Create birdie opportunities with the driver, then convert them with the putter. That'll be the primary scoring separator this week at The Renaissance Club in the Genesis Scottish Open.
Typically I look at approach play first but for this course, the common thread amongst contenders is gaining strokes off the tee. Putting could be the defining feature, too, determining who can turn 18-25 footers into birdies.
So for this week, I'm looking at aggressive driving, and predicting who can capitalize once they're on the green. As far as weather, there's some breeze every day but nothing like sustained 20-30 mph winds that could fundamentally change the course.
Basically, don't expect brutal links weather. Which means this could be another 2024 birdie week, pushing to at least -18 under.
Odds by DK Sports
(with ties) and subject to change.
Best bets
Top 5 +108
To win +490
Scheffler is (still) the standard. He fits because this course rewards players who separate before they even reach the green. Renaissance elevates elite ball strikers and nobody enters with a better combo of driving, approach play and birdie creation. He's already shown he can contend here despite losing strokes with the putter. So now imagine if the putter cooperates? Scheffler has gained strokes putting in four straight events. But if he's merely neutral instead of a liability, Scheffler is the most likely to create that separation.
Top 20 -120
Top 10 +175
Top 5 +355
To win +2000
Fleetwood's game is balanced. I'll take that over having one or two dominant skills. His Scottish Open history is outstanding, with three top-10s since 2020. He's driving it well, putting better than normal -- which helps because he's lost strokes putting in Renaissance in back-to-back years -- and has become one of the stronger birdie-makers in the field. His recent iron play hasn't matched the level of other elite contenders but if there were a course where irons are less predictive, it's here.
Top 20 -112
Top 10 +175
Top 5 +355
To win +2000
You almost need to ignore that Aberg is 45th in Round 4 scoring because part of that could be mental. He has two wins on tour. The ability to close is there. This setup feels like it's built for Aberg. Length plus efficiency off the tee gives him shorter clubs in the greens. He's top 25 off the tee and approach, seventh in birdie or better, sixth in strokes gained total, solid production all around where birdies determine the winner. Plus, he has two excellent finishes here already, back-to-back top 10 finishes. I'm weighing familiarity rather than course results but if you have both familiarity and results, even better. The putter has been cold recently but that Renaissance familiarity may be exactly what he needs to find his groove again on the greens.
Other bets and DFS advice
Full tournament head-to-head: Rory McIlroy -165 vs. Xander Schauffele
Let's talk about it. I like the matchup. McIlroy has the higher ceiling, driven by stronger off-the-tee play, approach play and overall ball striking -- the exact areas that can separate you from the field on this course. Plus, he has already converted one win in his last five starts and finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five events. Schauffele has been solid but he's been good -- not great -- as of late. The case for Schauffele is consistency. The case against McIlroy is price. I still make McIlroy the likely winner of this matchup but not by enough to justify laying that price. If this were -150, I would consider it but at -165 it's a pass.
Play: Doug Ghim, $7,400
I love the driving; he's fifth off the tee. The concern is everything after that. The putting remains mediocre but the driver could be enough of a weapon because it's one of the biggest advantages you have at this course. If he can turn good ball striking into enough birdies, or if the putter gives him something for once, he can outperform expectations.
Play: Eugenio Chacarra, $7,600
This could be a dart if you're just looking to fill your roster with a lower-priced volatile player. His recent results on the Euro Tour deserve more respect than they'll probably receive. He has two wins over his last five starts, which weren't fueled by unsustainable putting but by dominant tee-to-green weeks, particularly with the driver and irons. The caveat is that we haven't seen him reproduce that level against a field this deep, and his lone appearance here ended with a missed cut. If he adapts to the course, he has a legit top 20 or better upside.
Fade: Bernd Wiesberger, $6,800
Wiesberger won this event in 2019 and has a win on the Euro Tour this season. The course history grabs my attention but almost everything else points in the opposite direction. His current form just hasn't shown enough firepower to keep pace if this turns into another tournament where players are pushing 15 to 18 under. You need a strong driver, and his has been a bit too inconsistent as of late to consider him a top contender to repeat.