PARIS -- Aryna Sabalenka's bid for a first French Open title unraveled in stunning fashion Wednesday, as she let a commanding lead slip away and lost in the quarterfinal to Russian Diana Shnaider 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 in windy conditions at Roland Garros.
The world No. 1 led 6-3, 4-1 and was two points away from victory at 5-3, but Shnaider battled back brilliantly -- and as Sabalenka's game disintegrated, Shnaider stormed to victory.
The 25th seed, who had never been past the third round in a major before, will play unseeded Maja Chwalinska of Poland in the semis Thursday for a place in the final.
With Sabalenka gone, a first-time Grand Slam winner will be crowned. Here's what happened Wednesday -- and what might happen next.
Sabalenka struggled mentally
Although Sabalenka was in control at one set up, the Belarusian had already shown a few signs of vulnerability when she was pulled back from 5-1 to 5-3 in the opener. But from 4-1 up in the second, she suffered one of the most surprising collapses in recent history (Jannik Sinner's defeat here aside).
"I feel like I had very decent opportunities in the second set, I screwed up, and then she stepped in and she played great," Sabalenka said. "I feel like mentally I couldn't really recover after the second set. That was the biggest mistake from me. Mentally I got into a very deep, deep, dark hole and I just couldn't get back mentally on track."
The wind got to Sabalenka
With no rain in the forecast, the roof was open and the wind was a major factor. Even though Sabalenka was in total control at the beginning of the match, once she began to falter, it happened fast. The wind had been strong throughout and Sabalenka, with her flat groundstrokes offering little margin for error, began to break down. Her footwork, too, began to fail her, and her game fell apart.
She made 57 unforced errors in all, including 17 in the decider, winning just 14 points. Though her first serve percentage remained high, she won just 43% on first serve and 25% on second serve in the third set as Shnaider pulled away.
"I don't know why they would keep the roof open when it was crazy windy," Sabalenka said after the match. "But how can I complain if almost for the whole match everything was working OK for me, but then it just slipped away. I feel like it was getting crazy, maybe just because mentally I wasn't really OK."
Shnaider found the right balance
The left-handed Shnaider took her time to figure out how best to deal with Sabalenka in the wind. For a set and a half, she was knocked off the court by the power of the world No. 1's game. But as the wind picked up, her topspin gave her more margin and she used the angles cleverly to move Sabalenka around the court and force her to go for too much from awkward positions.
Shnaider's forehand up the line was particularly effective, while she wrong-footed Sabalenka on several occasions. She was also clutch under pressure, holding serve at 5-3 down in the second and then breaking Sabalenka when she served for the match.
In the third set, having worked things out, Shnaider changed the pace, spin and trajectory superbly and ran away with it.
"I feel like in the third set I finally found my rhythm and how to play, where to be more offensive and where to defend," she said.
So who wins the French Open title now?
Good question! Mirra Andreeva is the highest remaining seed at No. 8, while Marta Kostyuk is unbeaten in 17 matches on clay this year. But none of the four semifinalists have ever been to a Slam final, let alone won one, so whoever handles the nerves the better will be crucial.
With rain in the forecast, the roof might be closed for both Thursday matches, which would help Kostyuk, who hits flatter than the others. But Andreeva, Shnaider and her opponent, unseeded Polish player Maja Chwalinska, all play with plenty of spin and margin, changing the pace, so they will be tough to beat.
Andreeva is the only one of the four to have been in a Slam semifinal before, but on the evidence of this year's Roland Garros, predicting anything is a recipe for disaster.