We have some time before the 2027 NFL draft starts in Washington, D.C., but considering that this is one of the most anticipated classes in recent memory, it's never too early to start discussing the top names. In a class that boasts great talent at quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver, defensive tackle and cornerback, there are plenty of candidates to be the No. 1 pick next April.
That's what I'm identifying here, as I've selected 16 players who could be the first overall pick next April at this point in the process. Some of these names should be quite familiar (Arch Manning, Dante Moore), while others aren't as well-known. But don't be surprised by the lesser-known players, as the two most recent No. 1 picks -- Fernando Mendoza in 2026 and Cam Ward in 2025 -- were in the "potential risers" and "long shots" categories, respectively, in the past two versions of this exercise.
Will this class see a player make a similar rise, or will the current headliners remain at the top? Let's take a look, starting with two top QBs and a couple of elite edge rushers. And we assigned percentage chances to ultimately come off the board first to each prospect.
Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders (4)
Potential risers (4)
Long shots (8)
Serious contenders
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Moore would have been a top option in this year's draft but decided to forego the NFL and return to school. That makes him arguably the top player of the QB-rich 2027 class. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder is a natural thrower who finished with 3,565 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season in his first year as a starter.
Moore operates with clean mechanics and is a precise processor when protected. His 71.8% completion percentage was the fifth-highest rate in the FBS and shows the accuracy that makes him attractive to NFL evaluators.
Scouts will be paying close attention to Moore's performances against high-caliber opponents, as he struggled against them at times last season (most notably in two losses to Indiana). He also has spurts where he can be overly conservative instead of throwing to open options downfield. Evaluators want to see Moore test more tight windows in his second season as a starter.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: There have been only two Longhorns selected with the No. 1 pick since the common draft era began in 1967 -- Earl Campbell (1978) and Kenneth Sims (1982). Manning could be the third after his second season as a starter.
I had Manning as the top pick in my way-too-early mock draft in part because of how he finished last season. A disappointing first month, highlighted by a Week 1 loss at Ohio State, was quickly followed up by a promising transformation into the player that many envisioned. Manning finished with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions, capping the season with 221 passing yards and four combined touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) against Michigan in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. He has built plenty of momentum heading into this season.
Manning is the centerpiece of a revamped Texas offense that includes two new running backs in Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown as well as a first-round receiver in Auburn transfer Cam Coleman. Manning will have a chance to redeem himself against Ohio State in Week 2; a big performance could set himself up to join his uncles Peyton Manning and Eli Manning as No. 1 picks.
Dylan Stewart, Edge, South Carolina
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 13%
Why he could be the top pick: Former Gamecocks edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney was the top pick in 2014, and there are scouts who believe Stewart is a better prospect with an even higher ceiling. At 6-5, 245 pounds, Stewart has a rare combination of bend and explosiveness off the snap. He's able to explode quickly out of the starting blocks, and his up-field momentum forces blockers to hit the panic button.
Despite his raw tools, the pass-rushing production hasn't yet matched the potential. With only 4.5 sacks last season, Stewart has not had that memorable game to win scouts over. He's also inconsistent against the run, showing good initial pop with his hands but needing to improve in disengaging and creating negative plays.
If Stewart is able to reach double-digit sacks, he could be in the No. 1 pick conversation. The last edge rusher selected with that pick was Travon Walker to the Jaguars in 2022.
Colin Simmons, Edge, Texas
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: It has been 20 years since the Longhorns have had a defender drafted in the top 10 (Michael Huff, 2006). Simmons is the reigning SEC leader in sacks (12.0), and there are scouts who believe he's the best defender in this class. At 6-3, 255 pounds, Simmons is a terror off the edge. Few blockers are able to match his up-field acceleration and counter his closing speed, which allows him to frequently finish in the backfield.
Operating primarily from a two-point stance, Simmons is an energetic and violent pass rusher who can win with a full arsenal of moves. His 16.7% pressure rate was the 15th-highest rate among all FBS defenders last season. The next phase of Simmons' development is executing counter moves when blockers are able to match his energy and physicality. He also needs to continue to add lower-body strength to hold firm as an edge setter against the run.
Potential risers
CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: Carr is a popular choice for the prospect who could make a big rise. At this point last year, he was embroiled in a training-camp battle for the QB1 spot. He won the job and justified Notre Dame's faith in him, finishing with 2,741 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. His sample size is small (12 starts), but the 6-2, 215-pound passer showcased many qualities that excite NFL evaluators.
Carr possesses a compact delivery coupled with a balanced base. He consistently plays on time and in control when in rhythm. And he isn't shy about attacking downfield, as his 9.88 air yards per attempt was the eighth most in the FBS among QBs who started at least 10 games.
After being able to rely on first-round running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, along with third-round pass catchers Malachi Fields and Eli Raridon, Carr will now be the focal point of the Irish offense. If he can take advantage of Notre Dame's favorable schedule and continue to grow, he could be the passer to rise from the pack to be the No. 1 pick. Notre Dame has had only one No. 1 overall pick during the common draft era (Walt Patulski, 1972).
Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: Mensah is the next QB transfer to join the Hurricanes, following Cam Ward and Carson Beck. Mensah spent his first two seasons at Tulane prior to breaking out at Duke in 2025, winning the ACC title with 3,973 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions.
He is a locate-and-loft thrower who plays with precision and timing from the pocket. His ability to extend plays helps create an exciting offense and gives him the ability to succeed when the original plan goes awry. A throw-first QB when escaping the pocket, Mensah makes defenses pay when he's able to create off-script.
Mensah does need to improve his ball security after eight fumbles (five lost) to go with the six interceptions in 2025. If he can take better care of the football while becoming the hub of the Miami offense, he can be the program's next QB to significantly boost his draft stock.
Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 8%
Why he could be the top pick: Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football, going from a high school backup QB in 2023 to the FBS leader in passing yards last season (4,379). He followed coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State this offseason and is a daring passer with an unorthodox three-quarters throwing motion. Mestemaker threw 34 touchdown passes to nine interceptions in 2025, showing a good arm and lacking zero confidence when it comes to testing throwing windows over the middle of the field.
His arm confidence can be a gift and a curse, though, as Mestemaker tends to force too many passes into closing areas. He also hasn't faced a Power 4 opponent in his 14 college starts, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the Big 12 competition. And scouts are already anticipating the Cowboys' Week 2 matchup against Oregon. If Mestemaker passes his test against stiffer competition, he could leapfrog many of the names currently ahead of him on draft boards.
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 5%
Why he could be the top pick: While Mestemaker has a claim, the biggest wild card in this class might be Sellers. He entered last season with prodigious hype, but the Gamecocks were a disappointing 4-8 and Sellers took a massive step back. He finished with 2,437 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. At 6-3, 240 pounds, Sellers has every tool imaginable, with upper-tier arm strength and an explosive dual-threat ability that makes him an exceptional escape artist.
Last season's struggles weren't completely on him, as Sellers was sacked 42 times (third most in FBS) and faced pressure on 42.1% of his dropbacks, 11th worst in the country. But there were plenty of flashes to keep scouts intrigued. Sellers is an excellent downfield passer, as eight of his 13 touchdown tosses were 20 or more air yards.
As stated in the early assessment of the 2027 class, there's no in-between with scouts on Sellers -- they're either very high or very low on him. His tools are a major selling point on why he could ultimately be taken at the top of the draft ... if he's able to develop into the prospect many thought he would be entering the 2025 season.
Long shots
The 'out of nowhere' quarterbacks
This has been a more common occurrence in recent seasons, with Joe Burrow's ascension to the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft being the best example of an under-the-radar quarterback shooting up draft boards. Ward was also featured in this category two years ago. I have identified four signal-callers who fit this bill in the 2027 class.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (2%): Sayin had a historically good redshirt freshman season in which his 77% completion percentage led the FBS. He finished with 3,610 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Sayin is a discover-and-distribute type passer who is decisive and wastes little time getting the ball out. He spreads the ball around to the Buckeyes' wealth of pass catchers like a point guard, taking what the defense gives him, and has zero problems stacking completions in the short-to-intermediate areas while mixing timely throws downfield.
Some warts popped up late last season, most notably in losses to Indiana and Miami. And at 6-1, 208 pounds, Sayin lacks the size and tools of passers who are normally No. 1 picks. He can assuage some of those concerns with improved pre- to post-snap coverage recognition, but there is already debate on how high he should be selected in 2027.
Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU (2%): Following a breakout 2024 season in which he helped lead Arizona State to the Big 12 title, injuries led to a disappointing 2025 for Leavitt. Now under Lane Kiffin's tutelage at LSU, Leavitt is a popular bounce-back candidate. He's a seamless fit in Kiffin's high-octane, aggressive attack that relies heavily on the QB. Leavitt needs to control his jumpy nature when progressing off initial reads, but there's plenty of excitement from scouts about what he could do in the Tigers' new-look offense.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (2%): There isn't a returning QB who finished last season stronger than Chambliss did. His heroics in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal win against Georgia capped a season in which he finished with 3,937 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Chambliss is an electric, dual-threat playmaker who presents constant headaches for defenses. Despite being undersized at 6-foot, 205 pounds, he has defied the odds since starting his career at Division II Ferris State and could continue to ascend.
Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (2%): Maiava was great in his first full season as a starter in 2025, finishing with 3,711 passing yards and 24 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. He showed poise and an ease with attacking downfield, with his 37 completions on passes of 20 or more air yards leading the FBS. Another season under Lincoln Riley could result in even more success. Maiava still needs to limit his compounding mistakes, as his mechanics and footwork become wonky when teams are able to get consistent pressure on him.
Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: There has never been a defensive back selected with the No. 1 pick in the common draft era (since 1967), but Moore's talent makes him a worthy inclusion. He will be mentioned in the same breath as some of the best cornerback prospects over the past 20 years. You have to go back to 1991 to find an Irish defensive back (Todd Lyght, Rams) who was drafted inside the top five.
At 6-2, 197 pounds, Moore's length, fluidity and ball skills are excellent. His five interceptions last season were tied for third most in the FBS. Scouts still want to see his technique and tackling be more consistent throughout games, and Moore also must continue to add mass onto his frame.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Smith will enter this season as the top player on my 2027 board and is the definition of a blue-chip prospect. The last wide receiver to be selected with the top pick was Keyshawn Johnson by the Jets in 1996. Smith will be mentioned among the greatest wide receiver prospects of the past quarter century, and the fact that he is in the running for the top pick speaks volumes.
Smith has made an impact since arriving in Columbus and is the next man up in the Buckeyes' first-round wide receiver pipeline. A strong argument could be made that he's the best prospect of the recent Ohio State bunch, which saw Carnell Tate and Marvin Harrison Jr. both go No. 4 in the past two years.
Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: The Longhorns went 23 years between first-round offensive tackles, a drought that was stopped by Kelvin Banks Jr. in 2025 (No. 9 to the Saints). Goosby could make it two in three years, as he is a potential-laden, gangly built blocker with experience at both tackle spots.
The 6-7, 325-pound Goosby has the length NFL teams covet. He allowed only one sack and seven pressures last season, his first as a starter. With upper-tier tools, it's easy to see Goosby continuing to ascend draft boards.
Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 1%
Why he could be the top pick: Seaton was inconsistent during his first two seasons at Colorado after signing as a five-star recruit in 2024, but few offensive tackles move as easily as he does at 6-5, 302 pounds. His balance and body control in pass protection are among the best in this tackle class. He is also a capable run blocker who still has room for growth.
Seaton enters a crucial third season after transferring to LSU. If he can improve and withstand the weekly tests in the SEC, he could become the first offensive tackle drafted No. 1 since 2013 (Eric Fisher, Chiefs).