Raise the Jolly Roger, the Pittsburgh Pirates are making a race of it in the National League Central. After Sunday's 7-6 walk-off win in 11 innings, the Bucs have picked up four games on the St. Louis Cardinals in a month. With three weeks to make up the last 2.5 games, will they be able to exchange their overwhelmingly likely wild-card invitation to October for a division crown?
At first glance, the odds may not seem to favor them, ranging from 20-25 percent as calculated in the Playoffs Odds Reports of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and analyst Clay Davenport. But I’m here to tell you that’s a 1-in-4 shot you don’t want to bet against, even though the Pirates have to play seven of their remaining 21 games against the Chicago Cubs. Here are my five reasons why you’ll want to pick the Pirates to come from behind and win their first division title since 1992.
1. They’re the hottest of the three teams in the NL Central: The Pirates have gone 20-10 in their past 30, compared to the Cardinals' 16-14 record in that same stretch. And a big part of the reason why has been pitching -- they’ve given up a run per game less than the Cardinals, just 106 runs allowed to the Birds’ 136. You can add in the Cards’ recent offensive struggles, scoring just 23 runs in their 10 games before Sunday’s 9-2 win over the Reds, a stretch in which they lost eight of 10 games. In that same stretch, the Cubs are 18-12, but their games have been more sloppy slugfests with the Cubs plating 164 runs while allowing 140.
2. They’re finally healthy and firing on all cylinders on offense: Getting super-utility-man Josh Harrison back in the lineup paid off on Sunday as he plated the game-winner. They also have defensive specialist Jordy Mercer back for duties at shortstop. Because Jung Ho Kang has already earned an everyday job with his performance in Mercer’s absence, that has pushed Harrison off third base and into consideration for at-bats at second base or left field, while sending Aramis Ramirez back into a job-sharing arrangement at first base with Pedro Alvarez. That’s just as well, because having everybody back allows manager Clint Hurdle the flexibility to play matchup games in the lineup -- exploiting advantages such as Alvarez and Kang rating among the best fastball hitters in baseball, for example -- while preserving his best possible defensive combinations.
In contrast for the Cardinals, Matt Holliday is still on the shelf, and key up-the-middle players Kolten Wong, Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta have all stumbled, with Peralta doing worst -- a .595 OPS getting days off for “fatigue.”
3. It’s an open competition in the rotation for starts in the postseason: Gerrit Cole is obviously the Pirates’ No. 1, but with A.J. Burnett back in action, the Pirates have an in-house competition on their hands to see who would be the No. 2 -- or the Game 1 starter in the National League Division Series if they play and win the wild card. The ripple effect of that leaves Charlie Morton and lefties J.A. Happ and Jeff Locke pitching for at least the fourth slot if Burnett proves he’s good to go the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are necessarily worried over whether key starters such as Carlos Martinez and Lance Lynn are running out of gas.
4. The Pirates have more at stake than the Cubs: That’s obvious just by looking at the standings, with the Cubs four games behind Pittsburgh. The Cubs' odds of doing anything more than earning a wild card are extremely low. While nobody would bet against the Cubs in a one-game playoff with Jake Arrieta on the mound, he should start just four of the Cubs’ remaining 20 games. Two of those starts will be against the Pirates, though, which brings me to the last reason.
5. Last season’s one-and-done October experience is something most of these guys will remember: Arrieta has already thrown three seven-inning quality starts against the Pirates, allowing just two runs total and 15 baserunners while striking out 19. What team wouldn't want to avoid putting their entire future at risk by going up against that? After being Madison Bumgarner's first postseason victim last October in the NL wild-card game, do you think the Pirates want to face this year’s guy who has probably been baseball’s best starting pitcher down the stretch, and risk repeating the experience?
Christina Kahrl writes about MLB for ESPN. You can follow her on Twitter.