Every week of the playoffs we lose more and more players from the DFS pool. That inherently makes it harder to differentiate ourselves from others in tournament lineups. If this is your first time playing daily fantasy at this stage of the game, check out Mike Clay's Draft Kings DFS cheat sheet. It's perfect for cash lineups (playing head-to-head or in a contest where the top half of entries share the prize pool equally) and finding nice high-floor plays. In those lineups, look for the safest and strongest possible plays of the week, high-floor options that also offer good value based on their price and matchup. There's no need to get cute.
If you're entering a tournament -- which can feature tens of thousands of participants -- you're trying to find the right punt play that hardly anyone else will have to go along with the rest of your high-floor lineup. Maybe you think Konata Mumpfield is going to smash this week -- he's unlikely to be rostered in many leagues because he's such a big dart throw -- but if you chose him and he hits, you've found a way to differentiate yourself from everyone else.
With that being said, I'm looking at using a little bit of correlation while also trying to hit on the big names that I think will produce this week. There's one, super-obvious smash play this week in Kenneth Walker III, given Zach Charbonnet's recent injury. Walker will be one of the chalkiest lineup decisions of the week. He'll factor into all of my lineups as we look at roster construction, but let's start where we usually do, with the QB position.
All values are for DraftKings' Classic main slate contests. For Showdown advice see our AFC and NFC betting guides
Quarterback
If you're looking to differentiate yourself, look no further than Jarrett Stidham. He's the cheapest QB on the slate by more than $1,000 and he projects to be the least rostered QB this week -- for obvious reasons. Even though that's an easy way to pivot within a lineup, I'm not sure I want to put all of my eggs in that basket. Stidham hasn't started a game since 2023, barely playing meaningful football over the last three years. So let's see what a Stidham lineup and a non-Stidham lineup might look like.
From the other available quarterbacks, I'm going to trust Drake Maye. Both Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold are in tough spots and what Maye has done with both his arm and his legs this year has been nothing short of impressive. Denver has a great defense that should put a lot of pressure on him, but at $6,000 I think we can expect 18-plus fantasy points and get a nice return on this investment.
Running Back
We've established that Walker is the best option on this slate given his expected workload. At $6,200, he's likely going to be in almost every lineup. The second RB spot is quite tricky. These remaining defenses are no slouches when it comes to stopping the run.
RJ Harvey didn't show much efficiency but he was utilized as a pass-catcher out of the backfield quite often last week, turning six targets into five catches and 46 yards. I'm expecting more of the same as this Broncos team may be dumping the ball off quite a bit against this Patriots pass rush. Rather than let Stidham drop back to throw the ball 30 yards downfield, I'd expect Sean Payton to set his QB up for easy, high-percentage throws where his pass-catchers can make something happen after the catch. At least that's what I would do, so I like Harvey as our secondary RB option this week.
I'm a little more weary about either Patriots or Rams running backs. It's a little more of a dart throw given their committee approach. There's always a chance one of these guys finds paydirt twice and finishes with 20 fantasy points because of it, but I'd rather feel more certain that the player I'm choosing will be first in line for touches out of the backfield. You can say that about Walker and Harvey, but not about Kyren Williams or Rhamondre Stevenson, which is why I'm passing on the committee backfields for my main lineups.
Wide Receiver
I'm trying to jam both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua into my starting lineup. They're the two superstars available this week and I'm going to work as hard as possible to come up with a lineup that will allow me to play them both. Puka comes in at $9,000 and JSN is $8,000, so you'll need to put in some work to figure out whom to pair with these two. The Rams-Seahawks game is expected to be the higher-scoring game on Sunday, so we'll see if the investment pays off. You can't get any better than Puka and JSN this week at WR.
So who else might be in play? For the Pats, I'd consider Stefon Diggs at $5,800 or Kayshon Boutte at $4,500, especially if I'm starting Maye, and especially in tournament games. But even in cash lineups where I'm looking at a QB-pass catcher stack, either of those Patriots receivers would work.
For my Stidham pairing, I'm likely throwing a dart at one of the Broncos lower-tier WRs that could pay off their price point with a single touchdown. Someone like Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Marvin Mims Jr.. That said, I'm doing everything I can to not really rely on a Broncos pass-catcher. I'm concerned about how Stidham may look that I'd rather not spend up for any of his pass catchers. Obviously, that's an easy way to differentiate yourself from the rest of the pack, but I'm not considering a Broncos WR that costs more $5,000 this week, so that rules out Courtland Sutton.
Tight End
Hunter Henry is the most expensive option on the slate at $4,800, but after spending up on expensive WRs I'm probably looking a little cheaper at TE. Colby Parkinson has been involved piece of this Rams offense and at $3,500 he's inexpensive enough to pay off with some nominal work. The Rams utilize three tight ends, but Parkinson's price point in relation to his involvement is what I'm after with this pick.
AJ Barner and Evan Engram are the other two starting options to consider. Even though Engram hasn't been used a ton this year, he could be leaned upon early and often thanks to the QB situation for Denver. He's very much a dart throw, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a 5-50 game out of Engram, which makes his $3,300 stomach-able this week as a differentiator.
Defense / Special Teams
Anyone that rostered the Seahawks last week knows how valuable choosing the right D/ST can be! This week, I'm wanting to follow the Patriots against Stidham, but they come in at $3,500. There's a decent chance that'll pay off with the expected amount of sacks, turnovers and limited scoring options for the Broncos, so I'm not writing them off, I'm just making this the final decision for my roster. If I have the money left over, I'm rolling with New England. If I don't, I'm probably dropping all the way down to the Broncos and playing them at $2,500. I still expect a nice game from this Denver defense and as the cheapest option on the table, there's not much to argue about.