The 2026 MLB draft starts Saturday (1 p.m. ET), so it's time for my final projections on the first two rounds.
The intrigue begins with the No. 1 pick this year. The Chicago White Sox are still debating among the three players in a clear tier at the top of this draft class: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey.
Though those three are likely to be selected with the first three picks -- in some order -- after that, it's anyone's guess in a wide-open first round.
Who will the White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins land with the first three picks? And which players will be next off the board?
This is my final mock draft of the 2026 draft cycle, with updates based on my latest draft-day intel coming here Saturday. And remember, this is the order in which I think players will be selected, while my final draft rankings are the order in which I'd pick the players.
1. Chicago White Sox
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Rank: 1
This one still isn't finished, and I don't feel great about it.
My current read is that, as people believed early in the spring, Cholowsky and Grady Emerson are running close at the top, with Lackey closing in. But Lackey's late start playing competitive baseball and his positional challenge of being a catcher will keep him just behind the first two. I think the tiebreaker has and will continue to be proximity/risk that leans to Cholowsky over Emerson.
I don't get the impression that bonus prices have been discussed as of Thursday for any of these top picks, so that's why this isn't settled and likely won't be until a few hours before the draft, if that.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Texas)
Rank: 2
The Rays are very interested in Lackey, as has been widely rumored. I think they still prefer Emerson, and I don't think the asking prices of these two will be wildly different, so it will likely just come down to the Rays' preference. It wouldn't be shocking if Lackey were ahead of Cholowsky, in the event Emerson goes first.
3. Minnesota Twins
Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Rank: 3
Easy for me to say that this is the most straightforward pick in the draft, but it appears that the Twins will select the one who's left of these three top-tier players.
Minnesota hasn't been tipping its hand much, and there has been some chatter of a steep cut here on a college player, but there have been multiple players mentioned. This follows the trends in recent years of misinformation underlying the rumors days before the draft, mostly because the drop-off in talent doesn't support the draft pool savings.
4. San Francisco Giants
Eric Booth Jr., CF, Oak Grove HS (Miss.)
Rank: 5
Three prominent names have been rumored here of late: Booth, Jacob Lombard and Jackson Flora. But that happens only if the Giants can't get their wish, which is Cholowsky or Emerson dropping because Tampa Bay or Minnesota blinks (I don't think they will).
The buzz is that San Francisco has Booth above Lombard, according to about 80% of the people I've spoken with, and the Giants are leaning toward the upside of a high school hitter at this pick over the potential quick-mover in Flora.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Rank: 7
This one could be a curveball. The belief all spring is that the Pirates seek a quicker-moving college player if they don't get the high school hitter they want, with Jackson Flora assumed to be the college player, and I think Booth is the high school player.
So, with Flora on the board, why not take him? According to the late info I'm getting, the Pirates would like a college position player here as they're somewhat flush with young pitching. Burress likely goes No. 7 if he doesn't get selected here, so this isn't the reach that some might think it is, and I think this would be for some savings.
6. Kansas City Royals
Jared Grindlinger, RF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (Calif.)
Rank: 11
Here's a surprise at a spot where people have been saying for a month that something unexpected might happen. I think this pick comes down to Grindlinger, Flora and underslot pitching options such as Gio Rojas, Hunter Dietz and Mason Edwards. The choice from that group would depend on the bonus price and who can then be targeted at later picks.
As much as it sounds as though the teams with the No. 4 and No. 5 picks prefer Booth to Lombard, I think that might be the case for much of the top 10. It's unclear where Lombard will be picked within the top dozen picks because of how models are responding to his swing-and-miss issues over the summer.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 4
Having Lombard and Flora available at this pick is unexpected, and both would be nice fits. The Orioles don't often select pitchers at high picks, but I think they would in this situation. This is the floor for Burress and a ceiling for Justin Lebron.
8. Athletics
Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
Rank: 13
This connection has been pretty strong for the past few weeks. Hacopian goes 10 through 16 if he doesn't go here. Most teams believe this run from eight to 10 will all be college hitters, and then a few more picks right after that, as well. There has also been some mention of Zion Rose and Hunter Dietz.
9. Atlanta Braves
Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
Rank: 9
I think the Braves want Burress, and it's now looking as if he won't get here, but this would be his floor if he did. Otherwise, I'm hearing Bell and Derek Curiel as the main targets. Hacopian and Lebron could be a fit here, but Lombard's swing-and-miss means he likely isn't a fit.
10. Colorado Rockies
Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Fla.)
Rank: 6
This would be great for the first pick of Colorado's new regime if the Rockies could get my No. 6-ranked prospect at the 10th pick with legitimate star potential. It would also be a task for the development group to prove themselves, too.
For the most part, college hitters have been mentioned here, with Curiel likely the pick if Lombard doesn't slide this far. This is also the first spot where Golden Spikes winner Daniel Jackson has been mentioned, and it could also be a fit for Lebron.
11. Washington Nationals
Derek Curiel, CF, LSU
Rank: 10
The Nationals have been linked to Grindlinger all spring, but he isn't here in this scenario. Lebron, Curiel and Helfrick could all fit in what is likely to be a hitter-heavy mix, with maybe one pitcher being heavily considered.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Rank: 8
With a new interim head of baseball operations in John Mozeliak, who is mostly hands-off with the draft, the belief is that the scouts will get to make this pick.
That doesn't mean all prep upside because that's not really what the board is giving them, but I could see the Angels selecting a college hitter with less polish and more upside, such as Lebron, who is a nice value here. Trevor Condon is one of the prep prospects under consideration, with a mostly college-heavy mix.
13. St. Louis Cardinals
Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
Rank: 14
The first dozen or so players in this projection likely don't get far outside of where I have them, maybe one more if you include Helfrick, but we're around the part of the draft where the talent level isn't as high.
The Cardinals will be looking for a position player and trying not to step down a tier in talent for savings at this pick. Helfrick and Condon make sense, and if the right hitters don't get here, Hunter Dietz and Taylor Rabe have been mentioned.
14. Miami Marlins
Trevor Condon, CF, Etowah HS (Ga.)
Rank: 16
The Marlins are also looking for a position player here, and ideally, it's Curiel, but I don't think he'll make it this far. This is maybe the highest real spot for Condon, but he has a smaller range. He's not likely to get past No. 22 despite his height.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think right around here is where the next group of college pitchers will start being drafted and could be the majority of the next dozen picks or so. It feels as though Dietz and Liam Peterson might have slid just ahead of Cameron Flukey in that pecking order, with prep lefty Gio Rojas also in that mix.
The D-backs like to take lefty-hitting prep infielders, but with Condon gone, either Tyler Spangler (who seems to have only three to four teams in position to take him) or Eric Becker, who played at Virginia, fit their normal type.
16. Texas Rangers
Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Rank: 12
I've heard mostly college pitchers linked to this pick, and Peterson is a nice fit with potential No. 2/No. 3 starter-level stuff if he can shape up his fastball command a bit. Dietz, Flukey and Edwards are in the mix here.
17. Houston Astros
Daniel Jackson, C, Georgia
Rank: 20
This is probably the first real landing spot for Jackson, and he's most likely to go somewhere in the 20s, but probably won't make it to the Astros' next pick at 28.
It sounds as though the Astros want a position player here, and Jackson offers more defensive value than Bo Lowrance and Ace Reese, along with more raw power than Zion Rose and AJ Gracia.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (Fla.)
Rank: 21
The Reds don't mind taking prep pitchers with some upside and risk, and Rojas is a nice value here; he wouldn't last long in the 20s if he got there.
I've also heard the batch of college pitchers in this range is linked here (Edwards, Peterson, Dietz, Flukey), and this is a landing spot for Condon if he's still on the board.
19. Cleveland Guardians
Mason Edwards, LHP, USC
Rank: 22
This pick has a good chance to be another college pitcher, with Edwards, Townsend and Flukey still on the board.
This is also where some of the players who are expected to go in the 30s or even 40s also have interest in a savings pick. Cleveland is one of the teams linked to prep infielder Trey Ebel, and it wouldn't shock me if prep shortstop Rocco Maniscalco was a target here or overslot at its next pick.
20. Boston Red Sox
Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
Rank: 17
Grindlinger was linked to this pick for much of the spring until his stock rose enough that he looks unlikely to still be here. The Red Sox have been shopping for underslot college players here if they don't like who's available. Reese belongs in this area and likely goes by Pick 25 if he makes it that far.
Keep an eye on TCU outfielder Chase Brunson as one of the potential savings options. This is rumored to be one of the handful of landing spots for prep shortstop Tyler Spangler.
21. San Diego Padres
Zion Rose, CF, Louisville
Rank: 18
It's really hard to predict that San Diego will select a college player, but the typical Padres fare isn't on the board at this pick. Rose has a high school player level of projection/upside because he looks like he could create power but hasn't done it yet in college and also could play center field, but hasn't done that much, either.
Rose has interest as high as No. 8 and should go comfortably inside the top 30, with the Padres one of his best fits. They've been linked to a number of players at this pick, possibly as underslot options, including Ben Blair, Taj Marchand, Cole Prosek, Lebron, Bo Lowrance, and Logan Schmidt. Keep an eye on Coleton Brady as an overpay at a later pick.
22. Detroit Tigers
AJ Gracia, CF, Virginia
Rank: 24
Gracia's shoulder bothered him this season, so teams are trying to figure out how much better he could become. He is an advanced hitter who might be a center fielder, and he has a feel for pull/lift in games, so adding more power when healthy could be the key to unlocking his potential. Due to those ifs, his projection is varied, but he likely fits in picks 20 to 30.
The Tigers like left-handed hitters, ideally a high school shortstop, but the possible options who fit that are a bit of a stretch. If they want a prep infielder, Marchand could be the fit here, at a discount. Notre Dame RHP Jack Radel is also rumored to be in the mix.
23. Chicago Cubs
Logan Hughes, LF, Texas Tech
Rank: 29
The Cubs have been linked to some of the potentially underslot college outfielders, akin to what they did last year in taking Ethan Conrad to help set up some later high school picks, such as breakout prospect OF Josiah Hartshorn. I think this would be the floor for some of the college pitchers who are off the board in this scenario.
24. Seattle Mariners
Ben Blair, RHP, Liberty
Rank: 42
I've heard Dietz, Blair, Flukey, and Cade Townsend linked here, and each has traits that would appeal to the Mariners' pitching development people.
I don't think Dietz will get here, but Blair has some similarities with the lower-release point righties in the system, such as Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller. This would probably be a slight discount as Blair's range is more from the late 20s into the 30s.
25. Milwaukee Brewers
Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 19
Flukey is the one college pitcher who slides a bit in this scenario due to a rocky spring during which he missed much of the season because of a strained rib. His arm action isn't the cleanest, and his breaking stuff grades a bit below average at the moment, so a strong development team such as Milwaukee could be the best fit for Flukey's traits, which aren't as popular as they would've been a decade ago.
Ace Reese is often tied here (picked earlier in this scenario) for his similarities to Brewers prospect Andrew Fischer. Trey Ebel might be a surprise pick here, like his brother Brady was last year. This could also be a landing spot for Eric Becker or Logan Reddemann.
26. Atlanta Braves
Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS (S.C.)
Rank: 41
The Braves are linked to a number of prep lefties all over the draft, including Rojas and Schmidt, but Bolemon belongs in this range and might fit the Braves' tendencies the best of the group. I could also see Atlanta being opportunistic with any college pitchers dropping in the draft, so Bolemon vs. Townsend and Reddemann in this scenario could be a close call.
27. New York Mets
Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi
Rank: 26
Townsend slips a bit, but is likely to be selected by 30 or 35. He could move quickly, with three crisp breaking pitches and a mid-90s heater, but there are some questions about his frame and how many innings he could rack up. Other players linked here include Aiden Robbins, Will Brick, Reddemann, and Bolemon.
28. Houston Astros
Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS (S.C.)
Rank: 35
Lowrance likely finds a landing spot somewhere from 25 to 40, with many scouts seeing above-average hit and power tools from a pretty left-handed swing, but his position on the field is unclear. The Astros are linked to Blair and Radel here, and this is probably the floor for Jackson.
29. San Francisco Giants
Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
Rank: 34
This has been rumored for weeks to be the landing spot for Spangler, a local kid who barely played this spring due to injury, but showed well on the field at the draft combine. It also makes sense that if the Giants can't get Cholowsky or Emerson, they will follow the gamble of selecting Booth by taking a chance on a prep shortstop, shooting for upside, which has been rumored to be the Giants' approach all spring. Bolemon has also been mentioned a lot here and Robbins has been mentioned a bit.
30. Kansas City Royals
Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA
Rank: 27
Reddemann never got to pitch in the regional before UCLA got eliminated, so he threw a bullpen in the draft combine. He was cleared medically after suffering arm fatigue in April, and now he's competing in a jumbled group of college pitchers who will be drafted from 15 to 40. Bolemon, Jensen Hirschkorn, and a lot of high school pitchers have been linked to this pick.
31. Arizona Diamondbacks
Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
Rank: 23
This is around Becker's floor, and this is a nice fit for the D-backs to get a potential every-day, left-handed-hitting third baseman. Brunson has also been linked here as have several lefty-hitting high school players, such as Maniscalco, Spangler, Prosek and James Clark.
32. St. Louis Cardinals
Taj Marchand, SS, James Island Charter HS (S.C.)
Rank: 45
I think the Cardinals will be going heavy for position players this year, and Marchand has a good shot to land at this pick or the next one to Tampa Bay after his impressive showing at the draft combine. Gracia or Becker could also get scooped up here if they fall.
33. Tampa Bay Rays
Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
Rank: 28
Carlon has some relief risk and had an injury scare after suffering a sore arm late in the season, so he slides a bit into the 30s. But he was seen as a potential mid-first-round pick in the spring. Marchand also fits here, and Sean Dunlap is a potential surprise here, too.
34. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
Rank: 32
Kuhns likely goes in the 30s, and one evaluator said Kuhns reminds him of George Kirby; that's the ceiling if the development team can optimize Kuhns and get a little lucky. Coleman Borthwick also gets mentioned here, but he's also a big threat not to sign and head to Auburn. Hirschkorn also fits the kind of prep pitcher the Pirates usually draft, but his price is also a factor. Cincinnati catcher Jack Natili has also been mentioned.
This pick has been heavily rumored to be offered in trades for about a month. I've had at least half a dozen teams tell me they made a run at this pick; the asking price seems to be a good MLB reliever. Teams expect the pick to be traded before the draft, but the clock is ticking.
35. New York Yankees
Cole Prosek, 3B/C, Magnolia Heights HS (Miss.)
Rank: 30
I've heard people say this is a floor for Prosek, who is a lefty hitter with a solid hit/power combo and also might be able to catch, but otherwise, he fits well at third base. Brick has been mentioned here, and this would likely be a floor for Jackson if he slid.
There's a rumor that the Yankees want Canadian prep lefty Sean Duncan at this pick for a discount because he has other suitors just behind this selection; I have him going to the Yankees in the second round.
36. Philadelphia Phillies
Archer Horn, SS, St. Ignatius Prep HS (Calif.)
Rank: 40
It sounds as if Horn has three or four teams that have him valued among the top-25 players in the draft, while others think he's unsignable for how they have him evaluated. I don't have that full list of interested teams, but rivals think that the Phillies are on the list. Marchand also fits here if he makes it this far, and Jason Amalbert is a target for a later pick.
37. Colorado Rockies
Jack Radel, RHP, Notre Dame
Rank: 33
Radel is a favorite of mine, and it sounds like teams have joined me, as this might be his floor. Industry chatter has the Rockies focusing on hitting with their first pick and pitching with these two picks. Reddemann is another college pitcher who has been mentioned for the Rockies, and this is probably his floor.
38. Colorado Rockies
Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS (Calif.)
Rank: 56
The Rockies' top scouts were seen a lot with the top prep lefties in the class; I was standing next to them while watching Bo Holloway, but he sounds unsignable. Bolemon was rumored here for much of the spring before his stock got too high. Schmidt has teams interested in the 30s and 40s, and this might be his most likely landing spot.
39. Toronto Blue Jays
Will Brick, C, Christian Brothers HS (Tenn.)
Rank: 39
The Jays can't know what players will be on the board for their pick, but Brick has been mentioned here for a few weeks and likely goes in the late 20s or 30s. Brunson and Radel also come up here; the Jays seem open to the best value rather than locking into one sort of player.
40. Los Angeles Dodgers
Taylor Rabe, RHP, Mississippi
Rank: 48
Brick is also mentioned here, but Rabe is a great value, as he's getting nibbles in the teens and early 20s after his strong finish to the season. This would be a floor for Prosek if he slides and for Edwards if he slides a lot; I'm hearing almost entirely college players for slot at this pick.
41. Chicago White Sox - Dominic Santarelli, LF, St. Joseph Catholic HS (Wisc.)
42. Washington Nationals - Chase Brunson, CF, TCU
43. Minnesota Twins - Rocco Maniscalco, SS, Oxford HS (Ala.)
44. Pittsburgh Pirates - Ty Head, CF, North Carolina St.
45. Los Angeles Angels - Aiden Ruiz, SS, Stony Brook HS (N.Y.)
46. Baltimore Orioles - Sawyer Strosnider, RF, TCU
47. Athletics - Andrew Williamson, RF, UCF
48. Atlanta Braves - Trey Ebel, SS, Corona HS (Calif.)
49. Tampa Bay Rays - Blake Bryant, RHP, Citizens Christian HS (Ga.)
50. St. Louis Cardinals - Owen Hull, CF, North Carolina
51. Pittsburgh Pirates - Kaiden McCarthy, RHP, Vermont Academy HS (Vt.)
52. Miami Marlins - Jake Schaffner, SS, North Carolina
53. Arizona Diamondbacks - Connor Comeau, 3B, Anderson HS (Texas)
54. Texas Rangers - Aiden Robbins, CF, Texas
55. San Francisco Giants - Caden Sorrell, CF, Texas A&M
56. Kansas City Royals - Jack Slightom, RHP, Lyons Township HS (Ill.)
57. Houston Astros - Carson Tinney, C, Texas
58. Cincinnati Reds - Gavin Grahovac, 1B, Texas A&M
59. Cleveland Guardians - Joey Volchko, RHP, Georgia
60. San Diego Padres - Elliot Lascelles, SS, Upper Canada HS (Canada)
61. Detroit Tigers -Ethan Wachsmann, RHP, Grandview HS (Colo.)
62. Chicago Cubs - Jack Natili, C, Cincinnati
63. New York Yankees - Sean Duncan, LHP, Terry Fox HS (Canada)
64. Philadelphia Phillies - Caden Bogenpohl, CF, Missouri State
65. Seattle Mariners - Jake Brown, RF, LSU
66. Milwaukee Brewers - Jarren Advincula, 2B, Georgia Tech
67. Boston Red Sox - Carson Wiggins, RHP, Arkansas
68. St. Louis Cardinals - Alex Weingartner, CF, St. Augustine Prep HS (N.J.)
69. Detroit Tigers - Robbie Lavey, C, George Washington
70. Cincinnati Reds - Blake Bowen, CF, JSerra Catholic HS (Calif.)
71. Miami Marlins - Caden Ferraro, RF, Texas Tech
72. St. Louis Cardinals - Carter Beck, CF, Indiana St.
73. Athletics - Myles Bailey, 1B, Florida State
74. Minnesota Twins - Ethan Kleinschmit, LHP, Oregon State
75. Chicago Cubs - Jaxon Willits, SS, Oklahoma
Of the top-ranked players who aren't in this projection, it's almost entirely high school prospects with tough signability that could push them to school. RHP Coleman Borthwick (Auburn commit), C Sean Dunlap (Tennessee), SS James Clark (Duke), SS James Tronstein (Vanderbilt), RHP Joseph Contreras (Vanderbilt), LHP Bo Holloway (Vanderbilt), RHP Bryce Hill (Stanford), SS Noah Danza (Mississippi State), and RHP Jensen Hirschkorn (LSU) are real threats to end up in college.
Some high school players seem likely to either get their bonus price met in the third or fourth round or possibly go to college, but are more of a toss-up: SS Landon Thome (Florida State, son of Jim Thome, a target of the White Sox at a later pick, as well), LHP Brody Bumila (Texas, recently revealed to be injured), RHP Kaden Waechter (Florida State), SS Jace Mataczynski (Auburn) and OF Martin Shelar (Mississippi State)