NRL Round 20 tipping, expert tips, best tips, sure thing, upset chance

State of Origin has been run and won and the final eight rounds await, with plenty of teams caught up in a desperate race to the finals. Last week the "sure thing" finally came through and the "roughie" Cowboys surprised many with their defeat of the Sea Eagles.

Tipping all the winners each weekend is near impossible, so we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.


The sure thing

New Zealand Warriors vs. St George Illawarra Dragons, Go Media Stadium, Saturday July 18, 5:30pm (AEST)

This really should be the surest of sure things, with the second-placed Warriors hosting the last-placed Dragons, determined to maintain their ladder position as they fine tune their game on the way to the finals. And that's what worries me the most, the surest things have been losing a bit of late, the Warriors are not playing at their peak, and the Dragons have been capable of some good football at times.

Still, if we are to take the Warriors' premiership tilt seriously, they should win this and win this comfortably. They will definitely have to tidy up their backline work, as they spilled the ball way too many times last week against the Tigers. If their attack does click, this could be a cricket score, because we have seen the Dragons play tough for periods of a game before clocking off; they are heading towards the wooden spoon for a reason.

Round 20 sure thing: Warriors


The toss of the coin

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. Newcastle Knights, Ocean Protect Park, Friday July 17, 6pm (AEST)

The Sharks surprised in last week's toss of the coin game with a 66-0 smashing of the Dolphins. On publishing last week, I could not split the two teams, but the Dolphins did then rest all of their Origin stars, so that is my excuse. Still the Sharks were very slick and impressively resolute in defence.

The Knights were disappointing in the first half against the Rabbitohs last week, and by the time they got their act together it was too late, they just fell short.

We all know how inconsistent the Sharks can be, and the Knights are surely a better team than the one we saw last week. This really is a toss of the coin game, with the Sharks landing face up, on the back of the confidence they will carry over from last week.

Toss of the coin game winner: Sharks


The roughie

Canberra Raiders vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs, GIO Stadium, Saturday July 18, 3pm (AEST)

The Raiders recaptured some of last season's sparkle in soundly beating the Bulldogs last week, while the Rabbitohs had the Knights beaten early before slacking off late in the second half, only just surviving the fightback.

The Raiders are clinging to their mathematical chances of making the finals, while the Rabbitohs are hunting a Top 4 finish. For some reason the Raiders are favourites to win this at home, but I think the Rabbitohs should get the points on a brisk Saturday afternoon in Canberra.

Round 20 roughie: Rabbitohs

Click here for a full guide to NRL Round 20.