SAN ANTONIO -- There are upsets, and then there are stunners. If the Memphis Grizzlies were to somehow knock off the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the NBA playoffs, it would qualify as the latter.
Memphis’ misfortunes have been well documented: Franchise center Marc Gasol is out for the season with a broken foot. Stalwart point guard Mike Conley was knocked out by a sore Achilles. And that’s just the stars; Memphis cycled through an unbelievable 28 players just to get through the regular season.
When Memphis embarks on its unlikely quest to upset the Spurs in Sunday’s Game 1, only four of the 12 players coach Dave Joerger had at his disposal in the Grizzlies’ season opener back in October will be available. And that could drop to three if defensive star Tony Allen is unable to go because of the sore hamstring that kept him out of the last three regular-season games. Not that Joerger is letting any of this get him down.
“It’s been a great group of guys to be around,” Joerger said after Sunday’s shootaround. “They are competitive.”
When your two primary point guards (veteran Jordan Farmar and rookie Xavier Munford) weren’t even in the NBA at the season’s outset, it’ll take more than effort to beat the 67-win Spurs. Especially at the AT&T Center, where San Antonio won 40 of 41 during the season. But effort is a good place to start. With that in mind, let’s look at three areas in which the Grizzlies have to excel in order to have any shot over the next four games.
1. Feed offense with defense
The Grizzlies led the league in forced-turnover percentage, and given the Spurs’ propensity for smothering teams in the half court, the Grizzlies are going to need to turn San Antonio miscues into transition points. Alas, that’s easier said than done since the Spurs execute their offensive sets with the precision of a NASA countdown. It doesn’t help that Allen might not be entirely in ship shape.
Complicating the pressure-the-ball initiative even more is the fact that with LaMarcus Aldridge aboard, the Spurs have morphed back into the low-possession, low-turnover team they used to be when Tim Duncan was in his prime. San Antonio ranked ninth in offensive turnover rate and, according to NBA.com/stats, allowed the fewest points off turnovers in the league.
“Best team in the league,” Zach Randolph said. “Best coach in the league. It’s going to be a test.”
2. Don't forget about the paint
Memphis allowed the NBA’s lowest per-game average of points in the paint during the season. However, San Antonio ranked just three spots lower, and it’ll be more crucial for the Grizzlies to maintain an offensive paint presence than the Spurs, who have better outside shooters.
“It’s important,” Randolph said about maintaining a paint presence on offense. “Their defense is so good. We have to hit shots and be strong.”
3. Get off to fast starts
The Spurs were great overall this season, of course, but they were an especially vicious first-half team. According to NBA.com, the Spurs outscored teams by 13.2 points in the first half this season and were plus-16.5 during the first half of their 67 wins. Memphis was down by 14 after one quarter in both of its losses to the Spurs in late March.
The Spurs allowed just 91.5 points per 100 possessions in the first half this season, a figure that dwarfs San Antonio’s league-best 96.6 overall defensive rating, itself a historically good result. So the Spurs don’t get off to great offensive starts so much as they prevent the opposition from having one. Memphis must hang in early if it wants to have any shot in this series.
“It’s good for our confidence to go out and get off to a quick start,” Joerger said. “We have to be able to score the basketball.”
No matter how you slice it, Memphis needs an awful lot to go right over the next two weeks, and these areas are only a start. (What about matching San Antonio’s powerful bench? What about keeping the Spurs off the foul line?) Quite simply, the Grizzlies have to do everything right.
“[You have to] be perfect,” Matt Barnes said. “Absolutely perfect if you want to come here in a playoff game and steal one in San Antonio. Your room for error is nonexistent.”