At this time of the season, the boffins at NRL HQ are always looking to trial rule changes in games that have no significance in determining the outcome of the season. Those games are few and far between this year, with 16 of the final 18 clashes having some relevance to the make-up of the Top 8. Ironically, a rematch of last year's grand final offers the best opportunity for the NRL to further mess with our great game. All the other games this weekend are "live".
With the two rounds remaining, the historic JJ Giltinan Shield, a cheque for $200,000 and home ground advantage through the finals are all up for grabs in one of the most hotly contested battles for the minor premiership in NRL history.
New Zealand Warriors, Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters are level on 38 points at the top of the ladder, with the for-and-against differential margin between the Warriors and Panthers being just one point. The Warriors achieved that advantage last week with a 79th minute field goal by Luke Hanson against the Rabbitohs in a game they won 45-26. The Roosters are in third position with a differential which is 132 behind that of the Panthers.
The Dolphins are one win behind the pack and mathematically still in the hunt, but with a differential that is 22 points worse than that of the Roosters.
Finishing the season atop the ladder does not necessarily give you an advantage when the grand final rolls around. In the past 10 years the minor premiers have gone on to play in seven grand finals, but were only victorious on four occasions. Melbourne Storm collected the J.J. Giltinan Shield on five of those 10 occasions and won the title just twice.
Still, the four teams in contention will do everything in their power to raise the historic shield.
The Warriors face the Knights at home on Sunday afternoon, looking to collect the two competition points and extend their differential beyond 295. The Knights are currently in sixth position and are more than capable of winning this clash, with injuries biting into both teams. The Warriors will then finish their season hosting the Sea Eagles, who really should be out of the finals picture by then.
The Panthers, with their differential of 294, take on the desperate Bulldogs this Friday in Parramatta. The Bulldogs need a win to stay in the race for the finals, while the Panthers would be more than happy to ruin their season on the way to staying in the minor premiership race. Penrith finish the season hosting the Tigers, who may already be in Bali by then. The last time they played the Tigers they gave their differential a very healthy 68-point boost and could be looking for more of the same in the final round.
The Roosters were sitting pretty at the top of the ladder, with the minor premiership theirs to lose, and they might just have done that with an inexplicable loss to the Tigers last week. They have the toughest finish of the three teams currently sharing the top rung, hosting the Dolphins on Saturday afternoon before visiting archrivals South Sydney in the final round. But of those teams have plenty to play for, with the Dolphins hoping to at least hang onto their Top 4 position, and the Rabbitohs playing for their place in the finals.
The Dolphins need to win their last two games and have the three teams above them collapse to miraculously claim the minor premiership. They will realistically be very happy to finish in the Top 4 on the way to their first ever finals appearance. While the minor premier doesn't always take the trophy, no team in the NRL era has ever won the premiership from outside of the Top 4.
If the Warriors and Panthers both win their final two games, the importance of their winning margins will see them play flat out the full 80 minutes, in desperate efforts to improve their differentials. It makes for some exciting footy in the run to the pointy end of the season.
At the other end of the Top 8 we have four teams racing to fill the final two places in the finals. The Rabbitohs and Cowboys are seventh and eighth respectively, both on 30 points but with Souths having a differential of 63, way ahead of the Cowboys' -78, -70 of which came entirely in their Round 22 capitulation to the Roosters.
The Bulldogs lurk in ninth position on 28 points, with a current differential of -32, while the Sea Eagles are still mathematically in it on 26 points with a 66-point differential.
Manly have to win both of their remaining matches, against the Dragons at home and the Warriors away, and hope the three teams above them lose all of theirs. They would then leap over the Bulldogs and knock the Cowboys out on a superior differential. If the Rabbitohs or Cowboys win either of their remaining games, the Sea Eagles' season is over. The Rabbitohs are away to the Titans on Saturday afternoon, before hosting the Roosters in a final round blockbuster.
The Cowboys host the Tigers Saturday night, before the Raiders the following week. With both opponents out of the picture, they really should pick up the four competition points, but they have been alarmingly inconsistent this year.
The Bulldogs face their biggest test on Friday night when they tackle the Panthers at Parramatta. They were the first team to topple Penrith this season with a 32-16 Round 6 upset and will be quietly confident of doing it again. They will then face the enigma that is the Broncos, at home on the Thursday night. If they win both games, they will still need either team above them to stumble, at least once in the case of the Cowboys and twice for the Rabbitohs.
As you can see, it is as clear as mud as we prepare ourselves for a thrilling couple of weeks. Seriously, who needs a wildcard round?