WIMBLEDON, England -- Six weeks ago, it seemed as if Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic were on a collision course to meet in the French Open final.
With two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz out due to injury, the path for Sinner and Djokovic -- conveniently placed on opposite sides of the draw -- to the men's final seemed all but certain. It was a golden opportunity for both. For Sinner, winning the title would mean the completion of the career Grand Slam and the summation of a dominant spring that saw him win five Masters 1000-level events. For Djokovic, it was the chance to secure the record with 25 major titles.
But of course, neither scenario came true.
Sinner was stunned in the second round by Juan Manuel Cerundolo in one of the most shocking upsets in recent memory, and Djokovic was defeated the following day in the third round by Joao Fonseca, putting the men's draw into absolute chaos and leaving fans to wonder what could have been.
With several weeks to recover, both physically and mentally, both men arrived at Wimbledon looking to focus on another major opportunity. As neither had played in any lead-in events on grass, it was unclear how they would perform at the All England Club -- but those doubts have since subsided and now Sinner, the defending champion, and Djokovic, a seven-time champion, are set to meet in the semifinals Friday with both clamoring to get back to the final.
Here's what you need to know ahead of their must-see semifinal showdown.
The case for Sinner
For much of the spring, Sinner was actually unbeatable. He had a 30-match win streak, which spanned both hard-court and clay events, and he was the overwhelming favorite to win the French Open.
Even against Cerundolo, it looked as if he would cruise to yet another victory. But while he later tried to downplay the effects of the blistering heat, Sinner was rendered powerless in the sun and at one point lost 18 straight points. During the break ahead of Wimbledon, Sinner said he and his team started emphasizing training in hotter conditions and working on ways to improve when the temperatures rise.
Though it hasn't been quite as hot at the All England Club, the 24-year-old Sinner has shown no signs of fatigue, nor any serious physical ailments. He struggled at times in his opening-round match against Miomir Kecmanovic and had a toenail issue that caused him to bleed through his sneaker, but ultimately found a way to win in five sets. He later explained he had felt nerves coming into, and during, the match as the defending champion.
And since then, Sinner has returned to his dominant form. He has needed multiple tiebreaks but has yet to drop another set. Shintaro Mochizuki, his third-round opponent, said Sinner's aura and the idea of playing against him on Centre Court made it challenging before the match even started.
"I thought I was losing easily before I stepped onto the court," Mochizuki said.
On Tuesday, in his quarterfinal match against Jan-Lennard Struff, temperatures were in the high 80s on the nearly-shadeless No. 1 Court, but Sinner showed few signs of discomfort from the conditions. He was efficient and swift in his takedown, needing just over 2½ hours, and relying on his serving prowess and trademark forehand.
There was a brief moment in which it looked as if Sinner might falter as he faced a set point in the second set, but he remained composed and fought back to win the game and ultimately force a tiebreak.
"I felt like I played freely and had the chances," Struff later explained. "I felt [like] there were good chances to win the set. But in the tiebreak, it's just one point I lose with a backhand in the net. He was there and didn't give me a chance to come back. That was quite tough."
After trading service games in the third set, Sinner ultimately pulled away with a break, never allowing Struff a chance to get back into it for a 7-5, 7-6 (4), 6-3 victory.
Sinner, who called the conditions "warm but nothing crazy," was pleased with how he fared.
"It was a very solid performance from my side, so I'm very happy," he said after the match.
Sinner will now have his toughest test of the tournament against Djokovic. He holds a 6-5 career head-to-head record over him and is one of just two players in history (along with Andy Roddick) to have played him five or more times and own a winning record against him. Sinner has also won five of their last six meetings, including in the Wimbledon semifinals last year.
During that match on Centre Court, Sinner easily dispatched Djokovic, 15 years his senior, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 -- leaving Djokovic to openly question whether he would be able to compete with Sinner and Alcaraz going forward at Slams.
"I guess playing best-of-five, particularly this year, has been a real struggle for me physically. The longer the tournament goes, yeah, the worse the condition gets. I reach the final stages, I reach the semis of every Slam this year, but [then] I have to play Sinner or Alcaraz. These guys are fit, young [and] sharp. I feel like I'm going into the match with tank half empty, [and] it's just not possible to win a match like that."
Before knowing whom he would be playing in the semifinals, Sinner said he knew it would be a tough battle but vowed to do what he could.
"In any case, I'm happy to be back in the semis," he said. "I'm happy to fight for every ball, then we see. More I cannot do, so ... [Djokovic] has won this tournament so many times and he knows exactly how to approach it. I'm looking forward to it."
The case for Djokovic
Though last year's loss to Sinner sparked speculation that his time in the sport was nearing its end, Djokovic told reporters at the time that he hoped to return to Wimbledon "at least one more time."
And since then, he has found a way -- at least once, anyway -- to get past his young rivals at a major. Djokovic defeated Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the Australian Open semifinals in January.
The surface is, of course, different at Wimbledon, and Djokovic pointed out that he was "fresher from several months of break and preparation" in Melbourne, but he has already proved he can defeat top players in the tightest of battles. The 39-year-old got past No. 3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in a 7-6 (10), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (4) marathon thriller that lasted 5 hours, 15 minutes -- the longest match of his career at Wimbledon. There were many tense moments -- an apparent calf injury in the first set, a controversial decision to close the roof in the second set -- but Djokovic simply never quit.
"These are the kind of moments that I still play tennis for," an elated Djokovic said on court after the match Tuesday night.
After taking a 2-1 lead in sets, Djokovic was up a break in the fourth before Auger-Aliassime fought back to force a tiebreak and then a decider. It remained unclear whether Djokovic would have enough to eke out a victory. But as the two both stayed on serve and showcased their endurance with incredible rallies, and as the crowd seemed to be holding its collective breath, it went to a 10-point tiebreak to decide it all. It was there Djokovic reminded everyone to never count him out.
"I've watched plenty of Novak over the years," Auger-Aliassime, 25, said later. "I've analyzed a lot of his matches, whether it's here, other Grand Slams. Even at times when he wasn't playing his best, beating Roger [Federer] here [in] 2019. You just feel like in tiebreaks or tight moments, either he serves well or he makes you play the extra shot. Just keeps you in a position where you can't attack him, but he neutralizes you until he waits for a mistake."
Sinner has yet to face a seeded opponent, but Djokovic has now faced two -- he played No. 25 Arthur Rinderknech in the third round and two-time major finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round.
Djokovic is a +325 underdog against Sinner, which are the longest odds Djokovic has had at Wimbledon since 2006. But with two full days between the quarterfinal and the semifinal, Djokovic was hopeful when speaking to reporters.
"It's a bit different now [compared to Australia]," Djokovic said. "But nevertheless, another great, historic run for me at the Grand Slams. This is what counts the most, honestly. I still try to prove to myself and others that I'm able to compete with the best players in the world and beat them in the biggest stage. That's what I've done in Australia. It's what I've done here.
"Hopefully, I can do it [a] few more matches here in London."
So, who's going to win?
Logically speaking, Sinner has the edge entering the match. Already with the advantage of youth, he will have had more time to recover and only his first-round match extended over the three-hour mark. And because Djokovic spoiled his three-peat mission at the Australian Open, Sinner will have even more motivation.
Also, of course, Sinner knows how to beat Djokovic. (See: Five of their past six meetings and last year's Wimbledon result.)
But Djokovic, who called his quarterfinal victory "one of the best matches" he had ever played at Wimbledon, was clearly reenergized Tuesday night and buoyed by his ability to fight for so long against a much-younger peer. He has also shown he can still beat Sinner at a major when the stakes are high.
With temperatures expected to be around 90 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday, that could prove to be especially favorable for Djokovic. Though Sinner has said he has worked hard to improve in the heat, he has yet to face a top-level opponent in such conditions this tournament. In a match that could come down to the smallest of factors in the key moments, that could be the difference.
Djokovic knows he doesn't have too many more opportunities for 25 -- and he will do everything he can to not let this one slip away at his favorite tournament. Will it be enough? Let's see.