have played beautifully brilliant basketball for the past month, and they bring several advantages against San Antonio that even the top-seeded Thunder did not. Hart will have at least one game -- probably multiple -- in which he makes the Spurs pay for leaving him open, and the size of Towns and Anunoby could allow them to bully the non-Wembanyama Spurs a bit on the offensive end.
New York also enters the Finals much fresher, with more than a week of rest after a conference finals sweep, while the Spurs' stars all averaged big minutes across seven physical, exhausting games against Oklahoma City.
But the Spurs will present a much more formidable challenge than any of New York's prior opponents in this postseason. Atlanta, Cleveland and Philadelphia ranked 10th, 15th and 17th, respectively, in defensive rating in the regular season, while the Spurs were third. And the Cavaliers and 76ers advanced to face the Knicks only via three Game 7 victories; they were a combined 12-9 against teams other than New York this spring, while the Spurs' latest opponents, Oklahoma City and Minnesota, had a 12-2 playoff record before facing San Antonio.
Moreover, the two teams' health status has swung in the past week. Injury luck looked as if it would favor the Knicks when they were fully healthy and both Fox and Harper were hampered, but those two guards closed the West finals strong while Robinson's surgery raises questions about New York's rebounding strength and depth behind Towns.
If the Knicks continue to make 40% of their 3-pointers while allowing a historically low 3-point mark, none of those nuances will matter. That would be enough of an advantage on its own to bring the Larry O'Brien Trophy to New York for the first time. (This trophy was first awarded in 1977, more recently than the Knicks' last title.)
But I expect that gap to even out in the Finals and the Spurs' dominant defense to rule the day. Wembanyama will join fellow Spurs Duncan and Kawhi Leonard as Finals MVPs in their age-22 seasons. San Antonio in six.