World Cup quarterfinals: How we got here, predictions, odds

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          Leboeuf: Paraguay was everything I hate about football vs. France (3:11)

          • ESPN
          Jul 8, 2026, 06:00 AM ET

          And then there were eight. Four full weeks after the 2026 FIFA World Cup began, and 95 games later, the quarterfinals kick off Thursday with each remaining team only three wins away from becoming world champions.

          We've seen 40 teams -- including co-hosts Canada, Mexico and the United States, as well traditional powerhouses Brazil and Germany -- fall by the wayside over the past month.

          Now only reigning world champions Argentina plus Belgium, England, France, Morocco, Norway, Spain and Switzerland are left to dream about winning the final in New Jersey on July 19.

          - The 8 most important players of the World Cup quarterfinals
          - Golden Boot tracker: Who will score most goals at the World Cup?
          - Grades for every team eliminated from the World Cup: U.S. gets a C

          But how did we get here? Who are the players who have stood out the most? And what are the moments that we'll never forget?

          ESPN's Sam Marsden brings you up to date with answers to all of those questions, Sam Tighe looks at where the four quarterfinals will be won and lost, a selection of our writers who have been reporting on the tournament give us their predictions on the winner of each matchup, and we'll bring you the latest betting odds for each tie via DraftKings.

          France vs. Morocco (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET | Foxborough, Mass.)

          France flagFRANCE

          How they got here: France's progress to this stage has been relatively trouble free. They have won all five games, scoring 14 goals and overpowering teams with the attacking brilliance of Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise. Senegal (3-1), Iraq (3-0) and Norway (4-1) were comfortably beaten in the group stage, before Sweden were dispatched 3-0 in the round of 32. Paraguay did a better job of keeping them at bay in the round of 16, with their physical approach offering a different challenge, but a second-half penalty from Mbappé ensured the 2018 winners progressed to the last eight.

          Star player so far: Mbappé (seven goals, two assists) edges over Dembélé (four goals, two assists) and Olise (five assists). Mbappé's World Cup record is stunning: he has 19 goals in 19 appearances -- a figure bettered only by Lionel Messi -- and is again driving Les Bleus' push for a third World Cup title.

          Best moment so far: Given the ease with which they have advanced, there has not been that big moment at a time of need, but France have produced breathtaking bits of beauty. Mbappé's goals in the win over Sweden showcased not only his killer instinct, but also the link-up play between him, Olise and Dembélé.

          Morocco flagMOROCCO

          How they got here: After impressing in their opening game, a 1-1 draw with Brazil, Morocco proved far too good for Scotland (1-0) and Haiti (4-2) as they breezed through the group stage to set up a mouth-watering tie with Netherlands. With 90 minutes on the clock against the Dutch they were heading out, but a stoppage-time header from Issa Diop took the game to extra time. Mohamed Ouahbi's side then advanced via a nail-biting 3-2 penalty shootout win before seeing off co-hosts Canada far more convincingly (3-0) in Houston to set up a rematch with France, who beat them in the semifinals four years ago.

          Star player so far: Ismael Saibari delivered in the group stage, scoring three goals, and Brahim Díaz and Azzedine Ounahi have had their moments, but captain Achraf Hakimi is the leader of this side. The Paris Saint-Germain right back has dominated his flank in defense and attack, delivering a goal and two assists.

          Best moment so far: Beating co-hosts Canada with such little fuss was striking, but the victory over Netherlands provided the most drama. You could even pick two highlights from that match: Diop's late tying goal, or Saibari's winning spot kick. -- Marsden

          Where this game will be won? France have been by far the best team at this tournament. They're fantastic in almost every area, and taking them on feels like a truly daunting task. If any team outside of the heavy hitters have the kind of bold, never-say-die attitude to dethrone them it's perhaps Morocco -- but the key question is whether or not the north African side have enough left in the tank to pull it off.

          World Cups can start to feel very long for upstart nations who make a deep run, as they typically lack the depth to manage fatigue. The Atlas Lions have already been to penalties once and star striker Saibari -- who joined Bayern Munich mid-tournament - has a hamstring problem. To hold the ferocious trio of Mbappé, Olise and Dembélé at bay, Morocco will need to be at full capacity. But four grueling weeks in, can we trust that they are? -- Tighe

          Predictions

          Lizzy Becherano: France 3-1 Morocco. It's hard not to consider France the overwhelming favorites after the tournament they've had. Morocco are strong, but Mbappé and Dembélé can be stronger.

          Jeff Carlisle: France 2-0 Morocco. Morocco are talented and have come a long way over the past several years, but France have too many attacking options, with Mbappé and Olise, to be denied.

          Bill Connelly: France 2-0 Morocco. Morocco are adaptable and could bunker in at times like Paraguay, but because they'll actually try to win, they'll eventually leave spaces for France to pounce.

          Rob Dawson: France 1-0 Morocco. Morocco will give France a test, but they don't have the same defensive stability as they did in Qatar and France's attacking players will be too much.

          Beth Lindop: France 2-1 Morocco. Morocco are the underdogs at this tournament, just as they were in Qatar four years ago. But I think France's supreme attacking quality will see them edge it.

          Gab Marcotti: France 2-0 Morocco. If this were the Morocco of 2022, built around stout defending and counterattacking you could see a scenario where they park the bus and score in transition (a bit like Paraguay tried, the difference being that Morocco have A LOT more quality). But they're built to play and out-football opponents and when they try to defend, they concede chances (witness the Canada game). And if it's straight football, France's quality gives them a clear edge.

          James Olley: France 2-1 Morocco. The Paraguay win was labored but France have still been the best team at this World Cup so far. Morocco don't look capable of the same stifling job that Paraguay did and while they can score, the logical bet is France's superior quality sees them through.

          Mark Ogden: France 1-1 Morocco (Morocco win on penalties). Paraguay showed in the round of 32 that France can be contained and frustrated with resolute defending, and Morocco can do that, and they can also hurt France at the other end. There is also a burning desire to avenge the 2022 semifinal defeat, so I'm taking Morocco after a nail-biter.

          Odds (via DraftKings, correct at time of publication)

          France: -370
          Morocco: +285

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          Merino: Huge relief to score crucial goal

          Spain vs. Belgium (Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Inglewood, Calif.)

          Spain flagSPAIN

          How they got here: Spain have not hit top gear yet, but there has never really been the sense that the European champions were in danger, either. Despite being held to a surprise goalless draw by Cape Verde in their opener, Spain eased through Group H with wins against Saudi Arabia (4-0) and Uruguay (1-0) before comfortably beating Austria 3-0. They had to sweat for victory against Portugal in the round of 16, but they always looked the more likely winner and Mikel Merino's 90th-minute strike gave them the 1-0 result to send them through. Slow progress has allowed players who were fitness doubts, like Rodri and Lamine Yamal, to find some match rhythm, while the tournament's best defense has kept things drama free; Luis de la Fuente's side are yet to concede a goal.

          Star player so far: While Spain wait for Yamal, who came into the tournament with a hamstring injury, to find top form, Mikel Oyarzabal has stepped up. The Real Sociedad striker struck twice in wins against Saudi Arabia and Austria, although he missed a big chance to continue his scoring run against Portugal.

          Best moment so far: Arsenal midfielder Merino has a knack for saving Spain. He scored the winner against Germany in the quarterfinals at the last European Championship and again stepped off the bench and up to the plate against Portugal. His goal, with extra time looming, was the biggest moment of Spain's campaign so far.

          Belgium flagBELGIUM

          How they got here: Belgium struggled to get going in the group stage and were on the brink of elimination against Senegal, yet are still alive after beating co-hosts United States 4-1 in Seattle. Draws with Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) had meant the 5-1 hammering of New Zealand was necessary just to reach the knockouts.

          Once there, they found themselves down 2-0 against Senegal with five minutes to play. Late goals from Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans somehow took the match to extra time, where Tielemans won it with a 125th-minute penalty. They then channeled the furor around Folarin Balogun's overturned suspension to emphatically dump out the U.S.

          Star player so far: Different players have stepped up at different times for Belgium, but winger Leandro Trossard has been their most consistent. He has registered two goals and two assists, while creating a tournament-high 17 chances.

          Best moment so far: Beating the co-hosts after the noise around the Balogun case was a great story, but the victory over Senegal was more dramatic. The fact it felt barely deserved, given the Lions of Teranga had been the better side, only added to the wildness as first Lukaku and then Tielemans netted in three mad minutes at the end of the second half. -- Marsden

          Where this game will be won? Belgium looked flat and uninspired for the first four games, but something lit a fire under them for the round of 16 clash with the U.S., which they won convincingly. For the first time this tournament, they imposed themselves on a team fully, won the midfield battle and reaped the rewards. But getting the better of Malik Tillman and Tyler Adams is one thing; getting the better of Rodri and Pedri? Quite another.

          Spain haven't wowed anybody so far in this World Cup, but they are the best team when it comes to controlling the speed of the game, and they are yet to concede a goal. In order to beat them, you have to knock them off their stride and make them uncomfortable. Do Belgium have it in them to disrupt such a cool, calm and collected opponent? -- Tighe

          Predictions

          Becherano: Spain 1-0 Belgium. This is more even than people may think. Belgium looked great against the United States, while Spain struggled until the last minute vs. Portugal. It'll be a tight match, but Spain will come out on top due to individual talent.

          Carlisle: Spain 2-0 Belgium. As emphatic as Belgium's win over the U.S. was, I think this is where it ends for them as La Roja's defense have been lights-out in this World Cup, and the attack just good enough.

          Connelly: Spain 2-0 Belgium. As Austria's Ralf Rangnick put it after Spain trounced his team: "I can't remember a single unforced error they made." That Belgium proved expert at pouncing on the USA's mistakes in the last round probably doesn't apply here.

          Dawson: Spain 3-0 Belgium. Belgium aren't very good, and Spain are growing into the tournament.

          Lindop: Spain 3-1 Belgium. Belgium have found their stride in the past two games, but I don't think they'll be able to prevail against a Spain side that have superior players in almost every position.

          Marcotti: Spain 2-0 Belgium. I like the narrative of an upset with goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois pulling off miracles, Charles De Ketelaere terrorizing Pau Cubarsi and Romelu Lukaku coming off the bench to score (again). But come on, Belgium haven't been good. The reigning European champions have to be clear favorites. And remember, Yamal hasn't really shown up yet.

          Olley: Spain 2-0 Belgium. The USMNT were awful against Belgium, so that 4-1 scoreline has to be put in the right context. This is not a vintage Belgium team and having gone with Spain to win the whole thing, I have to back them here. They may just be doing enough each round and they can go to another level.

          Ogden: Belgium 0-1 Spain. Spain are boring to watch. Sorry, but their risk-averse football has no place at this incredible World Cup. This will be a close game, but Belgium are better than their group performances and they can genuinely hurt Spain.

          Odds (via DraftKings, correct at time of publication)

          Spain: - 340
          Belgium: +260

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          Gündoğan: England are clear favourites vs. Norway

          Norway vs. England (Saturday, 5 p.m. ET | Miami Gardens, Fla.)

          Norway flagNORWAY

          How they got here: Norway hammered Iraq 4-1, edged a thriller against Senegal 3-2 and then rested some of their best players for a 4-1 defeat against France after their place in the knockout rounds was already assured. That decision was justified when Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 thanks to Erling Haaland's 86th-minute winner to set up a round-of-16 meeting with Brazil. What followed was what coach Stale Solbakken lauded "the greatest day in Norwegian football history," a 2-1 win over the five-time World Cup winners, courtesy of a late Haaland brace, and a place in the quarterfinals for the first time.

          Star player so far: Haaland has scored in each of his four appearances: twice against Iraq, twice against Senegal, a late winner against Ivory Coast and a superb match-clinching double against Brazil. Seven goals in his first World Cup for a nation outside of the established elite is a remarkable return, even by the Manchester City striker's ridiculous standards.

          Best moment so far: The late victory against Ivory Coast was sweet, but nothing, so far, can beat Haaland's brace against Brazil. After netting a header in the 79th minute, Haaland added a second via a powerful low drive in the 90th to secure, what he aptly referred to, "one of the sickest days ever in Norwegian history."

          England flagENGLAND

          How they got here: England got off to a flying start with a 4-2 win over Croatia, but that momentum stalled with a stodgy goalless draw with Ghana. Things have not been straightforward since. After an uninspiring 2-0 win against Panama set up a round-of-32 meeting with Congo DR, their campaign took a step toward infamy when they went behind early against the African side. A late two-goal salvo from Harry Kane sealed a 3-2 win and spared their blushes.

          A major test against co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City followed where they overcame the fierce Azteca crowd, altitude fears, a Jarell Quansah red card and a late onslaught to win 3-2 thanks to a Jude Bellingham brace and a Kane penalty.

          Star player so far: Bellingham scored against Croatia and was the match winner against Panama with a goal and an assist, but his performance against Mexico was one of the best from an England player in recent years. His double laid the foundations for a magnificent victory and elevated him, for now, above Kane, who is also having a fine tournament with six goals and an assist.

          Best moment so far: In terms of a moment of pure release, Kane's late winner against Congo DR provided that high because of the timing, the quality and the significance. It capped a 15-minute brace that will live long in the memory of England fans. -- Marsden

          Where this game will be won? England's strength at this World Cup has been in attack; they've scored 11 goals in five games, with Kane and Bellingham hitting turbo mode. The defense have been far less convincing, however, with poor performances in the defensive line and a rotating door at right back. You can say the same thing for Norway, who have scored 12 times but have conceded nine, the most of any team still in this tournament. It points to a genuine fire-vs.-fire matchup here.

          England center backs Marc Guéhi and John Stones have both played with Haaland at Man City, so may have some inside knowledge on how to stop him, while the Norwegian has scored just once against Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa) in five attempts and once against Dan Burn (Newcastle United) in eight attempts. Will any of this help keep the giant striker at bay, or at the very least, cap his effectiveness to the point where Kane and Bellingham can outscore him? -- Tighe

          Predictions

          Becherano: Norway 3-2 England. England triumphed against Mexico but looked absolutely exhausted after the match, whereas Norway enter the match better rested.

          Carlisle: Norway 2-1 England. Both teams expended a lot of energy in their respective quarterfinals, but England look as if they emptied the tank against Mexico, which should allow Haaland & Co. to prevail.

          Connelly: England 3-2 Norway. Norway's defense is likely their fatal flaw, but let's just assume that Haaland still scores a goal or two.

          Rob Dawson: England 2-1 Norway. Norway have Haaland, but they aren't great defensively. Kane will be licking his lips.

          Beth Lindop: England 3-1 Norway. Norway have been the feel-good story of the summer and I'm backing Haaland to get on the scoresheet again, but England will be flying high after that landmark win over Mexico.

          Gab Marcotti: England 2-1 Norway. Truth be told, this could go either way. But I'm basing it on the fact that Norway won't be able to play the way they did against Brazil and on the fact that England have more individual matchwinners.

          James Olley: England 3-1 Norway. Tuchel is making England believers. The performance against Mexico was on a different plane to anything they've produced at this World Cup so far. They defended as a unit and attacked with ruthlessness. Their collective self-belief should skyrocket. Haaland will fancy his chances against England's center backs, however, and he could turn the game on its head. But Tuchel came up with a plan to get past Mexico. He can do the same again on Saturday.

          Mark Ogden: England 3-2 Norway. Norway are more than just the Haaland team. They are a solid, dangerous team and will push England all the way, but England have greater all round quality and where Norway have Haaland, England have Kane.

          Odds (via DraftKings, correct at time of publication)

          Norway: +180
          England: -225

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          Will Argentina 'fear' facing Switzerland?

          Argentina vs. Switzerland (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET | Kansas City, Mo.)

          Argentina flagARGENTINA

          How they got here: Inspired by Lionel Messi, Argentina flew through their group with wins over Algeria (3-0), Austria (2-0) and Jordan (3-1), but they have run into huge problems in each of their knockout games so far. It took extra time to finally see off Cape Verde as the World Cup debutants twice came from behind to threaten one of the tournament's biggest-ever upsets against the holders, who won 3-2. Things looked even more dire against Egypt when, with just over 10 minutes to go, they found themselves 2-0 down. Two goals in four minutes, via Cristian Romero and Messi, levelled the tie and set the stage for Enzo Fernández's incredible 93rd-minute winner for another 3-2 victory.

          Star player so far: Even at 39, Messi has been head and shoulders above his teammates. The World Cup's record goal scorer has netted a tournament-high eight of his team's 13 goals, set up another and was the driving force in the comeback against Egypt. The Inter Miami star has very much still got it.

          Best moment so far: The Cape Verde game was ridiculous but Argentina were never behind in the tie, whereas they were not only on the ropes against Egypt, they looked on their way out. Fernández's header, therefore, to book a quarterfinal with Switzerland led to wild scenes in Atlanta brimming with joy and, above all, relief.

          Switzerland flagSWITZERLAND

          How they got here: Switzerland have progressed to the last eight without making much noise. A 1-1 draw with Qatar was far from the ideal start, but a big 4-1 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina laid the foundations for them to top Group B courtesy of a 2-0 victory over co-hosts Canada. Algeria were beaten 2-0 without fuss in the round of 32 before a tense, goalless game with Colombia went all the way to penalties. After Davinson Sánchez and Cucho Hernández missed, Rubén Vargas scored from the spot to send the Swiss to a first quarterfinal since they hosted the World Cup in 1954.

          Star player so far: Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has delivered big performances at key moments in the tournament. He was good against Canada and then starred against Colombia, making three saves in the game and then producing a stunning stop in the shootout from Hernández.

          Best moment so far: Vargas was a major fitness doubt for the round of 16 but made it off the bench for extra time against Colombia before producing a cool penalty to clinch the shootout and set up a meeting with world champions Argentina in Kansas City. -- Marsden

          Where this game will be won? This Argentina side is all about one man: Messi. Pretty much everything is running through him, and he's been so overwhelmingly brilliant (nine goal contributions at age 39 is frankly absurd) that Los Albiceleste's tactical shortcomings -- chaotic defending, a questionable midfield structure and barely any quality emanating from the wide areas -- have all been papered over.

          There is only one way to stop the reigning champions: stop Messi. The only teams capable of doing that will be those who are immensely strong through the center of the pitch for a full 90 minutes, and are able to either physically overwhelm him, or completely nullify the space he wants to play in. Switzerland are strong in this area; they have quality, experienced players in Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler, while center backs Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi have had good tournaments. Can they stand up to this ultimate test? If so, Switzerland may find a path to victory. -- Tighe

          Predictions

          Becherano: Argentina 2-1 Switzerland. Argentina have proven time and time again that a win doesn't have to be pretty. They are able to come from behind, and with a little bit of Messi magic, win against strong opponents.

          Carlisle: Argentina 3-2 Switzerland. Argentina have been leaking goals like mad, but seems to always be able to rise above it and score just enough to prevail.

          Connelly: Switzerland 2-1 Argentina. In five matches (plus extra time against Colombia), Switzerland have allowed three goals; if Argentina once again leave themselves needing to score late, they might find it quite a bit tougher.

          Dawson: Argentina 2-2 Switzerland (Argentina win on penalties). Argentina score and leak goals for fun so this might be the tie of the round. In the end, Argentina's quality from the spot will win it.

          Lindop: Argentina 2-1 Switzerland. Argentina haven't made it easy for themselves at this tournament and I expect another tough game, but I think Messi will once again prove to be the difference.

          Marcotti: Argentina 2-0 Switzerland. I'm going to assume that after what we saw against Egypt and Cape Verde, Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni is going to find a way to kick it up a notch. You can't ride Messi the way they have been doing and get away with it time and again.

          Olley: Argentina 1-0 Switzerland. How can you back against Messi? What he's continuing to do at this tournament almost defies description. Switzerland can make life very difficult, but Argentina will feel indestructible after that dramatic comeback against Egypt, even if it took them an eternity to get going.

          Ogden: Argentina 2-1 Switzerland. The Swiss are a tough tournament team and will frustrate Argentina, but the Messi factor will surely be enough to overcome Murat Yakin's side, especially if midfielder Johan Manzambi is unable to beat the knee injury which ruled him out against Colombia in time to play against the defending champions.

          Odds (via DraftKings, correct at time of publication)

          Argentina: -275
          Switzerland: +215