Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised ... if Detroit Tigers SS/3B Kevin McGonigle finishes among the top 10 in fantasy points
McGonigle, 21, is not the only rookie named to participate in next week's All-Star game in Philadelphia. He is joined by Cincinnati Reds 1B/3B Sal Stewart and Cleveland Guardians LHP Parker Messick and 2B Travis Bazzana. Each is enjoying a tremendous season, and there are other first-year candidates for All-Star honors, including St. Louis Cardinals SS/2B JJ Wetherholt, Chicago White Sox 3B/1B Munetaka Murakami and Baltimore Orioles C Samuel Basallo.
McGonigle, however, is having the best season among rookies, and the pride of the Delaware County suburbs outside Philadelphia may end up scoring more fantasy points than all but a handful or two of hitters, including quite a few of the myriad top-20 picks in 2026 drafts who are performing well, like Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll and Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber. Injuries have hampered New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge, Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez and Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr., among many others.
Put simply, McGonigle isn't merely the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year honors, he is one of the top players in all of fantasy baseball, entering Wednesday with a .287/.398/.423 batting line, more walks than strikeouts and pacing toward 100 runs scored. Plate discipline is a big deal in points formats, and it can overshadow a lack of power. McGonigle is among the top 10 in walks, he is providing some power, and he is a perfect 11-for-11 in stolen base attempts. Combine this with a low strikeout rate and we have a top-20 fantasy scorer with the upside -- assuming durability/volume -- for more.
McGonigle was barely drafted in shallow ESPN leagues, a late-round option at best, making him one of the best values among fantasy hitters this season. Consider his plight versus Los Angeles Dodgers OF Kyle Tucker, for example. Tucker was a top-10 pick in most leagues. He averages 2.3 fantasy points per game and sits outside the top 50 hitting scorers. He is rostered in 98.1% of ESPN standard leagues. McGonigle averages 2.8 fantasy points. He is rostered in 93.3% of ESPN leagues. McGonigle is arguably one of fantasy's hitting MVPs, considering his largely nonexistent ADP, along with White Sox 3B/1B Miguel Vargas, Miami Marlins SS/2B Otto Lopez and Dodgers OF Andy Pages.
Don't be surprised ... if Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler wins his first Cy Young award
We all love Milwaukee Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski. You love him. I love him. Your plumber loves him. The hard-throwing Misiorowski is 10-4 with a league-leading 1.62 ERA, an 0.76 WHIP and on a startling pace for 297 strikeouts. He leads all pitchers in fantasy points and, despite a long list of NL pitching stars (Cristopher Sanchez, Chris Sale, Chase Burns, perhaps Paul Skenes), is the easy betting favorite for the Cy Young award on every site that offers odds. Nobody wants injury to intervene here.
Wheeler, unceremoniously ignored for an All-Star Game nod in his home city next week, is 9-1 with a 2.28 ERA and an 0.91 WHIP after Tuesday's 14-strikeout domination of the Reds. He also made it quite clear that the All-Star Game snub motivated him. Wheeler boasts 24 strikeouts over his last two outings, covering 11 2/3 innings. He is 36, more than 12 years older than "The Miz," who is in just his second MLB season.
Miz is awesome, but so is Wheeler. After all, he is the one who has made a successful -- historic, perhaps -- return from the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome, which ended his 2025 season prematurely. Wheeler made this season's debut in the final week of April. He will not start 30 games this season and, recent outings aside, he probably will fall short of 200 strikeouts. Wheeler's own narrative notes that he has already finished second in Cy Young voting two times, and he plans to retire when his contract ends after the 2027 season. Time is of the essence. Voters know this.
Fans enjoy every 105-mph pitch Misiorowski throws, but Wheeler is special, too. Fantasy managers downgraded Wheeler quite a bit this March, lacking clarity on when he would debut, pointing to his advanced (well, for baseball) age and the seriousness of his injury. Few expected Wheeler, despite his past achievements, to enter the All-Star break ranked among the top-10 pitchers in fantasy points, but here we are. It's a terrific story. Perhaps it even ends with an award.
Don't be surprised ... if Orioles revelation Blaze Alexander wins the AL batting title
Alexander, remarkably eligible at 3B, SS, 2B and OF, entered Wednesday hitting .309/.363/.430 this season -- a solid line that demanded regular playing time. Alexander, 27, certainly did not hit this way during his two seasons with the Diamondbacks. An 11th-round selection by Arizona in 2018, Alexander had some moments as a longtime minor leaguer, but he never profiled as a regular. Baltimore acquired him as spring training began, just before the Jackson Holliday hand injury was announced.
We now know that batting average is hardly the best way (perhaps not even a good way) to evaluate achievement or fantasy value, not like OPS+, wOBA, wRC+ or even WAR. But for many fantasy managers, it remains a category in our leagues. It matters. There are 12 qualified fellows hitting at least .300 this season (only two in the AL). Last season, only seven players achieved this. Hitting .300 for a full season, with every pitcher seemingly hitting 100 mph and/or spinning baseballs with regularity, is more difficult than ever, so we must acknowledge those overcoming this. With regular playing time, Alexander should eventually qualify for the batting title.
Alexander cannot come close to matching up statistically with the current AL leaders in batting average: the exalted Houston Astros OF Yordan Alvarez or Tampa Bay Rays 1B Yandy Diaz. These fellows hit for power, they draw walks and they are clear All-Stars. Alexander has only three home runs, though his nine stolen bases are helpful. But Alvarez and Diaz are rostered in every league. Alexander is close to them in batting average, and he offers rare and valuable positional eligibility. He is only 6.8% rostered in ESPN standard leagues, far below Miami's Lopez (91.4%), who profiles similarly. Alexander is hitting a cool .366/.411/.524 since May 1. Lopez is at .354/.379/.527 over that span.
Alexander is among the top-100 hitters for fantasy points over the past 30 and 60 days. In deeper leagues than ESPN's shallow formats and especially in roto/categories, the batting average and versatility are critical. Others lacking the plate appearances to qualify for the batting title but are hitting .300 include Pittsburgh Pirates OF Jake Mangum and Colorado Rockies OF Jake McCarthy. Lopez and San Francisco Giants 1B/2B Luis Arraez seem to have the NL batting race to themselves. The AL, however, is more wide open.
For the record, Alexander is one of myriad players who is rostered in fewer than 20% of ESPN standard leagues to be among the top 100 scorers for the past 30 days. That list includes Minnesota Twins 1B Josh Bell, OF Trevor Larnach and 3B/1B Royce Lewis, Rockies OF Cole Carrigg and 3B Kyle Karros, Phillies 3B Alec Bohm, Brewers OF Garrett Mitchell and White Sox OF Tristan Peters.