With 20 players set to be restricted or unrestricted free agents, the Dallas Cowboys will have plenty of decisions to make on who to keep and who to let go.
Let’s take a look at the free agents to be and how they could fit into the Cowboys’ future:
Running back DeMarco Murray
Type: Unrestricted
What he did: He set the team record for yards in a season with 1,845, which also led the league. He also led the NFL in carries with 392. He scored 13 rushing touchdowns. He opened the year with eight straight 100-yard games, which is an NFL record, and he had 12 100-yard games for the season, which was a team record. His start to the season was so incredible it was almost impossible to keep up that level of play for a 16-game season. He also caught a career-high 57 passes for 416 yards. For the first time in his career he played in every game, playing through a surgically repaired left hand. Jason Garrett said Murray became the heartbeat of the team.
What he could do: There is a ton of analysis on what running backs haven’t done after similar seasons to Murray’s, but expecting him to continue to rush for 1,845 yards is folly. It’s something that has been done once in franchise history and that franchise has two Hall of Fame runners in Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett. A drop-off should be viewed as natural. But Murray ran for 1,121 yards in 14 games in 2013. Expecting 392 carries is also folly. If the Cowboys re-sign him, then they would have to manage him differently than they did in 2014. But there is no reason to think he can’t be a 300-carry, 1,300-yard rusher for the next three years. He has a young and talented offensive line. He has weapons in the passing game that will make it difficult for teams to always stack the box.
What it should cost: This is a trick question in a part because nobody really knows. Teams have devalued runners in recent years, but a back of Murray’s talent has not hit the open market recently. The draft class is strong too, so teams might be more willing to go after a younger runner with less mileage than Murray. There is no doubt a runner’s production dips as he closes in on 30. Murray just turned 27. Regardless of the length of deal Murray receives from the Cowboys or another team, the most important numbers will be the first three years of the deal. The final two or three years will simply be window dressing in a bid to keep the cap figures lower than expected the first three years. If you want to call it a six-year deal or a five-year deal or a seven-year deal, it doesn’t matter. In the first three years, Murray could be in the neighborhood of $20 million to $21 million in terms of guaranteed money. Of course, it could be higher than that if one team believes Murray is the final piece. If the price gets too high, the Cowboys will walk away and find a cheaper replacement (or replacements).
The series: Click here for more posts from this series.