The 2026 Stanley Cup Final has arrived, and it represents the central tension of the 2026 playoffs.
On the one hand, it's not a surprise to see the Carolina Hurricanes skating for Lord Stanley's Cup because they were the East's best team by record all season. Then again, this team had a long history of falling short of the Final before this year -- a trend the Hurricanes finally defied.
The Vegas Golden Knights should be considered a major surprise because they lost more games than they won during the regular season, fired their coach in late March and got here by pulling off a stunning sweep over the heavily favored Colorado Avalanche. But is anyone really that surprised to see Vegas in the Final? This team won the Cup as recently as three years ago, and still has plenty of talent.
In other words, this Final makes as much sense as you want it to -- and as little as you need it to.
To help sort out which players have helped Vegas and Carolina cut through the chaos and contradictions, let's consult the postseason goals above replacement (GAR) rankings -- my version of "all-in-one" metrics such as Hockey-Reference's Point Shares. The core philosophy of GAR is to quantify a player's total contribution (across offense, defense and goaltending) relative to a replacement-level player at the same position. To ensure the metric reflects reality, it also balances leaguewide value by position: 60% for forwards, 30% for defensemen and 10% for goaltenders.
Looking at GAR for the playoffs thus far, here's a ranking of the skaters and goaltenders in the 2026 Final who have added the most value along the road to the Final. It's important to note that these aren't the best players in the series by pure talent -- some of these players performed at much different levels during the regular season -- but they have been most responsible for getting us here, and they might be most capable of tilting this series in their team's direction.
1. Carter Hart, G, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: .922 SV%, 8.4 goals saved above average
Goals above replacement: 9.6
Hart was barely above replacement with an .891 save percentage and -1.9 GSAA during the regular season, but incumbent starter Adin Hill was even worse, and new bench boss John Tortorella -- Hart's former coach in Philadelphia -- was empowered to ride with Hart in the playoffs.
It has been a great decision, as Hart leads all postseason netminders with 8.4 GSAA through the conference finals. In the Golden Knights' sweep against Colorado, Hart outperformed the Avalanche's league-leading duo from the regular season (Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, the "Lumber Yard") by a massive margin of .944 to .889 in the SV% column.
Outlook for the Final: One thing is certain about Hart's outlook against Carolina: He will get a lot of work. The Canes peppered Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes with 33 shots per game during the conference finals, including 41 per game in Games 3 and 4. That means Hart, who has been especially sharp on high-danger chances, will have every opportunity to be the hero again for Vegas. Either way, the Golden Knights' chances will hinge on his performance.
2. Frederik Andersen, G, Hurricanes
Playoff stats: .931 SV%, 7.5 GSAA
Goals above replacement: 8.3
If Hart is the most pivotal player of the Final because he'll be given the greatest opportunity to swing the series (for good or bad), Andersen might be the most pivotal in terms of which version of him shows up. Fighting through the grief of his agent Claude Lemieux's death last week, Andersen continued a playoff run that has been the best of his career (with a career-high 8.3 GAR thus far).
Though Montreal tagged him for as many goals as he had allowed in Rounds 1 and 2, he stood tall with a shutout in Game 4 and kept the door shut (with lots of goal support) in Game 5. That has all been in sharp contrast with Andersen's regular-season form: -18.3 GSAA and -11.6 GAR.
Outlook for the Final: Vegas will provide one last major test for Andersen's rejuvenated 2026 postseason form at age 36, coming off the worst regular season of his long career. The Golden Knights have the best offense of any team left in the playoffs, averaging 3.63 goals. But as the most likely Hurricane to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, according to the betting odds, a Carolina win would almost certainly come because Andersen continued to turn back the clock.
3. Mitch Marner, RW, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: 16 GP | 7 G | 14 A | +12 rating | 7.7 goals created
Goals above replacement: 6.2
Speaking of redemption stories, there is perhaps none bigger in the playoffs than Marner. Perennially maligned as a postseason underperformer by fans and the press in his hometown of Toronto, Marner has used his fresh start in Vegas to prove he can shine on the big stage. He has recorded a playoff-high 21 points with seven goals, including this unbelievable one against Anaheim, heading into the Final.
That production has been worth 6.2 GAR in 16 games, or roughly the same as Marner had in his previous 35 playoff contests before this season.
Outlook for the Final: Most often paired with Brett Howden (and recently William Karlsson) on the Knights' dangerous second line, Marner has helped drive both goals and puck control (+5.1 relative Corsi) for Vegas -- including against Colorado's possession machine. We'll see what he can do against the ultimate opponent in that regard, Carolina, and another of the best D-corps in the league.
4. Taylor Hall, LW, Hurricanes
Playoff stats: 13 GP | 5 | 11 A | +11 rating | 5.4 goals created
Goals above replacement: 5.2
Wait, maybe the redemption narrative of the playoffs belongs to Hall instead of Marner or Andersen. (There are many to choose from.)
After seemingly leaving his time as a peak performer far behind in his 20s, the 34-year-old Hall bounced back with his best regular season (9.9 GAR) since 2021-22. In the playoffs, Hall has held down the left side of an unbelievably productive No. 2 line for the Canes with Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake, a pair of 22-year-olds who have been the perfect complements for the veteran ex-MVP.
Outlook for the Final: Hall is coming off a relatively quiet conference finals (two goals, four points in five games) relative to the 12 points in eight games he had leading up to the Montreal series. Though he lit up the stat sheet with a goal and two helpers in the Game 5 onslaught that put away the Habs. Given how active his linemates have also been, it's hard to see Hall not playing a role in his share of goals against Vegas.
5. Pavel Dorofeyev, LW, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: 16 GP | 10 G | 4 A | +5 rating | 6.6 goals created
Goals above replacement: 4.9
Dorofeyev has improved every season of his five-year NHL career, and he followed up on last season's then-career-high 12.6 GAR with 16.6 this season -- notching career bests with 37 goals and 27 assists.
His playoff production has been even better. He is averaging nearly a point per game while grabbing a share of the league lead (with teammate Brett Howden) at 10 goals (or 17.2% of Vegas' team total). Deployed on the Knights' top line alongside Ivan Barbashev and Jack Eichel, Dorofeyev has repeatedly showcased his superior hockey sense and knack for being in the right place at the right time, with the puck on his stick.
Outlook for the Final: After burying four goals against Utah and five more against Anaheim, Dorofeyev was more a part of Vegas' ensemble scoring effort against Colorado -- he was one of 11 Golden Knights to score in the series. But that one marker came on the power play, where Vegas has been deadly. He should make an impact against a Carolina penalty kill that ranked an average-by-its-standards 11th during the regular season (even if the Hurricanes have been better during the playoffs).
6. Brett Howden, C, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: 16 GP | 10 G | 2 A | +9 rating | 6.0 goals created
Goals above replacement: 4.8
Whether we use his previous career playoff GAR (2.1) or his 2025-26 regular-season output (2.0) as the baseline, Howden has already more than doubled what anyone reasonably could have expected from him this postseason. Granted, he was better a season ago, scoring 23 goals with 40 points and a plus-17 rating, before lower-body injuries limited him to 58 games.
But healthy again and playing on a line with Karlsson and Marner, Howden continues to score in huge situations -- including three short-handed goals and three game-winners. He leads the playoffs in both categories.
Outlook for the Final: Howden has been playing nearly 17 minutes per game in the playoffs -- well beyond his usual career workload -- and Tortorella clearly trusts him in important moments. Though it's highly unlikely he'll keep scoring on 35.7% of his shots, as he has done thus far in the '26 postseason, Howden will be important at both ends of the ice.
7. Logan Stankoven, C, Hurricanes
Playoff stats: 13 GP | 9 G | 3 A | +8 rating | 5.4 goals created
Goals above replacement: 4.8
Stankoven has been a steady source of production for the Canes all postseason, tallying at least one point in every game of the Ottawa series and in eight of 13 postseason games. Centering Hall and Blake, Stankoven was part of the line that combined for eight total points in the dominating closeout victory over Montreal to earn Carolina's spot in the Final.
Not yet done with his age-22 season, Stankoven already has 8.5 career playoff GAR, which ranks 40th best in NHL history through that age.
Outlook for the Final: Stankoven is one of the most important players in the series, not only because he has been the most effective play driver on the most relentless forechecking machine in the league, but also because of his responsibilities in the middle of the Hurricanes' not-so-secret weapon line. Carolina will probably need to make some series-defining plays and outperform its counterparts on Vegas' second line to win the Cup.
8. Jackson Blake, RW, Hurricanes
Playoff stats: 13 GP | 5 G | 10 A | +8 rating | 5.2 goals created
Goals above replacement: 4.4
Blake was one of many in a deep stable of contributors who led Carolina during the regular season. His 22 goals, 53 points and 10.7 GAR ranked seventh on the team behind Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere, Nikolaj Ehlers and Alexander Nikishin.
In the playoffs, though, he has outproduced all of his more experienced and well-known teammates -- and also ranks fourth among Hurricane forwards in ice time per game (behind Aho, Jarvis and Ehlers), a testament to how much this veteran-laden team is leaning on the 22-year-old in his third NHL season.
Outlook for the Final: Similar to Hall and Stankoven, Blake has helped make the Canes' No. 2 line the most explosive of the playoffs, outscoring opponents 12-4 at 5-on-5. Can the unit keep it up? That's one of the key questions of this matchup, but the line was nothing less than dominant the last time we saw it, and it's safe to assume the unit is high on Tortorella's list of concerns headed into the series.
9. K'Andre Miller, D, Hurricanes
Playoff stats: 13 GP | 0 G | 8 A | +14 rating | 2.1 goals created
Goals above replacement: 3.8
Good things continue to happen for Miller since he left a difficult situation with the New York Rangers, landing in a Hurricanes system that is a better fit for his skating and skill set.
And good things also keep happening for the Hurricanes whenever Miller is on the ice: The team has a remarkable 19-4 goal differential with him in the game, and the Hurricanes are taking 61.9% of the shot attempts (compared with 57.4% overall). In the playoffs, Miller has combined individual production and an on-ice positive effect better than any of the Canes' other D-men, and that is saying something on arguably the best D corps in the game.
Outlook for the Final: Though Carolina's first pair of Jaccob Slavin and Jalen Chatfield will continue to handle the toughest defensive assignments against Vegas, Miller is one of the most important players in the series because of his workload -- he leads all Hurricanes skaters in ice time -- and the expectation that he moves the puck on offense and minimizes mistakes on defense.
10. Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: 16 GP | 4 G | 7 A | +8 rating | 4.1 goals created
Goals above replacement: 3.8
When Theodore is healthy, few defensemen in the league are more consistent and dependable. In 2025-26, Theodore played his most regular-season games in four years, and delivered his signature two-way impact, even if his point production was slightly down.
In the playoffs, he has been by far Vegas' most visible blue-line presence on the stat sheet -- with nearly double the points of the next-highest defenseman (Noah Hanifin) and nearly double the next-highest GAR (Dylan Coghlan) as well.
Outlook for the Final: Theodore and Brayden McNabb have their work cut out for them in this series, whether Tortorella deploys them against the hyper-productive Stankoven-Hall-Blake line or the dangerous trio of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. But Theodore's production from the back end could be just as important.
11. Jack Eichel, C, Golden Knights
Playoff stats: 16 GP | 2 G | 16 A | +7 rating | 5.5 goals created
Goals above replacement: 3.3
Why make this a top-11 list? There's no way we could leave out Eichel, even though he sits slightly below the rest in the formula.
Eichel's scoring has been largely missing in the playoffs; his goal in Game 2 of the conference finals snapped a 10-game goalless streak and was one of just two times he scored in this postseason. But he has been busy setting up teammates, with a league-leading 16 assists. He was Vegas' best player with 23.0 GAR during the regular season, and his sixth-place ranking on the Golden Knights' playoff roster speaks more to how many other great performances they've gotten than any failure on Eichel's part.
Outlook for the Final: Though Eichel is often more of a playmaker than a sniper at baseline, it's still unusual to see him score so few goals; he didn't have another 16-game stretch with two or fewer goals all season. But with a 4.8% shooting percentage that is begging to see positive regression, the Hurricanes should be concerned that Eichel is about to put more pucks in the back of the net.
Best of the rest
These are the Vegas and Carolina players outside the teams' combined top 11 in playoff GAR who had the most GAR during the regular season:
Mark Stone, Golden Knights RW: 2.2 PO GAR | 22.0 RS GAR
Sebastian Aho, Hurricanes F: 1.2 PO GAR | 18.7 RS GAR
Andrei Svechnikov, Hurricanes RW: 0.9 PO GAR | 17.5 RS GAR
Seth Jarvis, Hurricanes C: 1.3 PO GAR | 17.3 RS GAR
Shayne Gostisbehere, Hurricanes D: 2.1 PO GAR | 17.2 RS GAR
Nikolaj Ehlers, Hurricanes LW: 2.0 PO GAR | 17.1 RS GAR
Ivan Barbashev, Golden Knights C: 2.8 PO GAR | 15.5 RS GAR
Rasmus Andersson, Golden Knights D: 0.4 PO GAR | 15.4 RS GAR
Alexander Nikishin, Hurricanes D: 0.2 PO GAR | 12.5 RS GAR
Tomas Hertl, Golden Knights C: 1.3 PO GAR | 10.2 RS GAR