The US Open begins Sunday, and with it come many intriguing storylines. Carlos Alcaraz missed the last two majors due to a wrist injury but will return in New York -- and is the defending champion. With biggest rival Jannik Sinner out, will Alcaraz be the one to beat?
On the women's side, two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka has had a rough hard-court season and will lose her No. 1 ranking unless she wins a third US Open title. Can she do it?
Who will surprise in the next two weeks? Whom should we watch?
Our experts weigh in on these pressing questions and more.
What do you expect from Alcaraz this tournament?
D'Arcy Maine: It's tough to say. Having played zero singles matches since April and no best-of-five-sets matches since January, it feels like a tall order for him to return at the US Open completely untested and defend his title. He opted to skip any of the lead-in events out of an abundance of caution, but that decision leaves so many questions. How will his health fare if he plays seven matches in two weeks? Is he mentally and physically ready to play five-setters after such a long layoff? We just don't know.
He did play alongside Serena Williams in the mixed doubles event this week, and the pair advanced to the quarterfinals, but it's hard to read too much into that. If anyone can overcome such a long absence and win the title it's Alcaraz, but it hardly feels like a guarantee at the moment.
Bill Connelly: The idea of first testing your wrist out in a grueling best-of-five format in New York heat and humidity is a little bit scary. It wouldn't be a surprise if he just couldn't find his fastball yet and was forced to find his form in the fall Asian swing. But his draw is friendly -- he wouldn't play a top-20 opponent until the fourth round (likely either Alexander Bublik or Tommy Paul, against whom he's a combined 7-2), and if he can make it that far, he might be in position to find fifth gear. Rust and proof of concept are working against him, but he's still Carlos Alcaraz, and we know he has a run in him if he can get out of the gate clean.
Aishwarya Kumar: During the first mixed doubles match with Williams, Alcaraz just wouldn't rip a forehand in the way he's used to. He looked tentative. That to me is an indication that he either is not mentally ready to go there or is physically still finding his pace, his momentum, his strength. That's not a great sign the week before he has to defend his US Open title.
That said, Alcaraz is the kind of player who wouldn't be in New York if he weren't fully healed and ready to give it his all. So, I can imagine a situation where he finds his rhythm in the first few rounds -- the draw is very much in his favor here -- and then finds momentum leading into the fourth round, which should be his first real test.
Simon Cambers: Honestly, not that much. Wrist injuries are a nightmare -- the perceived wisdom is that it usually takes as long as you are out to get back to your best -- in which case Alcaraz is severely underdone coming here. The idea that his wrist will be good enough to play and win seven best-of-five matches seems unlikely, to say the least. This is Alcaraz we're talking about, though, and he's capable of great things, even without matches under his belt and the confidence that hours of competition bring. He looked decent in the mixed doubles but not amazing. If he makes it to the second week and doesn't have a setback, that'll be a good result.
Sabalenka will have to win the US Open title to retain her No. 1 ranking. Who do you think will come out of this tournament as the women's No. 1?
Maine: As Sabalenka hasn't quite looked herself in recent months, the only thing I feel completely certain about is that she won't hold the top spot at tournament's end. She would need to win her third consecutive US Open title, and I just don't see that happening right now. She has looked too vulnerable of late and has lost to several surprising opponents.
Elena Rybakina is in the most control of her own top-ranked destiny here and would overtake the No. 1 spot by reaching the semis -- no matter how anyone else fared. But, after she sustained an injury at the Cincinnati Open, it remains to be seen if she will be able to play. She was on site and practicing Thursday, but her status remains in doubt. Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula also could take over No. 1 by winning the tournament plus a Rybakina loss before the semifinals. As Gauff is my pick to win it all, I think the chips might just fall her way and she has a legitimate chance to leave New York with some new hardware -- and a new line for her résumé.
Connelly: I'm going to stick with Sabalenka because she's the two-time defending US Open champ and I think she's still the favorite. But there's no question that her recent form has been startling and lackluster. She has made one semifinal and no finals in her last seven tournaments! Sabalenka! Neither her first-serve nor her return stats have been anywhere close to her best, and while there's nothing specifically wrong with her game, she doesn't look like she's having any fun whatsoever. Maybe that changes now that she's back in her happy place.
If Sabalenka can't snap out of her funk, though, I say Gauff makes a run. Rybakina's draw is brutal, and Gauff just looked unbelievable in Cincinnati.
Kumar: Sabalenka is not going to be world No. 1 at the end of this tournament. But I also don't think Rybakina is going to take it from her, considering the injury that forced her to pull out of Cincinnati. I'm in agreement with the rest here. Gauff might add more than the US Open title to her name come Sept. 12.
Cambers: Rybakina can be No. 1 without even playing, which is just as well for her as her ankle is giving her issues. If somehow she makes the semis, then No. 1 is definitively hers. I don't see that happening, so there's a window for others, but they need to win the title. Of those three, Gauff looks the most likely, so I'd make it a 50-50 shootout between Rybakina and Gauff, but since I know you want me to pick one, I'll say Rybakina.
Who could surprise in the next two weeks?
Maine: Would Iga Swiatek count as a surprise? It feels strange to say about a six-time major champion, but she hasn't exactly been much of a Slam title threat this year. Until now, that is. After a challenging season, she has finally seemed to rediscover her game and confidence at perhaps exactly the right time with her first title of 2026 at the Canadian Open and a semifinal run at the Cincinnati Open. Without the same level of attention as her peers who are vying for No. 1, Swiatek, the No. 8 seed, could go slightly under the radar and make a deep run.
On the men's side, keep an eye on Brandon Nakashima. Like several of the American men, he's having a phenomenal summer, and he reached the final in Montreal and the semifinals in Cincinnati behind multiple top-20 wins, including over Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Jodar. With momentum on his side, a career-high ranking of No. 17 and a winnable path to the second week, he could be one of several countrymen to excite the home crowd as the tournament goes on.
Connelly: Agreed on Swiatek. She rolled through a loaded Toronto field and has lost only to a torrid Pegula since Wimbledon. This fortnight has the potential for one of those "Swiatek rolls through seven matches without dropping a set, and we wonder why we ever doubted her" spans that we know she's capable of.
Going further down the rankings, however, be on the lookout for Sara Bejlek, the No. 28 seed. She went 6-2 in Toronto and Cincinnati, beating Sabalenka, Madison Keys and Ekaterina Alexandrova and losing only to Gauff and Swiatek. The 20-year-old might have to face Gauff in the third round, so maybe it's too early to predict a dark horse run, but she has a fun game and a particularly spicy return. One to watch.
Kumar: I am on the Alex Eala train. She has just cracked the top 20. Her forehand is punishing. Her two-handed backhand is lethal. She's figuring out her one weakness -- her serve -- fast. She will not face a seeded opponent until her third round. She's no stranger to beating top-10 opponents, having done that nine times this past year. She has the ability to go really deep in this tournament. And the Filipino fans will be there for the entire ride.
I'm also so excited for Nakashima. What a summer he's having! Finals in Canada, semifinals in D.C. and Cincinnati. He's so fun to watch too. His path looks a little dicey: He will potentially face Andrey Rublev or Marin Cilic in the round of 32, and then Novak Djokovic, Medvedev and Alcaraz. But, he has the potential to beat them all given each of their circumstances.
Cambers: It seems a bit odd to say this of a four-time Grand Slam champion, but Naomi Osaka has a chance to make a big run -- at a tournament she loves. Osaka looked great at Wimbledon before losing to Karolina Muchova. On hard courts, she is much more comfortable and has been steadily improving throughout the year. She's in the same quarter of the draw, so this might negate my selection for the champion, but Osaka is capable of great things. If she can string a few of them together, she can spring a shock.
Which American player are you most excited to watch?
Maine: Just one? This might be the best the American contingent -- women's and men's players -- has looked collectively in some time with so many players in the mix. Gauff, Pegula, Ben Shelton, Fritz and Frances Tiafoe might be the obvious choices -- and all have legitimate chances to win -- but I'm equally excited about some of the young up-and-comers who have the chance to enamor themselves to the American crowd for the first time.
Since the 2025 US Open, Iva Jovic, 18, and Learner Tien, 20, have both reached a major quarterfinal for the first time, as well as won their first tour-level title and made sizable gains in the rankings. With impressive games, and endearing personalities to match, both have the chance to become mainstream stars behind a few wins. They could be fun to watch and great stories.
Connelly: Tien has a massive opportunity here. His two best Grand Slam runs to date have come on hard courts at the Australian Open, and he landed in maybe the weakest quarter of the draw (Felix Auger-Aliassime's). Tien is still pretty inconsistent, and he'll uncork a disappointing performance occasionally -- he lost to Adrian Mannarino in Washington, D.C., after all -- but despite the hiccups, he has the game and the draw to make noise. He'll regret it if he doesn't take advantage of the opportunity.
On the women's side, Venus Williams against Sofia Kenin should be a delightful first-round match -- Kenin is such a first-strike, all-or-nothing presence that she can roll or get rolled in any match -- but in terms of real contenders, I'm fascinated by Amanda Anisimova at the moment. The defending US Open runner-up battled both injuries and herself all season, but her Cincinnati run was super encouraging, and we know how good she can be when she's moving well and crushing that backhand. She's in Gauff's quarter, but she can beat anyone at any time.
Kumar: This is a hard question! Americans are doing so well right now. Nakashima is having the best summer of all. Shelton with his back-to-back Canada Open title. Gauff finding her form after a rocky start to the season. Anisimova's fabulous return to tennis. I'm here for it all!
Cambers: I agree with Bill here. For all the fuss over Shelton and the experience of Fritz and Tiafoe, Tien has perhaps more upside than anyone. He's such a talented player and is at his best on hard courts. He's in a decent section of the draw, too. In the women's event, I would be not surprised to see Anisimova have a big two weeks. It has taken her time to recover top form after a wrist issue, but she looked strong in Cincinnati and, as a finalist here last year, she knows how to get it done.
What has to happen for Djokovic to win a record-breaking 25th major title?
Maine: Well, first of all, he would have to win seven matches. And while I'm being slightly snarky by saying that, that's an incredibly tough challenge for anyone, but especially someone who is 39 years old, has had up-and-down results in best-of-five matches recently (see: his French Open third-round loss to Joao Fonseca) and hasn't won a match since Wimbledon.
He has a decent draw, with a compelling but favorable matchup against Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka in the second round and Nakashima or Rublev potentially awaiting in the fourth round, but things would likely get harder from there. Medvedev or Tiafoe could await in the quarters, and Alcaraz or Shelton would likely then be standing in the way of the final. And then, not to mention, Alexander Zverev, Fritz or someone like Flavio Cobolli would be waiting with a trophy on the line. Can he do it? Sure. But everything will have to go his way -- and perhaps some bad luck for the rest of the top contenders -- to achieve No. 25.
Connelly: I'm picking him to win the tournament, basically because if it happens it would be awesome to have called it, and we've certainly seen him grind his way through struggles before. His draw is helpful, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if he played his way into form yet again. He has made a semifinal and a final in Slams this very year.
Still, his loss to Thiago Agustin Tirante in Cincinnati was pretty jarring. He appeared to basically run out of gas in the second set, and after the match he talked about "many health problems," especially in heat and humidity. If heat and humidity are problematic, good luck in Queens in August. It's fun to believe he can rally himself and make another charge, but it gets a little harder to pull that off with each passing Slam.
Kumar: A miracle? I'm sincerely not sure why he's still playing. Twenty-four titles is more than enough. It's more than anyone else has ever been able to accomplish in all of tennis. His body is just not able to sustain the grind of a Grand Slam. I saw that at Wimbledon when he beat Auger-Aliassime in a grueling five-setter in Wimbledon and he just didn't have time to recover for his semifinal against Sinner. Then he took weeks off before showing up to Cincinnati and throwing up all over the court in his second round loss to Tirante. I'm certain he does not have what it takes to win another Grand Slam.
Cambers: I feel like Djokovic is capable of anything, but at 39, it stands to reason that he needs the dice to fall his way. In Australia this year, a couple of injuries and withdrawals aided his cause, allowing him the time to recover that he now needs. It goes without saying that he needs as easy a first week as he can get to save energy, but with no Sinner to worry about and Alcaraz only just recovering from his wrist problem, Djokovic will feel he can do this. But it won't be easy, with Zverev confident and a string of Americans pushing hard. A 25th Slam would be an incredible achievement, and to do it at 39 would be all that and more.