As we head into the final quarter, let's take stock of a season that in many ways has gone as expected: The National League is largely split into the haves and the have-nots, the AL East race is tightly fought among multiple teams, and the AL wild card has many contenders.
Which teams have been the biggest surprises and disappointments? One way to look at this is to compare each team's current record with its preseason projected record. I took each team's win-loss mark entering Sunday, projected that over 162 games and compared that win total with the average preseason projection from ZiPS, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
Five biggest overachievers:
Texas Rangers: +14
Baltimore Orioles: +11
Chicago Cubs: +10
Washington Nationals: +9
Philadelphia Phillies: +9
Five biggest underachievers:
Tampa Bay Rays: -14
Minnesota Twins: -13
Los Angeles Angels: -13
Arizona Diamondbacks: -12
Atlanta Braves: -12
By this accounting, the New York Mets are not the most disappointing team as many would suggest, as their preseason projections pegged them for 89 wins and they're on pace for 80. On the other hand, the Mets were favorites to win the NL East, or at least win a wild card, and even the latter now appears unlikely. Most ESPN voters picked the Mets to make the playoffs; at FanGraphs, 47 of 55 staff members picked them to make the playoffs.
The Houston Astros are on pace for 83 wins, just three below their projected win total of 86. They currently, however, will be watching the playoffs on television, which means all 55 FanGraphs voters will be wrong.
The Rangers have exceeded expectations thanks to a remarkable 27-8 record in one-run games. The Orioles have overachieved, at least in comparison to the projection systems, but as Orioles fans will happily point out, the projection systems seem to always underrate their team. Some fans will view this as an indictment of the projection systems. See, they're wrong again. There's also a margin of error, however, so it's really just proof that -- thankfully -- baseball still remains unpredictable.
Anyway, I wanted to look at some of the major offseason moves of a few teams and reflect on how they've affected the current standings.