Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and the price tag on their next contracts are about to be a topic of intense discussion and scrutiny around the NHL.
Each is entering the final season of their respective six-year deals, with Hughes making $7.85 million and Makar earning $9 million.
Hughes won the Norris Trophy in 2024, was traded in December to the Minnesota Wild and helped transform them into a Stanley Cup contender. Makar, a two-time Norris winner, guided the Colorado Avalanche to a Cup in 2022, and has a chance to help them win at least one more in the near future.
The projected price tag for this? It's expected to be a lot. As in, a lot a lot.
"The talk on the street right now is it's anywhere between $15 and $20 million a year, depending upon the term," an agent told ESPN. "Now we're starting to talk close to NBA comparables, and as an agent, I love it, but I know when you're trying to build a team, it's a bit more complicated."
The deals for Hughes and Makar will be the next steps for the NHL in catching up to other leagues. Let's say they receive $20 million annually. That would be the highest contract by average annual value (AAV) in the NHL but would rank 72nd in the NFL, tied for 75th in Major League Baseball and 95th in the NBA.
There are long-term implications for the rest of the league. In addition to resetting the market for defensemen at the top end, it could have a trickle-down effect in changing expectations for blueliners at varying talent levels.
One could argue this started years ago. Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty and then-San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson both signed eight-year contracts; Doughty's was worth $11 million annually, and Karlsson's was $11.5 million.
The first year of those contracts was the 2019-20 season, which was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Every part of the NHL was affected by the "pause," with the introduction of a flat salary cap being among the most notable changes.
Despite the flat cap, defensemen were still signing big deals, including Makar in July 2021 and Hughes in October of that year with the Vancouver Canucks. But it wasn't until 2023 when Rasmus Dahlin became the next defenseman to make more than $10 million annually, signing an eight-year deal with an $11 million AAV with the Buffalo Sabres.
By 2025, the NHL had two more defensemen in that club: Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars (eight years, $10.587 million AAV) and Evan Bouchard of the Edmonton Oilers (four years, $10.5 million AAV).
A key factor? The rising salary cap. The limit was $81.5 million in 2021-22 but has grown in recent seasons and is $104 million for the upcoming 2026-27 season.
"What you're now seeing is with the new change in the cap system, the cap hits have gone up, with the NHL and the NHL Players Association taking out a lot of the slack that was in the system," another agent noted. "After COVID, the league was suppressed for many years as far as how much guys could make or how much the cap could go up, because they didn't want to put the sport in a bad position. That was a great call by the NHL and the NHLPA."
The eight-figure defenseman club will be adding more members, and it already has this offseason with Bowen Byram.
He was entering the last season of a two-year bridge deal worth $6.25 million annually when he was traded on June 23 from the Sabres to the Chicago Blackhawks. Days after the trade, the Blackhawks made the 25-year-old Byram the NHL's highest-paid defenseman, signing him to a six-year deal worth $12.5 million annually that will start in the 2027-28 season.
"The interesting thing about Byram is he had a year left on his deal and he wasn't interested in re-signing in Buffalo," another agent said. "That allowed him to create a sort of mini free agency for himself at a time when the league was flush with cap space and there were no significant players on the market."
ESPN interviewed four agents on the condition of anonymity so they could speak freely about how defensemen are about to get richer, what profile of defensemen can cash in and what this could all mean for the NHL going forward.
"These contracts are going to reinforce their standing amongst the league's best," a different agent explained. "I don't think you're going to continue to see this old disparity that the forwards are going to get paid more than the defensemen. This is going to completely disprove that."
HAVING A PUCK-MOVING DEFENSEMAN on the roster is essential to serious Cup contention.
Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev and Zach Werenski were part of the first wave. A second wave was headlined by Miro Heiskanen, Adam Fox, Bouchard, Dahlin, Hughes and Makar. Then there was a third wave, including Brock Faber, Noah Dobson, Luke Hughes, Jackson LaCombe, Jake Sanderson, Moritz Seider, Byram and Harley. The latest wave features Lane Hutson and Matthew Schaefer, among others.
Five of the past six Norris Trophy winners have come from that list. Altogether, it's 18 examples in a 32-team league, proving that any franchise serious about winning needs a defenseman like these on its roster.
"A tide raises all boats, but there's obviously peaks of those waves that come in," the first agent said. "As much as certain guys aren't Hughes and Makar, there are certain elements that are similar or they're somewhere on that scale. This is an extremely leapfrog business. As a player, you want someone to go out and set a new high watermark, because that ultimately ends up benefiting you. Even if you don't get to that high watermark, it allows the whole market to shift upward and that's beneficial from a player's perspective."
That's when the discussion among the agents shifts to Byram.
Byram has long been projected to be a team's No. 1 option, going back to when he was drafted No. 4 in 2019. The biggest challenge has been who was in front of him. He was drafted by the Avalanche, who already had Makar. It was similar when he was traded to the Sabres, who already had Dahlin.
Going to a rebuilding team like the Blackhawks creates the idea that Byram can finally receive the minutes that come with being a team's top defenseman in 5-on-5, penalty-kill and power-play situations.
Byram, 25, is averaging more than 21 minutes in his career. But he has had only one season in which he finished with more than 40 points -- this past season in Buffalo with 11 goals and 42 points.
Chicago received criticism for trading the No. 4 pick in the 2026 draft to acquire Byram. But to then sign him to a deal worth $12.5 million annually as well?
The agents we spoke to said those questions are easy to answer when taking a step back.
"What people don't seem to be pointing out enough with Byram is that he was poised to be [an unrestricted free agent] at 26 which, in the system, is as young as you could possibly be as an UFA," the second agent said. "Some of these other guys who get eight-year deals that take them to the wrong side of 30 -- it's a little bit different with Byram, because his contract covers him from 26 to 32. That had to play a role, but it ultimately relates to the market."
The third agent explained that though the Blackhawks "definitely took some heat" with Byram's contract, they did it because it's difficult finding players who fit that Hughes and Makar archetype (or come close to it).
Minnesota traded Zeev Buium, Liam Ohgren and Marco Rossi -- who were all first-round picks -- and an actual first-round pick to Vancouver to get Hughes. The Montreal Canadiens traded a pair of 2025 first-round picks and Emil Heineman, who scored 20 goals in 2025-26, to the New York Islanders for Dobson in June 2025, and then signed him to an eight-year extension worth $9.5 million annually.
The third agent said that the NHL is a copycat league. The 2026 playoffs served as a reminder that having players with size matters. That's why this year's draft led to teams going after bigger players, while bigger, bottom-six forwards earned massive paydays in free agency.
But those young puck-moving defensemen? There weren't exactly a plethora of them available.
"Another thing is teams are trying to get ahead of it," the third agent said. "Players used to get paid a lot on past performance, and now everyone is [adjusting] to pay players on what they can do today and tomorrow. They'll give value to what they've done in the past, but it's not the same value as it was eight or 10 years ago."
Are the puck movers the only ones who can command higher salaries? Will shutdown defensemen -- or those who produce points but aren't necessarily the most prolific -- earn more than $10 million annually?
"There's the players I call the minute munchers," the third agent said. "They're going to play the most 5-on-5 minutes, they can probably play on first PK and second PP. Those guys are going to get paid now. The value kind of always went to the point producers, but teams are now realizing that those minute munchers are as important or in some cases, maybe more important than those point producers because of how much they play."
The fourth agent said this newfound cap space is going to create a tiered structure in which defensemen will get paid commensurate to their level.
"You're going to have your first pair, second pair and third pair, but there's going to be a huge line in the sand with who's at the top," the agent said. "Teams are eventually going to be playing them that much because they are paying them that much."
Which brings us back to Byram.
The fourth agent said there was a chance more teams could do what then-Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams did. He traded for Byram, adding a player who was projected to be a top-pairing defenseman, and played him on the second pairing. Buffalo got Byram on a deal that was an already team-friendly price tag of $3.85 million, before signing him to a two-year bridge deal.
When it came time for Byram to move on because the prospect of keeping him was going to get too expensive, current Sabres GM Jarmo Kekalainen received draft capital in return, then turned around and added another defenseman in a similar position Byram was in with the Avs, acquiring Olen Zellweger from the Anaheim Ducks.
"It was a lot like Byram in that Anaheim's D core was stacked with Zellweger," the fourth agent said. "But you're essentially resetting the clock on a guy at a certain position. Buffalo signed Zellweger to a three-year deal and it was similar to what the Sabres did with Byram when they got him. What's to say three years from now, you see Zellweger becoming Byram?"
HUGHES AND MAKAR have already been at the genesis of one trickle-down effect when it came to what defensemen were making once their entry-level deals expired. That led to younger defensemen like Hutson and Sanderson signing for more than $8 million annually.
All of the agents ESPN interviewed said the next contracts that Hughes and Makar sign are going to have a significant impact on the newest wave of young defensemen when it comes to what they could command after their entry-level contracts expire.
There is one who could make $10 million annually.
"That's happening. There's no doubt about it," the second agent said. "There's no world in which Matthew Schaefer's next contract doesn't have a double-digit AAV."
Hutson and Sanderson making more than Hughes shows that there's a precedent for younger players earning more than their older contemporaries.
The fourth agent agreed that this progression positions Schaefer to be the first defenseman to make more than $10 million annually on the first deal after his entry-level contract. But he shouldn't be in any hurry to get something done.
"If he repeats this in his second year and if I was Schaefer, I would not look to extend," the fourth agent said. "I would look to play my contract out to show I am who I am. I would do this for three consecutive years, and then push for whatever the market it is at that point. It could be between $16 to $18 million. I would go short [term] because I would want to stay in the market."
Any defensemen who are in line for a massive payout must also consider if there's such a thing as too much money for one player -- and the unintended consequences it might have on their teams.
"Term is the most important thing for a lot of our guys heading into free agency, or even into a contract discussion," the first agent said.
Even more than the actual dollar amount?
"Yes, because at this point, these guys are at the stage where they have the ability to map out how their career looks," they said. "You're seeing the extreme example with Connor McDavid. His confidence led to a very short-term deal. These guys are all competitors. They want to win. Some of them have already won a few times and they want to set down roots and be totally comfortable."
The third agent shared a story about one of his clients who is signed to a deal worth more than $10 million annually. The player was in a position to ask for more money but had to weigh whether it was worth taking that extra money or leaving it on the table if it meant the team could add help elsewhere.
"When you're an agent, the client drives the boat," the agent said. "Our job is to try to get as much value out of the team as possible for our client. At the end of the day, if the client tells you they want to hit a certain level and leave money on the table because they want to build a better team, there's nothing more 'hockey culture' than somebody understanding that team concept.
"But we are also seeing more guys who aren't afraid to say, 'I'm going to get my money and I don't care what happens to everyone around me.' That's the dilemma that players and GMs have."