FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots and restricted free-agent receiver Chris Hogan (Bills) have agreed to a three-year, $12 million offer sheet that includes a $5.5 million cap charge in the first year, which increases the likelihood that Hogan will be playing in New England in 2016.

Some thoughts:

Trickle-down effect for Amendola? If the Bills don't match the offer sheet (it seems unlikely that they will), it could affect receiver Danny Amendola's place on the roster at his present salary. Amendola is due $5 million in base salary and will count $6.8 million on the salary cap. Would the Patriots plan to keep Amendola, Hogan and Julian Edelman ($4.4 million cap hit) at receiver? At this time, we're analyzing the Hogan signing as a singular entity, but how it potentially affects Amendola is a big part of the final analysis.

Could see this one coming: On March 2, Hogan was identified in this space as an "under-the-radar" free-agent target for the Patriots. What stood out is that he's a good route runner with inside-outside flexibility who has shown the ability to separate from defenders. He adds special-teams value as well. Those are things the Patriots generally value in their receivers, so depending on how the market unfolded, the idea of the Patriots pursuing Hogan made a lot of sense.

Don't pigeonhole him: There might be a temptation to view Hogan as a slot receiver in the mold of Amendola or even Edelman, but that's not entirely accurate. Though he aligns in the slot, and has quickness and solid footwork to separate on the inside part of the field, he also aligns on the outside and has made plays down the field. Hogan is 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, which is a different physical makeup compared to Edelman (5-10, 200) and Amendola (5-11, 190). He is a physical receiver.

Though a good fit, Hogan was not necessarily the first option: Hogan has a lot of attributes that the Patriots generally look for in a receiver, and though the offer sheet might be viewed as a predictable outcome, it doesn't necessarily mean it was the team's Plan A. The Patriots were in the mix for former Cincinnati Bengals receivers Marvin Jones (Lions) and Mohamed Sanu (Falcons), and had one of those players signed in New England, it could have affected the team's plans with Hogan. Jones received an average annual salary of $8 million per year in Detroit, and Sanu is expected to come in at about $6 million in Atlanta. So the Patriots wound up with the lower-priced option, at $4 million per season, as there are always a lot of moving parts in free agency.

Projection with Brady: Hogan totaled 77 receptions the past two seasons with quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and EJ Manuel throwing to him, so one line of thinking is that there is potential for a major spike in production if he shares a huddle with Tom Brady. The classic example of that was Wes Welker joining the Patriots in 2007. But there is also one recent similar example where things turned in the other direction, with Scott Chandler; the former Bills tight end caught 100 passes in 2013-2014 before coming to New England, and he never truly emerged (23 receptions) in 2015. It's a reminder that the signing of Hogan remains a projection.

Played well against the Patriots: Another similarity to Welker of 2007 is that Hogan has had some of his best games against New England (details here).

Players' Tribune piece: A good snapshot of what Hogan is all about, from a first-person account on The Players' Tribune website.