Varun Chakravarthy's four costliest bowling analyses in T20Is have come against South Africa, two of them in Ahmedabad in the last two-and-a-half months. Six of his nine costliest analyses have ocurred in this span.
He has conceded 20 of his 60 career sixes in this period of 10 matches, going for two sixes per match as opposed to 1.33 previously. In these matches, Varun has gone at 8.47 an over, only slightly better than India's overall economy rate of 8.75. Before this, these numbers were 6.74 and 7.70.
It is, of course, a small sample size, but in these two-and-a-half months Varun hasn't been all that much better than the average bowler involved in his matches. On Saturday, the eve of India's virtual T20 World Cup quarter-final against West Indies, assistant coach Ryan ten Doeschate acknowledged that teams are playing Varun differently, which might bring about newer strategies both from the team and Varun.
Ten Doeschate didn't say what it was that batting teams, especially South Africa but also New Zealand and Zimbabwe, have done differently in recent games, but there is a trend that might be a cause for concern. Varun is still not letting batters charge him, he is still not getting swept excessively, and he is not allowing easy cuts and pulls, but he is getting step-hit for boundaries. A step-hit is when a batter doesn't have to sweep or charge or use the depth of the crease: just plant the front foot down and hit down the ground. In T20 cricket, a step-hit is what spinners strive to avoid the most.
The worry is not that Varun is overpitching and offering slot balls. Because he isn't. He has been staying in the T20 good length of 5-7m - slightly shorter than the Test good length of 4-6m - for two-thirds of the time. The change in recent times is that, starting with South Africa, batters have started to step-hit even his good-length balls. In theory you are taking a risk trying to hit boundaries without getting to the pitch of the ball, but the batters are backing themselves.
Faf du Plessis and Varun Aaron the big partnership
During this World Cup, South Africa's David Miller step-hit Varun from 5.3m and Dewald Brevis from 4.9m. These are not especially tall batters. Fifteen of the 20 sixes Varun has gone for in this period have been off the front foot: these haven't been sweeps, charges out of the crease, pulls or cuts.
Could it be that batters have started to gamble on the idea that Varun doesn't get too much sideways deviation off the pitch, and take the liberty of playing him like a medium-pacer? Varun resurrected his career by focusing more on overspin, which bring him dip and bounce. Both his legbreak and wrong'un deviate sideways only so much, and he keeps the stumps in play at high pace.
There was a good reason why he focused more on overspin, but like with everything there is a trade-off. So far, what Varun has gained from overspin has outweighed the cons, which batters might only just be catching onto.
If this is indeed the case, the next challenge for Varun at his IPL home ground could be something to follow closely. Eden Gardens is a six-hitting ground, and West Indies are a six-hitting team with tall batters with long reach.
Ten Doeschate hinted that Varun's introduction point might be tinkered with, possibly allowing him a deeper field to start off with as opposed to the one powerplay over he is used to bowling. Varun himself will be working hard on coming up with ways to make sure this is just a brief bump in his journey. Keep a close eye on how he bowls on Sunday.