This is a fantasy article. The last time I embarked on a fantasy theme was when I wrote a brace of articles on an imaginary journey around the globe on a Tardis Time Machine and a Gulfstream G800, moving simultaneously in both space and time, watching historic Test matches across 150 years of Test cricket.
This is a totally different universe - historic, cricket-related, and fantasy-driven, but a sobering and poignant one.
On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip assassinated the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo and this ignited World War I a month later. The war lasted five years and caused the loss of around 25-30 million of combat personnel and civilians. It was indeed the greatest tragedy the world had seen until that time. The Second World War was triggered by Hitler's invasion of Poland in 1939. This war lasted six years and caused the tragic loss of over 75 million people.
I would never want to trivialise the loss of such a magnitude. It is our collective prayer that their souls rest in peace. Some of our readers would have lost their earlier generational relatives and acquaintances to the wars and all our thoughts are with them. Let us first recognise that had it not been for the wars, over 100 million people would not have lost their lives. Nothing else can even come close to this.
This article is about the way the stats in Test cricket would have changed in the absence of the two wars. This is a "what if" exercise on steroids. Which are the Test series that would have been played, what would have happened to players' careers, who would have played more Tests, who would have started earlier, who would have finished later, and so on.
I have had this special article on my action list for some time. However, the age of the players is an integral part of the analyses. And, as readers will know, I have been able to compile a trustworthy date-of-birth database only recently. The date of birth and age of the player provide a new dimension to my analysis and opens up new avenues.
Let me start with World War II - the one that is recent history to most of us. Also, the concerned players are known to many of us and some of us have even watched them.
World War II: Test series
In this step, I determine the Test series that would have been played had there been no Second World War. This is not an automated process. It can only be a manual facts-driven derivation. What is set in stone is that Australia toured England in 1938, England toured South Africa in 1938-39, and West Indies toured England in 1939. Post war, Australia toured New Zealand in 1945-46, India toured England in 1946, England toured Australia and New Zealand in 1946-47, and South Africa toured England in 1947. I have put together a possible plan for the period 1940-45. It is, of course, possible for each country to come with their own plan but this is my own common-sense-driven plan.
The whole schedule is centred around Ashes series. In 1938, Australia toured England and, in 1946-47, England went down under. To maintain the balance of Ashes tours, I fit in four tours - two in England and two in Australia, in that order. Then I fill in the remaining English summers and South Africa, West Indies, New Zealand and India winters. I keep in mind the fact that South Africa would not have played India and West Indies and that New Zealand played very little.
We now come to a special situation of a politico-socio-historic nature. This relates to the subcontinent. It is common knowledge that India's freedom and the subsequent Partition would have happened a few years earlier but for the onset of the Second World War. I will make an assumption that India would have gained independence in 1942, five years earlier, and make a fourth-dimension projection and estimate that Pakistan would have played two series: one against India and another against England.
Given below is a summary of the additional Tests that would have been played by the teams.
World War II: players
The first step is to identify the players who would have played Tests during this period. I start with a huge set of 264 players who played during 1930-39. The fact that the concerned players were at different stages of their careers makes this a very intriguing process.
Any player who ended his career before 1935 is excluded. He has retired too early for him to have played during the War years.
Then I determine his age on January 1, 1940. If he would have been 40 or more on this date, he would not have played during the War years since he would have been too old, and is excluded.
There are still too many. But I am not interested in players like Laurie Nash, who played two Tests in 1937. The player has to have done something in his career to qualify, so I look at career-qualifying marks and I quickly realise that this has to vary from country to country. What applies to England cannot work for India. After a lot of trial and error, I get the following criteria for selection:
Australia: Career Runs>=1000 or Career Wkts>=50
England: Career Runs>=1500 or Career Wkts>=50
South Africa: Career Runs>=1000 or Career Wkts>=50
Other countries: Career Runs>=500 or Career Wkts>=25
Finally, I need a specific inclusion of wicketkeepers who fit the bill. In the end, I have a total of 48 players from the pre-war period. Now we move on to the other side of the war. Select those players who would have started their careers earlier than 1945. This time the process is a little different.
I look at those players who made their debut in the period 1945-50. Then I determine their age on January 1, 1940. If they would have been below 16 on this date, they would not have played during the war years since they would have been too young and are excluded. But I keep this a flexible process so that someone who was 20 in 1943 is considered for inclusion. Because of the fuzzy nature of the player selection process, it is quite possible that I miss a qualifying player or two. The readers could include players of their choice since there is a fair amount of slack in my selections.
Now, I do the same exclusion based on career values. The limits are almost the same as for the pre-war players. And I do the same wicketkeeper selection for those teams for whom I do not have wicketkeepers.
For Pakistan, I select the players from the early 1950s, who could have played for them in these two series. I now have 34 players from the post-war period. Finally, I am left with a total of 82 players, for seven countries. The projections for World War II are shown below.
World War 2: The player-matches matrix
Now comes the tricky part of fitting the players into the Tests. Rather than go Test by Test, I take a player and match him to the Tests using various factors - what stage of his career the batter was in, his age as on 1940, and any other personal factors associated with the player. The idea is to cover all the following possibilities.
Don Bradman, who was in the last third of his career when the war started
Len Hutton, who was in the first quarter of his career when the war started
Wally Hammond, who would have played very few Tests after the war started
Stan McCabe, who was at the mid-point of his career
Denis Compton, who played almost all his Tests after 1940
Neil Harvey, who was too young to have played before 1945
and other special career-status situations.
I work on the basis that someone like Bradman would skip one of the less significant series in recognition of his growing age, and that Hutton, Keith Miller, and Compton would play all the series. That Hammond and Eddie Paynter would have played in a series or two. That new players would have come in at different stages depending on their ages. I do this by player, and use my common sense to decide on the number of additional Tests the player would have played. I do not necessarily cover all the places. I leave some room for induction of other players. I am not featuring this matrix here since there are too many players. The numbers are incorporated in the projections featured later.
I am only concerned with the additional runs that the player would have scored and additional wickets that he would have taken in these new Tests. The averages do not really matter. These values are likely to remain more or less the same. And there is no clear way to do a sound projection. To calculate the projected runs and wickets, I use the Career Runs per Test and Wickets per Test values. This is the fairest way of doing the projection, irrespective of the stage of the career the player is in - early, middle or late. The additional Tests are likely to mirror the rest of his career.
World War II: The projections
I have featured only those who have finished with a projected career of over 5000 runs or 250 wickets. The complete list can be viewed/downloaded by clicking here. The projections are summarised later in the article.
World War I: Test series and team allocations
The situation is somewhat different as far as WWI is concerned. The overall procedure is more or less the same, but for the following points:
Only three countries played during this period - Australia, England and South Africa. One good thing was that, unlike in later periods, all the three teams played among themselves regularly. However, they played less frequently. There was no mandatory English summer season, or a winter season either. There were years when very few Tests were played. Since all travel was done by ship, it was not possible to fit in frequent tours.
There was a Triangular series featuring all three teams in England in 1912, and a series in South Africa in 1913-14. Post-War, there was an Ashes series in Australia in 1920-21 and another in England in 1921, within six months.
Based on the above, the additional Test series that would have been played between 1913 and 1920 are listed below. Also, the number of additional Tests that the three countries would have played.
When it comes to arriving at a qualifying set of batters, the work is almost the same as done for World War II. I look at all players who were active as on January 1, 1910. Anyone who played his last Test before this date does not qualify since he would have been inactive for over five years. The other key date is January 1, 1914. I do the same work as I have explained under WWII - under 40 on this date for those who played their last match during or after 1910. Or over 17 for those who made their debuts after January 1, 1920.
And since I am not interested in John McLaren, who played a single Test in 1912, I apply similar filters based on career numbers and select the players. We are left with a total of 42 players for the three countries. The projections for World War I are shown below. A special reference to the great Sydney Barnes, who was past 40 in 1915 and would not have played in these Tests.
World War I: The projections
I have featured only those who have finished with a projected career of over 4000 runs or 200 wickets. The complete list can be viewed/downloaded by clicking here.
Final summary
Some of the significant potential changes are outlined below. The figures in parentheses indicate their actual career values.
World War II
Bradman would have been the first batter to go past 10,000 Test runs (6996). It is quite possible that he might even have finished with a batting average of 100-plus. Sunil Gavaskar would have had to be satisfied to be the third to reach the exalted 10,000-run mark. Hutton would also have reached the 10,000 mark a few years later (6971). Hammond and Compton would have gone well past 8000 Test runs (7249/5807).
Alec Bedser would have reached 300 wickets and would have been the first to reach 400 (236) as well. That would have been a great achievement. Richard Hadlee would have been the second.
Miller would have been the first allrounder to cross 4000 runs and 250 wickets (2958 and 170). There would have been no way to exclude his name from the list of great allrounders.
Godfrey Evans would have crossed 300 dismissals and scored over 3000 runs. This would have been one heck of an achievement.
Vinoo Mankad would have been the first Indian to get the 2000/200 double.
Fazal Mahmood would have crossed 150 wickets by playing in these early Tests.
George Headley would have gone past 3000 Test runs, possibly at the same 60-plus average.
World War I
Jack Hobbs would have gone well past 7000 Test runs (5410). His opening partner, Herbert Sutcliffe, would have reached nearly 7000 runs (4555). Clem Hill, born right in the middle of the first ever Test, would have reached nearly 5000 runs.
Claire Grimmett would have been the first to reach 300 Test wickets (216). Not Fred Trueman. Tich Freeman would have tripled his meagre tally of 66 wickets to over 200 wickets. Maurice Tate would have crossed 250 wickets (155).
Captaincy
Bradman and Hutton would have increased their captaincy count to over 50 Tests each.
Now, for the prominent qualifying Test cricketers who died during the wars, all of them when they were young. Five Test cricketers lost their lives in the Second World War, and nine in the First World War. And a number of first-class cricketers from all over the world laid down their lives. They should never be forgotten.
Colin Blythe, that magnificent English spinner, who was killed in military action in Belgium in 1917, would have reached 200 wickets (100). Albert Cotter, that ferocious Australian fast bowler, who was killed during 1917 in military action in Beersheba, would have reached 131 wickets (89).
Hedley Verity, that English spinner extraordinaire, who died during 1943 in a hospital in Italy due to serious injuries sustained in battle, would have reached 220 wickets (144). Finally, Ken Farnes, who died in a training plane accident during 1941, would have taken 120 wickets (60).
I close this fascinating once-in-a-lifetime fantasy voyage with a renewed homage to all the people, in combat or otherwise, who lost their lives during those fateful dozen years of the 20th century.
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