The 2026 Home Run Derby will feature a mix of familiar names and new faces.
Tampa Bay Rays phenom Junior Caminero was the first player to commit to this year's event, which will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday night. He was initially joined by New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice, Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone, Boston Red Sox All-Star Willson Contreras and St. Louis Cardinals breakout star Jordan Walker.
After that, it was a pair of hometown stars in Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber's to join the fray. Finally, Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami came off the IL and joined the field.
Like last year, the bracket format has been scrapped in favor of three rounds: First round, semifinals and finals. However, rounds will no longer be timed. In the first round, each player gets 20 swings. In the semifinals and finals, each player gets 15 swings. Any player who homers on his final swing of a round can keep batting until he fails to homer.
The players with the top four home run totals from the first round will advance to the semifinals, where they'll be seeded based on their first-round homer totals. They will face off head-to-head (No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3) to determine the two finalists. First-round ties will be settled with the player who hit the longest homer advancing. In the semifinals and finals, ties will be broken by a series of three-pitch "swing-offs" until we have a winner.
Got it? Let's break down the field.
Home Run Derby: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Monday, 8 p.m. ET)
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Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (+425)
HRs: 26 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: Is there anyone hotter in baseball than the Rays slugger right now? The reigning AL Player of the Week (and Month) has turned the past couple of weeks into his own personal home run derby, including a streak of six straight games with a long ball. If swinging a hot bat isn't reason enough, Caminero owns the fastest average bat speed in the majors (80.0 mph) and also finished second in the event last year, so we already know his powerful bat translates to the Derby stage.
Why he might not: Youth? Despite that runner-up finish as a 22-year-old last summer, no player as young as Caminero is now has ever won the Derby. In fact, if Caminero is the last slugger standing in Philly, he would be 257 days younger than a 23-year-old Juan Gonzalez in 1993.
My prediction: Caminero has the fastest bat in the majors and will be determined to win after finishing as the runner-up last year. His natural swing is a little flat at times, but he showed last year that he'll have no trouble elevating the ball in a batting practice session like the Home Run Derby. He'd be my pick to win ... except Citizens Bank Park is a friendlier park to left-handed hitters, with a HR factor of 132 for lefty hitters versus 100 for righty hitters. Maybe it won't matter, but I'm picking a lefty hitter to win.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees (+850)
HRs: 25 | Longest: 433 feet
Why he could win: Rice has been one of the true breakout power stars of the past year-plus, belting 51 home runs since the start of the 2025 season and nearly matching his career high set last season in just 315 at-bats this season. His average exit velocity (91.8 mph) is in the 87th percentile and his barrel rate (14.7%) is in the 89th, so Rice is capable of hitting the ball hard and doing so often -- a great recipe for Derby success. As for any fear of this being his first Home Run Derby being a negative? The past two Derby champions -- Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez -- were competing in the event for the first time.
Why he might not: Despite his breakout production, Rice still has some swing-and-miss issues in his game. He has struck out 86 times in 85 games this season and has a 24.9% whiff rate. Winning the Home Run Derby is about stringing together multiple rounds of consistent home runs, and getting out of a rhythm can spell doom for any slugger.
My prediction: My feeling is that the guys with the fast bats do better in this contest and Rice's bat speed is only barely above league average. No doubt, his swing his geared perfectly for lofting fly balls into the right field bleachers, but only two of his home runs this season have gone 425-plus feet, so I'm not sure the raw power plus bat speed matches some of the other guys here. I have him going out in the first round.
Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals (+700)
HRs: 14 | Longest: 444 feet
Why he could win: In his short time in the majors, Caglianone already ranks among MLB's elite when it comes to hitting the ball hard. He's in the top 12 in average exit velo, max exit velo, 95th percentile exit velo and hard-hit percentage. He's also in the midst of putting those metrics together during the best stretch of his career, mashing nine home runs in June.
Why he might not: Despite his recent surge, Caglianone has struggled at times during his MLB career -- especially when it comes to making consistent contact. Unlike his standout exit velo metrics, he ranks in only the 20th percentile of hitters in squared-up percentage, 16th percentile in chase rate, 14th in whiff% and 11th in K%. All of this could add up to a very hit-or-miss Derby.
My prediction: Ahh, this should be fun. My gut says to go with Caglianone, given my previous parameters of choosing a left-handed hitter -- except, well, it's hard to bet against one of the two hometown favorites. Caglianone's raw power is legendary, going back to his days at the University of Florida. While he's still learning to the get ball in the air more often in game action, that shouldn't be a factor in the Derby. His dad will be pitching to him and while we've seen players struggle in the past doing this if dad can't throw enough strikes, we've also seen it work -- like last year with Derby champ Raleigh.
Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox (14-1)
HRs: 20 | Longest: 449 feet
Why he could win: Contreras' production has been one of the biggest bright spots in a rough season for the Red Sox. At age 34, he is having his best power season -- his 20 home runs in 87 games matches his season total from last year and is just four behind his career high. Plus, his Statcast data supports the late-career spike, as his .513 xSLG ranks in the top 8% of MLB hitters and his 114.4 max exit velo in the top 6%. And before you chalk it up to playing in Fenway Park in his first season with the Red Sox: Contreras at home this season? Ten home runs. Contreras on the road this season? Ten home runs.
Why he might not: Citizens Bank Park has a reputation for being friendly for left-handed hitters, and Contreras is a right-handed pull hitter. In fact, just one of his 20 home runs this season has been to anywhere other than left field -- and that was a 411-foot shot to center. Combine that with Contreras' age and it could be an uphill fight for the Boston slugger.
My prediction: Contreras has a better chance than you might think, given his combination of bat speed (96th percentile) and launch angle (he's increased his average launch angle to an ideal 17 degrees this season, which is why he's already closing in on his career high in home runs). His exit velocities don't quite match some of the others in the field, however, and at 34, he would match David Ortiz as the oldest to win the Derby, so that's a big strike against picking him.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (+310)
HRs: 32 | Longest: 460 feet
Why he could win: These write-ups have spotlighted statistics, metrics and ballpark-specific advantages for most of the field, but that doesn't really seem necessary for Schwarber. His 32 homers lead the league, but even that is underselling Schwarber as a power hitter. He belted 56 last season and is on pace to match that number again. Plus, his overall power exploits are legendary, like last year's All-Star Game-winning swing-off home run, or his four-HR game last summer, or any of his many postseason blasts. Add in that the Derby is in his home ballpark and everyone else might be chasing Schwarber on Monday night.
Why he might not: Schwarber has been dealing with lower back tightness that had him in and out of the Phillies lineup as recently as a couple of weeks ago. That isn't the sort of thing you want popping up during the max effort swings of a Derby, so if anything is going to keep Schwarber from lasting deep into this year's event, that seems most likely.
My prediction: Schwarber looms as the favorite, given his status as MLB's HR leader, the hometown energy, and the prodigious blasts that he hits in both BP and game action. We should note that Schwarber and Harper faced off in the finals in 2018, when Harper was with the Nationals and Schwarber was with the Cubs. Harper staged a dramatic comeback late in his round, tying Schwarber as time expired and then winning in extra time. This year? Schwarber holds him off and wins his first Home Run Derby.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+700)
HRs: 20 | Longest: 457 feet
Why he could win: Are you going to doubt Harper? In his own ballpark? Need we remind you of what he did in 2018, when he won the Derby in his home ballpark during his final year with the Nationals? Not only that, but Harper has regained his power stroke in 2026, already closing in on last season's home run total (27) and raising his slugging percentage over .500 once again. One thing is for sure -- if Harper gets hot in the Derby, the Bank is going to be rocking.
Why he might not: Harper is 33 years old, and some of his underlying power metrics are a tick behind others in this field. He's still an elite hitter, don't get us wrong, but his exit velo (66th percentile), barrel% (78th percentile) and hard-hit% are more good than great at this point of his career.
My prediction: With Schwarber and Harper both participating, Phillies fans will at least be guaranteed a great show. Harper has competed in two previous Derbies, although this will be his first with the Phillies. He won in 2018 in front of the home fans in D.C. and finished second to Yoenis Cespedes in 2013. Can he win again? He certainly has had a flair for dramatic during his career, but I'm going with Schwarber.
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (+800)
HRs: 21 | Longest: 459 feet
Why he could win: One of the true breakout stars of the 2026 MLB season, Walker is built to withstand the rigors of the Derby -- literally. He stands 6-foot-6 and is listed at 250 pounds and has finally put it all together this year, already besting his career high in home runs (and nearly every other offensive category). His Baseball Savant page is also filled with red in bat speed (100th percentile), exit velo (98th percentile) and hard-hit% (93rd percentile).
Why he might not: Like some of the other young sluggers in this field, swing-and-miss is Walker's biggest weakness. His Baseball Savant page turns blue quickly when you get to the contact categories: 17th percentile in whiff%, 21st percentile in chase% and 28th in K%. Yet another player who could boom -- or bust -- in Philly.
My prediction: What a season for the former phenom-turned-bust-turned-star, capping his breakout first half with the Home Run Derby. Walker is right up there alongside Caminero for the quickest bat in the game, with the raw power and exit velocity you would expect from someone his size. It's nice to see him in the national spotlight, and he certainly has a chance to win given how he peppers the outfield seats during his regular BP sessions with an effortless swing. I'm not picking him, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go all the way.
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox (+500)
HRs: 20 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: Fittingly, the final player to commit to the Derby has drawn comps to Schwarber. Murakami has big-time power (blasting 20 home runs in just 200 at-bats this season) and some elite metrics backing up those numbers. Namely, 99th percentile hard-hit and barrel percentages, 98th percentile average exit velo and 87th percentile bat speed.
Why he might not: Murakami is the wild card of this field, having just come off the IL this past Friday night -- a mere three days before he'll be swinging for the fences against the sport's elite in Philly. And, though his powerful start was the talk of the sport early on, we've seen it for only 57 games. Plus, he last homered on May 27. It's not so much that Murakami can't win, it's more that we don't know what we'll see from him on Monday night.
My prediction: It will be fascinating to see how Murakami's swing translates to a Home Run Derby. He's hit 15 home runs with a launch angle of 30 degrees or higher -- most in the majors. In other words, expect high, towering shots. His average exit velocity in game action is tied with Walker for the highest of any of the competitors. So, there's no doubting his raw power. I have him advancing to the semifinals.