A year after Detroit's deadline fire sale, Tigers feel ready to make a run

Rookie pitcher Michael Fulmer, acquired from the Mets at last year's trade deadline for Yoenis Cespedes, is one of the reasons the Tigers feel things are looking up for 2016 and beyond. Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

As the 2015 trade deadline approached, Dave Dombrowski knew his days as Detroit Tigers general manager were numbered. He had a good idea his contract would not be renewed and that he'd soon be looking for work elsewhere. Still, he did not deviate from what he believed was the appropriate course of action.

He didn't honestly believe Detroit was a playoff team, and so he made the decision to sell.

"In my heart, we weren't good enough to win at that time," Dombrowski, now the president of baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox, said during a lengthy dugout session with the media before the Tigers-Red Sox series earlier this week. "And that's what I ended up expressing."

Manager Brad Ausmus remembers the chain of events clearly.

Things were not exactly rosy for the Tigers, but they weren't completely dire, either. They still had David Price at the top of their rotation. Miguel Cabrera was hurt, but was poised to return soon. And former ace Justin Verlander was showing tangible signs of improvement. The team had the inkling that he had turned the proverbial corner, a hunch that would be confirmed in the weeks to come.

When Dombrowski, who had huddled with team brass in Tampa during a midseason series against the Rays to discuss the strategy, informed Ausmus of his decision, the skipper was disappointed, though not altogether surprised.

"I remember exactly where we were -- in Tampa, [Verlander] had just beat Chris Archer 2-1. ... Dave was running parallel paths before the decision was made -- buy or sell -- and after that game, I thought, OK, now maybe Ver has pitched a couple good games in a row, maybe we'll buy," Ausmus recalled earlier this week. "It was after the game that Dave told me he was going to sell and he explained the reasoning. And logically, it made sense."

That didn't make it any easier for Ausmus to digest. Dombrowski invited his manager to a meeting with the baseball operations contingent so he could explain his rationale. Ausmus declined. He had heard what he needed to hear. He didn't need further detail.

"I think, like pretty much any manager would say, I told him I thought it was a mistake," Ausmus said. "But, I understood why he was doing it."

And while it was a bitter pill to swallow at the time, there is no question that the jettisoning of key players that followed -- Price to the Toronto Blue Jays, Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets, Joakim Soria to the Pittsburgh Pirates -- yielded key assets for the future, some of whom have already made a significant imprint on the Tigers' 2016 season.

Michael Fulmer, acquired from the Mets, has slotted into the middle of the Tigers' rotation seamlessly amid a sensational rookie season. Both Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, prospects netted in the Price deal, have provided the Tigers needed pitching depth. JaCoby Jones, whom the Tigers received in the Soria swap, remains in the minors but shows promise as an athletic, versatile young talent.

The presence of the three pitchers added at last year's deadline is part of the reason why Ausmus feels more comfortable with the team's position heading into this year's deadline.

"We felt like we needed another starting pitcher last year and we really didn't have the pieces to get one," Ausmus said.

"I think we look at our starting pitchers differently this year in the sense that Fulmer kinda came on the scene. So you know you get [Jordan] Zimmermann back and healthy the next 10 days, [you have] Fulmer, Verlander, Zimmermann -- that's three pretty good guys at the top. And then we have Boyd, [Anibal] Sanchez, [Mike] Pelfrey, Norris -- if we can piece together something for the last two slots, you feel like you have a chance."

With the way Francisco Rodriguez has established himself as the team's steadfast closer -- he has converted 29 of 30 saves -- the bullpen feels solidified in ways that have been conspicuously lacking in recent years, even if the numbers don't bear it out.

The bullpen ERA is down from 4.34 through July last season to 4.31 right now, according to ESPN Stats & Information, though the peripherals are better (WHIP is down from 1.45 to 1.36; strikeout-to-walk ratio is up from 2.2 to 2.6).

Similarly, there's no notable differences in the starting pitching -- it has a slightly lower ERA through July (4.48 versus 4.53) but slightly worse peripherals (WHIP is up from 1.32 to 1.36, strikeout-to-walk ratio is down from 2.6 to 2.5).

General manager Al Avila is loath to give up pitching depth, which is part of why he believes the Tigers standing pat this year remains "the most realistic option."

The mere suggestion of the Tigers as sellers within the clubhouse is irksome. Both publicly and privately, players have expressed displeasure with such a premise.

To a man, there is the belief that the team can secure a postseason berth, if not by winning the division, then at least by snagging a wild-card spot.

Taking a look purely by the numbers reveals a Tigers team that is not significantly better -- at least statistically -- than last season.

This year's Tigers are hitting a lot more home runs -- 132 through July 27 this season (in 102 games) compared to 104 through the end of July last season (in 103 games). That has led to a small increase in scoring (from 4.5 runs per game to 4.7) despite a significant decrease in batting average (from .277 to .266).

The biggest difference is that the Tigers have been doing better in close games. So far this season, they're 25-20 in games decided by one or two runs; through July last season they were 23-24.

The path to the playoffs is markedly less challenging this year.

At the end of July last year, the Tigers were 11.5 games back in the AL Central and needed to jump five teams to claim a wild-card spot. This year, they're only 4.5 games back in the division and just two teams stand between them and a wild card.

The club's most recent sweep of the Red Sox only further emboldened the Tigers. After winning five of seven on the team's most recent road trip, there is the sense within that Detroit is starting to roll -- and will only get better when healthy.

Perhaps that will nudge Avila to rethink his stance approaching the trade deadline?

"You can't get caught up in the day-to-day," Ausmus said after the team's 4-3 win Wednesday night. "But the more we win going to the deadline certainly doesn't hurt."