All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Sunday's top batter prop bets
Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 HR (+660)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $36.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past seven days, Murakami's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 100.2 mph over the course of the season to 102.3 mph recently.
James Wood | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.31 EV
One reason to bet this: The eighth-shallowest center field fences in MLB are found in American Family Field.
Luis Torrens | UNDER 0.5 H (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.24 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Torrens ranks in just the fifth percentile with a 6.5-degree launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in the game.
Sunday's top pitcher prop bets
Nick Pivetta | OVER 7.5 K (+113)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.10 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 5 venue in baseball for boosting strikeouts, via my projections, is Petco Park.
Andrew Painter | UNDER 2.5 ER (-149)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.24 EV
One reason to bet this: This contest is predicted to have the second-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Chris Sale | OVER 6.5 K (-146)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9 mph in this matchup, the second-most-favorable of the day for hurlers.
The BAT X: Team Projections
Top Betting Trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
New York Yankees 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Under:
The Yankees have gone under their first-five innings team total in five straight games. (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +110
Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
The Diamondbacks have gone over their first-five innings team total in 12 of their last 15 road games. (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -145
Milwaukee Brewers Run Line:
The Brewers have covered the run line in 13 of their last 20 home games. (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +100
Detroit Tigers Run Line:
The Tiges have covered the run line in four of their last five home games. (+4.60 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +113
Houston Astros 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
The Astros have gone over the first-five innings team total in 14 of their last 20 games. (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +110