After their 3-1 loss to the Netherlands on Saturday evening, India's hopes at the FIH Men's Hockey World Cup 2026 are hanging by a thread. They were thrown a lifeline later that evening, as Argentina beat England 3-1, to keep India's chances alive.
India's fate is not entirely in their own hands anymore. They need a massive favour from the Dutch in their last group game against England, while also needing to beat Argentina by at least two goals on Monday.
Here's exactly what India need to do and how the other result must fall in their favour for Craig Fulton's team to make the semifinal:
As it stands
What India need to do
First, India will have to beat Argentina by at least a two goal margin. If that happens, that will eliminate the Argentines, because India would go ahead of them on goals scored if it's a two-goal win, and on goal difference if the victory margin is greater than two.
Remember, Argentina had beaten India 8-0 and 4-2 in the two FIH Pro League games this year. So beating them, in itself, isn't going to be straightforward, let alone having to have a victory margin of two or more goals.
What else needs to go India's way?
A Dutch win, of course. But a big Dutch win. India need at least a four-goal swing between themselves and England in that last game for them to qualify for the semifinals.
But here's where it gets a little complicated. Say India win 3-1 against Argentina, that would mean they have six goals scored and eight goals conceded. In that case, if England lose 2-0, then they would have five goals scored and seven conceded. India would go through on goals scored.
However, if India win 3-1 and England lose 3-1, then England would have six goals scored and eight goals conceded, the same as India. In that case, qualification for the semifinals would come down to the number of field goals scored.
As it stands, India have one field goal in this group - Dilpreet Singh's goal against England. England have three field goals, all scored against India.
The easiest way to put this for India is that they need to beat Argentina by two goals and hope that the Netherlands beat England by three goals. That avoids any mathematical complications, as England would be behind India on goal difference, and Argentina behind India on goals scored.
The complications regarding goals scored and field goals scored between India and England arises in certain scenarios where India lose by two and England lose by two. In that case, India will have to ensure that they score three goals more than England manage in their game against the Dutch.
Lastly, England play the Netherlands at 10:30 p.m. IST, after India face Argentina at 6:30 p.m. IST on Monday, so they have the advantage of knowing exactly what they'll need to do to qualify, even if India do the business to knock Argentina out.