Stress: Who needs it?
Fantasy football draft day is a fun time, one of the highlights of the entire season. And yet, year after year, so many fantasy managers sweat the small stuff, specifically which draft slot they will draw.
Whether that results from a desire to draft a very specific first-round target or hoping to avoid the embarrassment that comes with making the wrong first-round pick, we get how you feel. (As an aside, you don't have to worry about where you pick if you switch to a salary cap draft.)
That's where this column comes in. Each season, I walk you through the twists and turns of the first two rounds of your fantasy football draft, helping ease your stress and alleviate the worry of making mistakes. Here, I'll identify ideal picks from each slot in your draft order, the ramifications of positional combinations to begin your draft and potential consequences in future rounds (where applicable).
Remember: While you can't win your league in the opening rounds, you can certainly lose it. Let's try to make sure that doesn't happen.
This edition covers 12-team ESPN leagues with PPR scoring. You can also find the 10-team version here.
Below each draft slot, you'll find "optimal picks," which are my recommendation for the best selections to make from each position, and "unlocked" players, which represents the earliest slot from which you should consider the player, even if you're bullish on his 2026 prospects. The latter serves to prevent reaching for players in your draft.
Quick links to each draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
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Draft Slot 1 (Picks 1 and 24 overall)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Bijan Robinson
Round 2: Derrick Henry
Unlocked:
Round 1: Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase
Round 2: Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey
It's a two-player debate atop draft boards, between a pair of 2023 first-rounders who last season became only the 13th and 14th running backs ever to amass at least 1,200 rushing yards, 75 receptions and 10 touchdowns in a season. Gibbs is ranked and selected before Robinson in most places, but I'm an against-the-grain Robinson fan. Why? Simple: Robinson has been a little more consistent and a little more the centerpiece of his offense. You can disagree, and I'd hardly quibble, but this and the next pick are Robinson and Gibbs or Gibbs and Robinson.
As for Round 2 (and 3, because they're bookend picks), one of the top tight ends makes sense, and the team drafting first has perhaps the best opportunity for roster diversity, with a potential running back, wide receiver (Rashee Rice?) and tight end (Brock Bowers?) to start the draft.
Draft Slot 2 (Picks 2 and 23)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Jahmyr Gibbs
Round 2: Trey McBride
Unlocked:
Round 1: Puka Nacua
Round 2: Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins
Gibbs or Robinson. The one remaining is the one you take. Make the Ja'Marr Chase case if you wish, but he's not even a top-three wide receiver in terms of consistency over the past three seasons, largely because his quarterback, Joe Burrow, missed 31% of the Bengals' games in that time.
In the second round, teams picking from this slot can play an effective game of chicken with the one-slot manager, if they wish, letting top-two tight ends McBride and Brock Bowers go with the intent of selecting whoever remains in Round 3. Yes, it's possible that the one-slot team could take two tight ends and put one in the flex spot, but I have yet to see it happen across the dozens of mocks I've done. Among names to consider here, as well as in Round 3, are Derrick Henry, Rashee Rice, Garrett Wilson and Malik Nabers.
Draft Slot 3 (Picks 3 and 22)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Ja'Marr Chase
Round 2: Kenneth Walker III
Unlocked:
Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian McCaffrey
Round 2: None
The dream is for Robinson or Gibbs to make it to this pick, but in all likelihood Team 3 is breaking the seal on the four-man wide receiver Tier 1. Chase stands out here, as the wideout with the most fantasy points (979.32) and top-five weekly positional finishes (15) over the past three seasons. But it's close enough between him, Puka Nacua and Smith-Njigba that personal preference can drive the decision. Additionally, if you're among those who believe 2026 will be a "good" McCaffrey season, he enters the conversation once Robinson and Gibbs are gone.
In Round 2, Walker, if not Chase Brown (he'd bring the concern of having a running back and wide receiver from the same team) or Jeremiyah Love, gives this team an excellent base from which to work.
Draft Slot 4 (Picks 4 and 21)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Puka Nacua
Round 2: George Pickens
Unlocked:
Round 1: None
Round 2: Josh Jacobs
If not for the threat of suspension, Nacua would be the consensus No. 1 wide receiver and No. 3 overall pick in leagues with PPR scoring. However, because of that concern, he's part of the four-player wide receiver Tier 1, subject to your comfort level with prospective missed time. I regard this a Nacua vs. Smith-Njigba debate, where Nacua has a higher ceiling and better quarterback but Smith-Njigba's role results in more weekly consistency.
Though the top tight end, McBride, is "unlocked" at the Round 1/2 turn -- as you'll see below -- this No. 21 pick is the earliest point at which I'd give serious consideration to drafting him. McBride's VORP (value over replacement player) projects to be more than 100 fantasy points, but it might be wiser to wait until the next round in the hopes of nabbing Brock Bowers, the No. 1B tight end to McBride's 1A.
Draft Slot 5 (Picks 5 and 20)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Round 2: Jeremiyah Love
Unlocked:
Round 1: Jonathan Taylor
Round 2: None
Smith-Njigba scored 13 or more fantasy points on 16 occasions last season, matching Cooper Kupp (2021) for the most such games in NFL history. That's difficult to match, even for a player such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, the most logical alternative from this slot and a player who averaged 9.6 targets per game over the past three seasons.
On the way back, Love has been going sooner than this in most of ESPN Fantasy's mock drafts, where running backs go fast and furious across the first 15 picks. In most drafts, especially those on other sites where the rookie's ranking is a bit lower, he's likely to still be there at the 20th pick. If not, Walker is no reach, and a wide receiver such as Pickens (but preferably not A.J. Brown, who shares the same bye week as Smith-Njigba) or even the top tight end (Trey McBride) would be an acceptable pick.
Draft Slot 6 (Picks 6 and 19)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Round 2: Ashton Jeanty
Unlocked:
Round 1: None
Round 2: Chris Olave
Fantasy managers who see three consecutive wide receivers fly off the board sometimes instinctually zag to running back, and going with Taylor or McCaffrey over St. Brown from this slot is far from outrageous. St. Brown, however, is the only non-quarterback to score 300-plus fantasy points in each of the past three seasons. Bear in mind that if you take him, there's still a good chance that a quality running back such as Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love, Kenneth Walker or Derrick Henry will still be there come the 19th pick on the backswing.
Draft Slot 7 (Picks 7 and 18)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Jonathan Taylor
Round 2: A.J. Brown
Unlocked:
Round 1: James Cook III
Round 2: Josh Allen, Breece Hall
One of the few running backs with a legitimate chance at 300 rushing attempts and 15 touchdowns -- his per-game averages of 19.4 carries and 0.88 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons paced the position -- Taylor is worth the plunge despite what had been a checkered injury history from 2022 to 2024. He's a prime-age 27 and faces minimal competition for carries in the Indianapolis Colts' backfield.
Brown's fantasy prospects improved with his move to New England, where he should be a clear No. 1 target with production closer to his second than first half of 2025. He has one of the wider draft ranges among wide receivers but is a solid pick at 18th overall.
Draft Slot 8 (Picks 8 and 17)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Christian McCaffrey
Round 2: Chase Brown
Unlocked:
Round 1: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, De'Von Achane
Round 2: Tetairoa McMillan
I'm no McCaffrey believer, regardless of this pick and what my rankings say. He's 30 years old and has the 20th-most touches of any running back at that career point, and he has missed 37% of his team's games over the past six seasons. The previous two times he paced his position in fantasy points (2019 and 2023), he totaled seven games and 138.2 points in the follow-up. And yet, McCaffrey belongs here, because letting a player of his caliber, who just scored the 12th-most points by anyone in history, slide beyond this point represents potentially gift-wrapping a title to your competition. I'm not saying it'll feel good. I'm saying it's a necessary plunge.
The dream for this team is that a Drake London or Nico Collins makes it back this far into Round 2, as McCaffrey's managers will probably want stability at their other positions and stock up the bench with lottery-ticket type running backs (give some thought to Jordan James or Kaelon Black in the 12-teamers, depending upon how the San Francisco 49ers' backup running back battle plays out). Failing that, Brown provides good value.
Draft Slot 9 (Picks 9 and 16)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: James Cook III
Round 2: Nico Collins
Unlocked:
Round 1: None
Round 2: Garrett Wilson, Malik Nabers
Once McCaffrey and the Tier 1 wide receivers are off the board, anything goes. This is a draft slot from which any of the next five optimal picks would be considered legitimate. Cook gets my nod for two reasons: One, he has been a far more involved goal-line option than you might expect from a Buffalo Bills team that has the mobile Josh Allen under center, as Cook has 17 goal-line attempts to Allen's 20 over the past two years combined. Two, the pool of high-volume backs such as Cook dwindles quickly, and teams picking ninth have good odds of a Tier 2 wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Drake London and Collins) making it back to this slot.
If we assume Cook is the first pick, then London or Collins would be ideal on the backswing. One thing to be mindful of is that, if going running back/running back, Omarion Hampton has the same bye week as Cook (Week 7).
Draft Slot 10 (Picks 10 and 15)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: CeeDee Lamb
Round 2: Saquon Barkley
Unlocked:
Round 1: Drake London, Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jeanty
Round 2: None
The back end of most 10- and 12-team drafts will see players from wide receiver Tier 2 (Lamb, Justin Jefferson, London and Nico Collins) and running back Tier 3 (De'Von Achane, Hampton and Barkley, among seven in my rankings) shuffled about, and personal preference can certainly drive these picks. The risk for the team drafting 10th is that, in taking Lamb (or Jefferson), all three members of that running back tier could be gone by Round 2. Still, that would assure that London, at the very least, would make it back, while it wouldn't be much of a stretch to reach for Chase Brown or Jeanty if a running back is a must for you in the first two rounds.
Draft Slot 11 (Picks 11 and 14)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: Justin Jefferson
Round 2: Omarion Hampton
Unlocked:
Round 1: Hampton, Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Jeremiyah Love
Round 2: A.J. Brown, George Pickens, Rashee Rice
The first clear talent drop-off happens after Pick 11, when the first two of the Tier 2 wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson) go. It's not a cavernous drop, but here's the first place where I'm drawing a line to insist that the top 11 players projected as optimal picks need to all go no later than this slot. Yes, that means this is the absolute latest point you should let McCaffrey slide.
On the backswing, Hampton is an excellent choice, and one that diversifies your positions. That's not to say that you should pass on Drake London, if available, even if going wide receiver/wide receiver from the 11-slot probably means going close to, or full, zero-RB approach. But Jefferson and Hampton is a great start if picking this late in the order.
Draft Slot 12 (Picks 12 and 13)
Optimal picks:
Round 1: De'Von Achane
Round 2: Drake London
Unlocked (either pick): Trey McBride, Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, Kenneth Walker III, Derrick Henry
Should a team at the 11/12 turn go running back/running back to start the draft? It's all about your preference from among the likely picks at the Round 3/4 turn. Consider that the wide receivers typically available at the 36th and 37th picks include Emeka Egbuka, Ladd McConkey and Terry McLaurin, solid-albeit-not-spectacular options who typically close out the position's top 20. The running backs usually available then are Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne Jr. and Cam Skattebo, perfectly fine choices that have me preferring the wide receiver at 13th overall.
Bear in mind that going running back/running back to start means greater difficulty selecting a top quarterback or springing for tight end Colston Loveland, if available, at the Round 3/4 turn. Ideally, I'd prefer to have two wide receivers ahead of two running backs by the time my first four picks from the 12-slot have passed.