All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Wednesday's top batter prop bets
Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+511)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Ward's 13.8 Barrel% -- a reliable stat for measuring power -- places him in the 88th percentile among his peers.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 RBI (+235)
Projection: 34% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.94 EV
One reason to bet this: My projected expected batting average of .274 for Rooker indicates that he has had some poor luck since the start of last season, given his .260 actual batting average over that time.
Elly De La Cruz | OVER 0.5 RBI (+252)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.79 EV
One reason to bet this: De La Cruz has a 90th-percentile opposite-field rate on his fly balls (35.6%), plus the good fortune of hitting them toward MLB's seventh-shallowest LF fences today.
Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets
Paul Skenes | UNDER 7.5 K (-131)
Projection: 94% chance of this bet hitting, with a $86.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Seeing how quickly Skenes got the hook in his first start, we're not sure he will last long enough to hit this prop, should things start to go wrong at some point during his second outing.
Matthew Boyd | UNDER 1.5 ER (-113)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.63 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind is forecast to be blowing in from center at 15.2 mph in this contest, the best of the day for mound aces.
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 1.5 ER (-119)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez and his 55.3 underlying GB% (according to my projections) will be in a favorable position in today's game, given the makeup of the expected opposing lineup.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline:
The Dodgers have won this bet in 16 of their last 20 games. (+9.05 Units / 29% ROI). Current odds: -271
St. Louis Cardinals 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Cardinals have been under on this bet in 11 of their last 15 home contests. (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -115
Chicago Cubs Moneyline:
The Cubs have covered this bet in eight of their last 10 home games. (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI). Current odds: -171