How bad can an MLB player hit in 2026 and stay in the lineup?

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Patrick Bailey hits his 1st HR with the Guardians (0:38)

With the MLB batting average sitting at .239, the lowest since 1968, and home runs falling to their lowest per-game rate since 2015, managers across baseball are facing this question: How bad can an excellent defensive player hit and remain in the lineup?

Consider Patrick Bailey, who is widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in baseball and is a two-time Gold Glove winner in 2024 and 2025, and is a pitch-framing master. His San Francisco Giants had a big problem in early May, as they weren't scoring runs and Bailey was hitting .146 with one home run in 30 games.

Needing to improve the offense, and with two rookie catchers ready for more playing time, the Giants traded Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians on May 9.

"I think it's more the confidence that we have in Jesus Rodriguez and Daniel Susac, and just the strides that we feel like as an organization they've made defensively," Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey told reporters after the trade. "Just as a whole, we're trying to find ways to get more runs on the board."

Though the Giants had an in-house solution at catcher, and the Guardians were willing to trade for Bailey given the offensive struggles of their own primary catcher, Bo Naylor, the trade illustrates how San Francisco decided Bailey's lack of offense was no longer tolerable, no matter how valuable his defense.

He is hardly the only elite defensive player struggling big-time at the plate in 2026:

Bailey, C, Guardians (.140/.207/.206, 20 OPS+): With Naylor hitting just .143 with a .200 OBP at the time of the trade, after hitting just .195 as the regular Cleveland catcher in 2025, the Guardians figured if they weren't going to get much offense from their catcher, they might as well go all-in with Bailey's pitch-framing skills.

Denzel Clarke, CF, Athletics (.170/.228/.189, 16 OPS+): Clarke, of the highlight-of-the-year catches in center field last season, has been on the injured list since late April, but he was off to a slow start after hitting .230/.274/.372 in 159 plate appearances as a rookie in 2025.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Cincinnati Reds (.142/.195/.225, 17 OPS+): Hayes landed on the IL late last week because of a back problem, but the two-time Gold Glove winner at third base was struggling to generate any offense, well below even his .573 OPS in 2024 and .595 in 2025.

Joey Ortiz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (.195/.290/.239, 52 OPS+): Ortiz had the lowest OPS of any qualified hitter last season, two points worse than Hayes', but has been even worse in 2026. His defense at shortstop, though? He ranks in the 98th percentile in Statcast's outs above average metric.

Victor Scott II, CF, St. Louis Cardinals (.197/.257/.265, 52 OPS+): Scott ranked fourth among center fielders in Statcast's defensive value last season despite having fewer than 500 plate appearances, and he ranks high again this season. But his OPS is nearly 100 points lower.

Marcus Semien, 2B, New York Mets (.216/.264/.312, 65 OPS+): Semien has finished third in MVP voting three times and won his second Gold Glove at second base last season while with the Texas Rangers, but at age 35, his offensive production continues to slide.

Taylor Walls, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (.202/.303/.282, 67 OPS+): One of the best defenders on a per-inning basis in recent years, Walls has been the regular shortstop this season despite a .585 OPS that mirrors his career mark of .584.

An elite defensive catcher like Bailey is usually given more latitude, but there is a line where even Gold Glovers will eventually find themselves on the bench if they don't start hitting. But where is the line? How long can these guys remain in the lineup?

To answer that question and further study this issue, we went back to 1962, when the National League and American League had both expanded to 10-team leagues. We'll get to the data in a moment, but the bottom line: Bad hitters are not remaining in the lineup as regularly as they once were.


The historical trends

The all-time good-fielding/bad-hitting player is catcher Bill Bergen, who lasted 11 years in the major leagues from 1901 to 1911 despite a .170 career average and .194 on-base percentage. Though the visuals of his defensive brilliance have been lost with the memories of the long-since deceased, a 1908 photo caption reads that he was "without a peer in judging and capturing foul flies."

Since the expansion era began in 1962, the honor for the worst-hitting player who forged a career of at least 3,000 plate appearances belongs to catcher Jeff Mathis, who played 17 seasons in the big leagues, posting a .194/.252/.299 batting line for a lifetime OPS+ of 48.

The next 10 worst hitters on the post-1962 list are all middle infielders. Hal Lanier somehow lasted 10 years in the majors despite not hitting for average (.228), having no power (eight career home runs), not walking (.255 on-base percentage) and having little speed (11 career stolen bases). His career OPS+ was 50, so despite his fielding prowess, his hitting was so feeble that Baseball-Reference credits him with minus-0.9 career WAR.

Lanier was standard fare for the 1960s, '70s and '80s, when power-hitting middle infielders were rare. Not many players remained a starter as long as he did though: Only 30 players since 1962 have batted 3,000 times with a career OPS+ under 70 (meaning 30% worse than an average hitter). The most recent of those was speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton, who last played in the majors in 2023 and finished with a career OPS+ of 66.

The career totals are interesting, but let's focus on what happens within a single season. The data since 1962 for players batting at least 500 times in a season (essentially a full-time player):

• OPS+ below 80: 678 individual seasons (11.1 per season, not including the shortened seasons of 1981, 1994 and 2020)

• OPS+ below 70: 255 individual seasons (4.2 per season)

• OPS+ below 60: 69 individual seasons (1.1 per season)

Hayes and Ortiz both managed to remain in the lineup last season despite finishing with an OPS+ of 65 -- the only 2025 regulars with an OPS+ below 70. Only three other regulars were below 80 (Brenton Doyle, Luis Rengifo and Matt McLain).

The last player to bat 500 times with an OPS+ below 60 was Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who hit .195/.285/.262 as a rookie in 2022, for an OPS+ of 57. Manager Torey Lovullo stuck with him, and Perdomo went on to post a 139 OPS+ last year and finished fourth in the MVP voting. Only three players in the past decade have been this bad and batted that many times: Perdomo, Kevin Newman for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021 and Chris Davis in 2018, when the Baltimore Orioles kept the highly paid first baseman in the lineup despite a .168 batting average.

If we lower the standard to 400 plate appearances, the volume increases. Again, overall totals since 1962 (with the same parameters):

• OPS+ below 80: 1,370 (22.5 per season)

• OPS+ below 70: 578 (9.5 per season)

• OPS+ below 60: 196 (3.2 per season)

Shortstop Nick Allen hit .221/.284/.251 for the Atlanta Braves last season in 416 plate appearances, an OPS+ of 54. Not surprisingly, his defense wasn't enough to keep him in the lineup in 2026 and now he's a bench player for the Houston Astros. Doyle pops up in the sub-60 OPS+ category here with an OPS+ of 53 for the Colorado Rockies in 2023. Nicky Lopez cracked the sub-60 OPS+ mark twice with the Kansas City Royals, in 2019 and 2021. In the sub-70 OPS+ group in 2025, Nolan Jones joined Allen, Hayes and Ortiz. Sixteen players in 2025 batted at least 400 times with an OPS+ under 80 -- including Bailey and Scott and, shockingly, first baseman Carlos Santana.

As you can see, staying in the lineup with an OPS+ under 80 -- 20% worse than the average hitter -- is exceedingly rare these days, fewer than one player per team last season.

Let's show how this has changed over the decades. Since the number of teams has changed, we'll use the percentage of players among all available starting slots who fall below each threshold (below 80 OPS+, below 70, below 60). For example, in 2025 there were 270 possible starting slots -- nine per team (including DH) times 30 teams. We're not including the shortened seasons of 1981, 1994 and 2020.

In the 1970s, for example, 12.4% of all available starting positions featured a player who batted at least 400 times with an OPS+ under 80. But in this decade, the total is down to 5.5%. This is not good news for our seven players mentioned above.

Why have the percentages gone down?

The simplest answer is the supply of replacement-level talent has increased. If the first guy isn't doing the job, teams move on much faster to the next player in the organization and give him an opportunity. The other answer is also simple: Modern player evaluation makes front offices smarter.

Take our man Hal Lanier. He was a regular with the Giants for seven seasons from 1964 to 1970, an era when they were loaded with Hall of Famers -- Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Orlando Cepeda. In those seasons, they lost pennants or division races by three games, two games, 1½ games, 10½ games (although in second place), nine games (second place again), three games and 16 games -- all the while receiving minimal offensive contributions from Lanier (and often his double-play mate at either shortstop or second base as well).

General manager Chub Feeney was at the helm the entire time, unwilling or unable to find an upgrade (and perhaps overrating the value of Lanier's defense). Front offices now are more proactive: A general manager in 2026 will attempt to find a solution rather than stick with a light-hitting regular.


What it means for 2026

What does all this mean for our seven players listed above? They all possess an OPS+ below 70, which suggests their playing time is in jeopardy. Let's look at each situation.

Bailey: The Guardians gave up the No. 29 pick in the draft and pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson to acquire Bailey, which suggests a long-term commitment to him. What's interesting is that catcher Cooper Ingle is hitting .337/.504/.618 in Triple-A, with more walks than strikeouts. But his defense is fringy, so while the bat looks ready for the majors, maybe he's more of a backup catcher/DH.

Clarke: He originally hit the IL because of a bone bruise in his foot but then injured his hamstring while rehabbing in Triple-A and is now expected to be out until the All-Star break. In his absence, the A's tried infielder Zack Gelof in center, right fielder Lawrence Butler and now Henry Bolte. With his speed, Bolte is the best defensive option and if he hits -- he had an OPS over 1.000 at Triple-A Las Vegas -- then it's possible he keeps the job. Or, with Butler also struggling (.163/.258/.248), maybe the A's go with defense and play Clarke in center and Bolte in right.

Hayes: This is a little tricky since Hayes is signed through 2029 and the Reds don't want to punt on his contract. But he's not making that much money at $7 million in 2026 and 2027 and then $8 million and 2028 and 2029 -- and he simply hasn't hit for a long time now. The Reds, desperate for offense, might have no choice but to move on here. With Hayes injured, Sal Stewart has moved from first base to third base, Nathaniel Lowe (who leads the Reds with a .908 OPS) is playing first and Eugenio Suarez, just back off the IL, is the DH. It's hard to see Hayes getting back in the lineup, at least this season.

Ortiz: His job looks safe for now. The Brewers aren't getting any offense at third base either with Rengifo, plus backup infielder David Hamilton isn't much of an offensive threat. Long term, Jesus Made -- the top prospect in the game -- will take over at third base (maybe even in the second half of 2026) and the Brewers signed shortstop prospect Cooper Pratt to an eight-year, $50.75 million contract in spring training. Pratt is hitting just .229/.351/.382 at Triple-A, so it seems unlikely he replaces Ortiz this season.

Scott: The Cardinals have a league-average offense, but for now, they're content to run with Scott in center field, especially after Nathan Church landed on the IL last Thursday because of a shoulder strain that will keep him sidelined indefinitely. Church looked OK in center in the eight games he started, but he's not necessarily a long-term solution. It makes sense to give Scott one more season as a regular and see if he improves enough at the plate to stick as a starter.

Semien: He has had slow starts before, but this is a bigger concern at age 35. If the Mets were healthy, they could play some combination of Bo Bichette and Brett Baty at second and third, but with Francisco Lindor out, Semien remains a starter (heck, he even hit cleanup the other day, which tells you how bad the Mets are right now). Given that Semien will make $26 million in 2027 and $20 million in 2028, the Mets need him to start hitting or they'll be flushing a lot of money into Flushing Bay.

Walls: Why fix it if it ain't broke? The Rays have the best record in the AL, and considering the rest of the infield is a bit of defensive sieve, Walls' glovework is vital. The Rays might add an offensive upgrade at some point, but that's more likely to be in the outfield or second base.