LOS ANGELES -- How will history judge pitcher Jon Lester's debut season for the Chicago Cubs? With a little more than a month to go in 2015, it has been a somewhat baffling experience.
Saturday's 5-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers was yet another instance in which Lester looked both dominant and shaky in the same outing. After the game, he likened a baseball season to a roller coaster; that probably applies to him most of all.
"I felt like I was making good pitches," Lester said. "They're hit a little bit too hard or a little bit too soft right now. The good thing is I don't have to go back to the drawing board. My stuff was there."
He's not wrong -- at least, he wasn't for six innings. If his night ended right there, it would have been magnificent: four hits, no walks, seven strikeouts, one run. But then came the seventh inning, in which the Dodgers produced four straight hits to open the inning in turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead. Game over.
"He was on cruise control," catcher Miguel Montero said.
Until he wasn't.
"Whenever something like that happens, you really have to break it down and understand what happened," manager Joe Maddon said. "He wasn't pummeled."
Carl Crawford opened the inning with a single and then stole second. A.J. Ellis blooped one to right, then Jose Peraza doubled to the gap before Andre Ethier singled to right center. Lester thought the Dodgers changed their approach, and he didn't adjust in time, but Maddon was right as well. When you break it down, it wasn't all that bad -- plus he got little run support once again.
"Everything was there," Lester said. "Now maybe it's about a little bit of luck going my way."
The reason it's so difficult to rate Lester's season is it breaks down to a bunch of little things that can contribute to a game such as Saturday's going the wrong way. Three stolen bases add stress, as does a poor defensive play here and there. Plus, Lester is missing his personal catcher in David Ross. That played a factor as well, considering Montero doesn't have the same easy rapport with the lefty.
Sometimes Lester pitches around it, sometimes he gets some bad luck, and sometimes he just gets beat. The opposition's running game is a storyline, regardless of whether it's the determining factor in a game. Montero had all sorts of issues throwing runners out Saturday. Maddon thought he was rushing his throws.
"I have to rush," Montero said. "It's not much I can do. I try to do my best when you know they're going to go, and you have to make a perfect throw to maybe throw the guy out."
That doesn't sound like a catcher thrilled with the circumstances facing him on the base paths. Then there are the bunt plays. Lester had a chance to throw to second to get a force out on Peraza in the third inning with the Cubs leading 1-0, but he chose to underhand the ball to first instead. Peraza stole third and scored on an infield hit. You can't ask for more gifts in the inning, but if the Cubs win the game 2-1, no one is talking about it. The simple fact is sometimes the Cubs and Lester have to be too fine when he pitches; sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe his 3.59 ERA should be the simple storyteller of his season. That ranks 23rd in the National League among qualified pitchers.
"Balls are finding holes right now," Lester said.
This is why the argument about who pitches in a one-game playoff should be moot by now. You just can't get a predictable outcome when Lester takes the mound. It's not all his fault, but some of it is. Maybe it will be different in October, but you can't leave it to chance or good fortune.
Of course, the Cubs have to get there first. They've lost four in a row, and we haven't even discussed the offensive woes. But Saturday's game was there to be won, even if two runs were going to do it. The little things added up in the Dodgers' favor, and now the Cubs are staring at being swept.
"The season is a roller coaster," Lester said. "The good seasons are the ones where you can minimize the ups and downs."
The Cubs could use some minimizing right now.