Taking a weekly look at Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy's fantasy output in his last game and outlook for Sunday:
Week 13 statistics: 15 rushes, 93 yards; 2 catches, 9 yards.
Week 13 fantasy output (ESPN PPR scoring): 12.2 points (88th overall, 25th among running backs)
Week 13 fantasy output (ESPN standard scoring): 10.2 points (79th overall, 24th among running backs)
What happened vs. New England Patriots: From a real-world football standpoint, McCoy had one of his stronger games of the season. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry, his second-best game of the season behind an 8.7-yard average in Week 11 against the Chargers. McCoy failed to surpass 100 rushing yards for the ninth time this season but that was more a product of his rushing volume in a game in which the Bills never led.
Yet from a fantasy perspective, McCoy continued to struggle. After posting only 11.9 points (PPR scoring) and 7.9 points (standard scoring) in a Week 12 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, McCoy barely surpassed that output Sunday despite nearly doubling his rushing yards from the 49 he gained at Arrowhead Stadium. McCoy did not score a touchdown for the ninth time this season and the fourth time in his past five games. He was targeted five times in the passing game, tied for the most over his past five games, but he caught only two of those targets.
In PPR scoring, four of McCoy's worst five games of the season have come within the past five weeks because of his lack of touchdowns and production in the passing game. The revolving door at quarterback has not helped McCoy's cause, and it is harder to score touchdowns when the Bills' offense has ranked fourth-to-last in the NFL in average offensive drive distance (24.2 yards) over its past five games.
What to expect Sunday vs. Indianapolis Colts: The good news for McCoy is that three of Buffalo's final four games come against bottom-tier defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Colts allow the seventh-most PPR points to running backs per game and the Dolphins, who play the Bills in Weeks 15 and 17, allow the eighth-most. The Patriots, who host the Bills in Week 16, have also shown some vulnerability in that area, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
While McCoy's schedule during the fantasy playoffs is favorable, his up-and-down season presents some degree of risk, as does the Bills' unpredictable quarterback situation. Since Week 9, when Buffalo began a three-game losing streak, its offense has the sixth-highest percentage of three-and-out drives in the NFL. Over that time they have averaged 61.6 offensive plays per game, 11th-fewest in the NFL.
Not only has the Bills' offense struggled to stay on the field, but McCoy has seen a downtick in usage in recent weeks. He surpassed 70 percent of offensive snaps in seven of the Bills' first eight games but has failed to reach the mark in each of their past four games. Some of that can attributed to the emergence of Travaris Cadet, who has proven more effective than Mike Tolbert in the No. 2 running back role.
Colts' fantasy points per game allowed to running backs this season (PPR scoring): 24.9 (seventh-most in NFL)
Colts' fantasy points per game allowed to running backs this season (standard scoring): 20.2 (fifth-most in NFL)