Have you ever watched a game and thought: "That team is way better than the score suggests." Or the opposite: "Geez, I cannot believe that team is unbeaten."
Of course you have. It's the eternal battle of eye test versus stat sheet, or as we're calling it, man versus metric. ESPN Stats & Information analytics writer Sharon Katz takes a run through some of the more debatable data, and then ESPN senior writer Mark Schlabach offers his take.
Let's just say they agreed to disagree ... but their conversation is worth reading.
Tennessee has a 56 percent chance to beat Florida
Sharon Katz: The Football Power Index (FPI) is 2-1 versus "the man" in its game projections this season, with its only loss coming after a 17-point collapse by Tennessee against Oklahoma. FPI does not hold grudges, though, so it favors the Vols in Gainesville this weekend. After losing 10 straight games to Florida, why does FPI think Tennessee can get over the hump in 2015? The main difference when evaluating Florida and Tennessee is their offensive efficiency. In Week 1, the Gators appeared to have solved their offensive issues, but the past two weeks they have regressed with a below-average offensive efficiency. FPI expects Tennessee's offense to add about six more points to its scoring margin than Florida's, and even accounting for the Gators' elite defense, that should be enough to win in Gainesville. On a side note, if Tennessee loses again, this may be the last time it makes an appearance in this column.
Mark Schlabach: History suggests the Volunteers don't have a chance at beating the Gators in The Swamp on Saturday. Florida has defeated Tennessee 10 straight times, including a 10-9 victory at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville last season. Let's face it: If UT couldn't beat UF last season, it might never beat the Gators again. When the SEC puts together highlights of its greatest games, Florida's one-point victory over the Vols from last season definitely won't be included. The teams combined for six turnovers and fewer than 500 yards of offense. UT blew a 9-0 lead in the fourth quarter. Florida was there for the taking, but the Volunteers couldn't finish the deal, which seems to be a long-running theme under coach Butch Jones.
Michigan State is ranked 16th in FPI
Sharon Katz: There is a long-running joke in the Stats & Info group that FPI doesn't respect Michigan State, as FPI has consistently rated the Spartans behind the polls over the past few years. Based on their wins, the Spartans likely deserve their No. 2 ranking in the AP Poll, but given how they won those games, FPI does not rank them as one of the 15 strongest teams in the nation. Michigan State won by 13 against Western Michigan, 14 against Air Force and three against an Oregon team that was a dropped pass away from upsetting them in East Lansing. Based on those final scores, Michigan State did not meet FPI or Vegas' pregame expectations (in terms of points spread) in any of those games. The Spartans deserve credit for an impressive résumé (they rank high in ESPN's résumé metrics), but on a neutral field they may not be one of the top teams in the country.
Mark Schlabach: We interrupt this column for a public service announcement: If Michigan State is the No. 16 team in the country, something is seriously wrong with FPI. Seriously, I can't count the teams better than Michigan State on one hand after three weeks of the season. In fact, I have the Spartans ranked No. 1 in ESPN's Power Rankings. If we're going to penalize MSU for not beating the spread against Western Michigan, Air Force and Oregon, then defending national champion Ohio State doesn't deserve to be in the top 25. I think Michigan State has been much more impressive than the Buckeyes (No. 6 in FPI), who won at Virginia Tech only pulling away after Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer broke his collarbone and then struggled to put away Northern Illinois last week. FPI has five teams that have already lost ranked ahead of the Spartans, including No. 15 Oregon. That doesn't make sense.
Texas has a 75 percent chance to miss bowl season
Sharon Katz: After a heartbreaking 45-44 loss to California, Texas is 1-2 and in real jeopardy of missing a bowl. According to FPI, there is a 75 percent chance that Texas does not win six games and a 40 percent chance it starts 1-5. The Longhorns have shown strides, particularly on offense, in their last two games, but looking at their schedule, where do you see five more wins? FPI projects that Texas will win about 3.7 more games, with its most likely wins coming versus Kansas, at Iowa State and versus Kansas State (only remaining games with more than a 50 percent chance to win). With a tough road schedule, the Longhorns may be in a must-win situation at home against Oklahoma State this weekend, which is not a good situation to be in three weeks into the season.
Mark Schlabach: I agree that the Longhorns face a serious uphill climb in making the postseason. The way in which Texas lost to California -- missing an extra-point kick in the closing seconds -- is what concerns me most. How will Texas respond to such a disappointing loss? At the same time, the Longhorns have to be excited about quarterback Jerrod Heard, who set a UT single-game record with 527 yards of total offense against the Bears. If Heard keeps improving, there's no reason to believe the offense won't be able to score a lot of points in the pass-happy Big 12. It's going to be difficult to get to 6-6, but I can see the Longhorns beating Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech. That's four victories. Charlie Strong's team is capable of stealing a couple of more victories, starting with Saturday's home game against Oklahoma State.