Six Points: Saints a finals lock? Our final ladder predictor, plus the recruit of the year

          • Jake MichaelsJul 28, 2026, 04:41 PM ET
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              Jake Michaels is a Senior Writer who has worked at ESPN for 13 years. He writes on a range of sports in Australia and around the world, covering everything from AFL to boxing to tennis. He also covers the Olympic Games, as well as athletics and swimming world championships.
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          Each week of the 2026 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six big talking points.

          This week's Six Points feature my final ladder predictor, the recruit of the year(?), some rare support for Ross Lyon, and the Nick Watson stat that proves he's in rare air.

          Keep up to date with all the latest on Instagram @espnfooty!

          1. Blues definitely missing finals as Saints set to make it easily

          Just four weeks of the AFL home-and-away season remain. Who will play in September? Who will finish top four? And who will be contesting the inaugural wildcard finals?

          I've decided to stick my neck out and try answering each of these questions, picking every winner and margin of the final 36 games. Go on, whack it in a time capsule and come back to me in a month and let me know how I fared.

          Fremantle. Sydney. Brisbane. Hawthorn. That's my top four. I'm convinced the top four we currently have will be the same in four weeks' time. The only change I have is the Lions leapfrogging the Hawks into third spot.

          I've got Geelong and Adelaide missing out on a top four berth, but they also avoid slipping into the wildcard zone. The same cannot be said for the year's biggest surprise packet, Melbourne. I think they end up as the unlucky 7th-placed team and will have to host the Saints at the MCG in a wildcard final, though it could very easily be Collingwood. I've got the Magpies facing the Western Bulldogs in the other wildcard final.

          Of course, that means I have Carlton missing out. It's been a wild year for the Blues, but that 1-8 start will ultimately prove costly. With games against the Lions, Saints, Bulldogs, and Dockers to finish, it's possible they don't win again this season. Even if they do, one win almost certainly won't be enough. So show me the two games they're winning in the run home. Like the Blues, I've got GWS also falling short of a place in finals.

          2. Has Clayton Oliver been the recruit of the year?

          Okay, the short answer to this question is probably 'no' given Sydney recruit Charlie Curnow leads the Coleman Medal and the Swans have risen from 10th a year ago to second since he joined the club. But if we're talking about bang for your buck, bargain pick-ups, no player has been better than Clayton Oliver.

          Compared to what the Swans gave up for Curnow, crosstown rival GWS basically landed Oliver for nothing. The 2021 premiership star has had the most underrated year of anyone in the competition, returning to his destructive best and filling the seismic gap Tom Green left in the midfield after suffering a season-ending ACL injury in February.

          At the conclusion of Round 20, Oliver leads the league in clearances, ground ball wins, and contested possessions, and ranks third for total disposals. He's the only player in the competition averaging 15 contested possessions and 15 uncontested possessions a game for the year. Nobody else is close to reaching both of those numbers.

          In 2024, Champion Data rated Oliver as the 115th-best player in the game. Last year he climbed marginally to 78th. This season, Oliver is ranked at No. 22.

          If he keeps this up for another month, he's guaranteed to be in the All-Australian squad of 40. That in itself is quite remarkable given where Oliver was 12-18 months ago. But don't think the extended squad is his ceiling in 2026. I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he was rewarded with a fourth blazer ... and neither should you.

          3. Let me throw my support behind Ross Lyon

          I've been critical of Ross Lyon's press conference performances over the journey. Heck, who hasn't! But I really don't think he did much wrong in the now semi-viral media exchange following St Kilda's win over North Melbourne on Sunday afternoon.

          For five minutes Lyon was relentlessly quizzed on the status of key forward Max King, who injured his left hamstring and came from the field in his first appearance for the club in over two years. The Saints head coach answered each question and even avoided his usual frosty, smart aleck tone that can rub people the wrong way.

          But the same questions kept on coming, leading Lyon to finally blurt out: "How many times have I answered that question?! I don't understand why you're raising your voice!"

          He's right. At some point we need to move on to another aspect of the game. I don't know, maybe ask him about the club's star player becoming just the third person in league history to record 46 disposals and four goals.

          Unfortunately for King, scans revealed a torn left hamstring and the Saints were quick to draw a line through the remainder of his season on Monday afternoon.

          "It's an incredibly disappointing outcome for Max, who has done everything possible throughout his rehabilitation to put himself in the best position to return," said Lenny Hayes, St Kilda's general manager of football. "We'll continue to wrap our arms around him and provide all the support he needs as he works through this latest setback."

          4. The 2026 fixturing has been a disgrace

          If I had a dollar for every occasion I complained, or heard someone else complain, about the AFL fixture in 2026, I'd be somewhere close to Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's tax bracket.

          This season has been marred by abysmal fixturing. From the comical Opening Round and the fractured start it created to extended bye weeks and the endless overlapping of games, the league continues to leave fans scratching their heads at the scheduling incompetence. But we might yet have found something more egregious than all of that combined.

          How on earth has it taken so long to receive the full fixture for the final two rounds of the home and away season?!

          On Monday morning the league announced its State of Origin plans for the next THREE YEARS. Huh? Get your priorities in order. In what world does it make sense to know the State of Origin schedule for 2029 before the fixture of the final home-and-away rounds for this year?

          What's even more ridiculous is that on Tuesday, details of 10 of the 18 games were revealed. Just release it all!

          5. Something quirky I noticed

          This past weekend we had not one but two players reach the coveted 1000m of territory gained in a game mark. A tip of the hat to Sydney's Errol Gulden and St Kilda's Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera on reaching the milestone. I'll tip my hat to Nas a second time for becoming the first player to achieve the feat twice.

          The part I found quirky was that throughout the entirety of last season we had just three players reach the 1000m gained mark, but just like this past weekend, two of them occurred in the same round. Just a coincidence? Probably. But I like to think they're inspiring each other to the exclusive territory club.

          While we're at it, here's the full list of 1000m gained games in recorded history:

          6. My favourite stat of the week

          Hawks star Nick Watson has now strung together five consecutive games of at least three goals. The only other player in the league to manage that this season is teammate Jack Gunston (Rounds 1-7), while the last general forward to do it was Charlie Cameron more than four years ago!

          The streak might be set to extend to six games, too. Hawthorn faces North Melbourne this weekend, an opponent Watson has kicked three goals against in both of his prior meetings.

          Stats brought to you by StatMate.