MLB betting tips for Sunday: Back Goldschmidt, Grisham for hitters

Paul Goldschmidt is in a good spot to go over on homers. Sarah Stier/Getty Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Sunday's top batter prop bets

Alex Bregman | OVER 0.5 HR (+950)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.36 EV

Paul Goldschmidt | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.45 EV

Austin Wells | OVER 0.5 RBI (+334)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.66 EV

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 RBI (+283)
Projection: 31% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.93 EV

Sam Haggerty | UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI (+128)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.84 EV

Sunday's top pitcher prop bets

Framber Valdez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-101)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $30.59 EV

Brady Singer | OVER 4.5 K (+103)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.64 EV

Shota Imanaga | UNDER 1.5 ER (+125)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.67 EV

Michael King | OVER 1.5 ER (-142)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.20 EV

MacKenzie Gore | OVER 5.5 K (-149)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.36 EV

The BAT X: Team projections