The Buffalo Bills head to Jacksonville as a road favorite in Sunday's first matchup. But let's not sleep on a Jacksonville Jaguars team with Trevor Lawrence playing his best football as a pro.
We'll look at both sides of the matchup to give you our best bets to place for this AFC wild-card game.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Bills have the ball
Bowen: Quarterback Josh Allen will have to make plays Sunday, using his high-level dual-threat traits to create conflict for the Jacksonville defense. But the run game approach from Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady matters, too, which means volume for running back James Cook III. And Buffalo can set up Cook on zone run schemes versus a tough Jags defensive front.
Edge: Bills
Best bet: Cook over 78.5 rushing yards (-113). Cook rushed for over 100 yards in four of his past six full games played, and he had at least 16 carries in each. Bet on the volume and Cook's ability to create explosive plays as a runner (39 rushes of 10 or more yards this season).
When the Jaguars have the ball
Bowen: Lawrence has thrown with much more rhythm in coach Liam Coen's scheme, finding the windows at multiple levels of the field. With the Bills utilizing two-high coverage (52.9% of opponent dropbacks), I expect Coen to set up Lawrence with in-breaking concepts that target schemed voids. Plus, the run game focus also matters here, with Travis Etienne Jr. working against a Bills front that allowed 5.1 YPC this season, the third most in the league.
Edge: Jaguars
Best bet: Brenton Strange over 3.5 receptions (-103): Strange can work the underneath levels on crossers and flat routes, and Coen will scheme for his tight end in the red zone area of the field. Strange has five or more receptions in two of his past three games.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Total points UNDER 51.5 (-108)
Maldonado: Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and runs the ball on half its snaps, draining clock by design. The Jags' post-bye scoring jump came against teams with bottom-tier quarterbacks, while the Bills have allowed one quarterback all season to throw for more than two scores. Fewer drives, red zone resistance and pace point below the total.
Solak: While these are two excellent offenses, both will be taking more methodical routes to points in this one. Expect Buffalo to heavily test Jacksonville's run defense with multi-TE and FB sets, which will create a running clock. Jacksonville will have to check the ball down more often against a cautious Bills pass defense, or otherwise run it at a higher clip than they did for much of November and December. With a few red zone stops, this game won't have enough time to get over 51 points.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-115)
Loza: Lawrence's mobility was unlocked midseason, as the Jaguars' quarterback rushed for the fifth-most yards (246) from Weeks 9 through 18. He averaged over 26 rushing yards per contest in games he played in full during that span. He figures to get loose versus a Bills defense that allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs.
Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-110)
Moody: The Jaguars would be wise to lean on Etienne and their running game behind an offensive line that finished the regular season ranked sixth in run block win rate. A successful rushing attack would keep a Bills offense that ranks fourth in total yards and tied for fourth in points scored off the field. Etienne has cleared this line in five of his past 10 games, and Buffalo's defensive front ranks 22nd in run stop win rate.
Greg Rousseau UNDER 0.25 sacks (-137)
Walder: Rousseau is a solid player and has 7.0 sacks on the season, but his pass rush win rate quietly almost halved from last season (15.1%) to this (7.6%), moving him to well below average for a starting edge rusher. Plus, for the first time in Lawrence's pro career, he has a good offensive line in front of him, with the Jaguars ranking ninth in pass block win rate this season. And the tackles Rousseau will be facing, Anton Harrison and Cole Van Lanen, are solid, each with slightly above average PBWRs. I make the under -205.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Check out our DFS cheat sheet for wild-card weekend.
Loza's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): James Cook III ($15,600). It's hard not to slot in Allen here, but Cook is a viable option. The 26-year-old led the position in rushing yards while amassing a respectable 291 receiving yards this season. His dual-threat ability, particularly on a team with inconsistent pass catchers, figures to shine as he faces a Jaguars defense that allowed the eighth-most grabs to running backs in the regular season.
Also in my lineup: Travis Etienne Jr. ($14,400). Buffalo's greatest defensive weakness is stopping the run. I expect Liam Cohen to take full advantage of that vulnerability by going to Etienne, who registered the 11th-most rushing yards, early and often.
Maldonado's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Josh Allen ($16,500). Allen's production isn't game-script dependent. Even in slower, lower-scoring games, his rushing usage near the goal line and third-down involvement provide him with opportunities to score multiple times without requiring a high volume of passing plays or explosive gains.
Also in my lineup: James Cook III ($10,400) benefits from the Bills' preference for control, averaging over 5 yards per carry, staying involved in neutral game scripts and gaining value through sustained drives. His yardage and touchdown paths align with clock-draining possessions.
Moody's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Allen ($16,500) is tied to a Bills offense that finished the regular season ranked first in rushing attempts per game. However, the Jaguars' defensive front, which allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, could force Buffalo to lean more heavily on the passing game if the run is taken away. That scenario would bode well for Allen in this matchup, given his dual-threat ability and the game's high total.
Also in my lineup: Parker Washington ($5,000) has been superb over the past three games, posting at least 19 fantasy points and getting nine or more targets in each contest. The Bills' defense has leaned heavily on two-high safety looks this season, a coverage Washington has exploited. That trend should allow him to sustain solid volume.
Solak's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Brian Thomas Jr. ($11,400) is priced as the third Jacksonville receiver and fourth wide receiver overall, which is quite the fall from where we thought he'd be as a sophomore. But his new role in the Jaguars offense is that of vertical field-stretcher, and the Bills' fastest cornerback, Maxwell Hairston, is out for this game. Thomas has Jameson Williams-esque potential to flip the slate with an enormous catch-and-run touchdown and is a good CPT zag accordingly.
Also in my lineup: Gabe Davis ($2,800) is the Bills' preferred short-yardage target at wide receiver and, accordingly, has the best shot of snagging a touchdown and elevating his value over the rest of this bottom tier of flex options. If you're looking for a way to make salary work with a top-heavy build, Davis is your man.
Walder's recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Allen ($16,500). If the Bills are going to generate enough offense to hang in this game, I believe fervently that it's going to require some serious numbers from Allen on the ground. That production will be impossible to live without in a game like this.
Also in my lineup: Ray Davis ($2,400). I can't figure out who is going to win this game, and I suspect I'm not alone. When that happens, I sometimes think, is the spot to go contrarian and play for a blowout? I don't feel strongly which side the blowout would be, but if the Bills were to somehow win by 20, there probably would be some production in there for Davis. And I doubt he would be in many lineups.