As the Los Angeles Angels travel to Houston to face the Astros, we’ll be treated to a three-game showdown between the team people counted out at the All-Star break and the team many people only grudgingly counted in. Neither team has played well in the past month, as both teams are 14-16 in their past 30 games. However, the Astros hold a slender advantage over the Angels and Twins for the last open playoff slot (assuming the Yankees will be able to stay out of range of either).
So, with this representing the Angels’ best shot at keeping themselves in the October conversation, what’s in store for the series?
The Starting Pitchers: This already isn’t in the Angels’ favor because Garrett Richards and rookie Andrew Heaney both had to pitch against the Twins and won’t be available to start in this series.
Monday Jered Weaver vs. Dallas Keuchel: It’s a super slo-mo showdown, as Weaver is the slowest non-knuckleballing right-hander in the majors, averaging under 85 mph on his fastball and 77.4 mph on his mix of slow heat, changeups and breaking stuff, while Keuchel also spends his time under 90 mph with his mix of sinkers, sliders, cutters and changeups. Weaver isn’t going to fool people with any great regularity and has managed just four quality starts in his eight turns since he came back from the DL, while Keuchel is trying to overcome last week’s rout at the hands of the Rangers. Oh, and Keuchel's 13-0 at home.
Tuesday Hector Santiago vs. Lance McCullers: What initially looked like a breakout season for Santiago has had the shine rubbed off by his tumble in the second half with just four quality starts in 12 turns while giving up 6.1 runs per nine; his average fastball velocity has also sank below 90 mph in that time, which is crucial for a guy who basically lives and dies with fastball location and changing speeds. Add in his 12 home runs allowed in his past 57 2/3 IP, and facing the homer-happy Astros in Houston may not be the ideal matchup for the lefty. In contrast, McCullers has rattled off four quality starts in his past five while pumping gas in the 93-97 mph range.
Wednesday Nick Tropeano (?) vs. Mike Fiers: This will be another slow-down showdown, as Tropeano -- if he gets the assignment -- lives with a fastball around 91 mph with changeups and sliders, while Fiers works high and inside with 90-mph heat to set up changeups and a big, bending curve. Tropeano hasn’t thrown a quality start in his four turns since his promising Angels debut, so depending on how the previous pair of games work out for the Angels, manager Mike Scioscia might go for a quick hook at the first sign of trouble. Outside of the rare no-hit bid, Fiers gets hooked around 100 pitches but has paid the Astros back for that limit with a 24 percent strikeout rate since coming over from the Brewers on July 30.
The Lineups: Consider this an unequal combat between the best hitter in the league and the Astros because Mike Trout isn’t getting much help lately. Since the All-Star break, the Angels have posted an MLB-low .292 OBP, and an AL-low .296 wOBA and .143 Isolated Power rate. The only guy doing regular damage since the break has been Trout with a .903 OPS, but they’ve gotten some power from C.J. Cron (.207 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (.198). Perhaps the only additional good news is David Freese’s .788 OPS since he came back from the DL. Albert Pujols (.631 OPS) and Erick Aybar (.569) have been mired in multi-month slumps. So it really might depend on Trout to have a monster series, and you can hope his league-best performance against fastballs below 91 mph, cutters and changeups (1.435 OPS combined) will provide big early results before the Astros get into their bullpen.
The Astros have fallen a little off in terms of their power-speed attack in the second half, with their getting caught an MLB-high 21 times on their 62 stolen-base attempts cutting into that. While they put their best and most consistent offensive performers -- Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa -- on the field, they don’t try to get too cute outside of the running game; they don’t have many levers to pull on offense. Instead, they count on the long ball to plate a huge chunk of their runs, as homers are responsible for 47.9 percent of their runs scored (second in MLB behind the Yankees), aided by an MLB-leading 126 solo shots this season. As a lineup, they might be best epitomized by all-or-nothing contributors such as Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus. Give them a cookie, and they’ll hurt you from pretty much anywhere in the lineup.
The Bullpens: On the year, the Astros' pen might look tough to top with a 3.16 ERA (third in the American League) while throwing just 424 innings (13th) and allowing a league-low .629 OPS and .279 wOBA. But that takes into account good deeds long since done, and lately, that’s been a step down from that. In the second half, the Astros' relief crew has a 3.96 ERA (ranking ninth) and their runners-left-on-base percentage of 68.7 percent is second-worst in the league, and opposing hitters are cranking out a .686 OPS. In short, they’re not as dominating as they were early on.
On the other hand, the Angels aren’t well-equipped to exploit the advantage. They’re both short-handed -- with key set-up man Joe Smith hurt after allowing an .850 OPS in 29 games in the second half -- and struggling, as closer Huston Street has blown a couple of saves while allowing a dozen runs in 24 innings pitched in the second half. Scioscia has leaned pretty heavily on rookie Trevor Gott and his heavy 97-mph fastball down the stretch, but Gott doesn’t get a ton of swings and misses with it. One interesting usage pattern is Scioscia generally doesn’t go to lefties Cesar Ramos and Jose Alvarez unless he’s already down.
The Skippers: Astros skipper A.J. Hinch has been a great fit, avoiding much tactical chicanery and handling a variegated rotation with care. He aims for wins on the lineup card and careful bullpen use. For the Angels, Scioscia is one of the few AL managers willing to order an intentional walk on defense, but reflecting the fashion of the day he doesn’t go crazy with it. He has tried to exploit platoon advantages with the veterans he was given to shore up the lineup around the trade deadline, but David Murphy, David DeJesus and Shane Victorino haven’t produced much since coming over; it’s one of the few areas Scioscia can try to make an impact with a lineup that lacks speed as well as baserunners to try to manufacture runs.
The call: After last week’s devastating four-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers to fall out of first place, the Astros rebounded to take two of three from the A’s. They’re at home, where they’re 50-25, and they’re not just playing to protect a wild-card slot; they’re closer to Texas (1.5 back) in the AL West than the Angels are to them (2.5). Considering the decent advantages the Astros have as far as the pitching matchups, a romp here might not just put the Angels away to stay, it might answer questions over whether Houston is resilient enough to win the West after all.
Christina Kahrl writes about MLB for ESPN. You can follow her on Twitter.