I love a long shot as much as the next person, but I'm not closing my eyes, throwing a dart and hoping it lands on +12000.
There still has to be a real path. The numbers must support it, the returning players must matter, and the new additions must address actual needs. These picks require some imagination and creativity but not complete delusion.
I looked at make-or-miss playoff markets, player props and a few other ways to get weird, but none made the cut. Some prices weren't long enough to fit the assignment, while others were long for very good reasons. A long shot still needs a believable path, not just a plus sign and a dream.
From national championship underdogs to Heisman sleepers, here are a few teams and players whose odds are long for a reason -- but perhaps a smidge too long.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
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National championship
Ole Miss Rebels 30-1 to win -- the credible long shot
The Rebels have the strongest long-shot case for the College Football Playoff because they have a returning quarterback capable of winning multiple playoff games. Trinidad Chambliss posted one of the SEC's best passing grades, excelling under pressure by averaging 8.0 yards per attempt without throwing an interception. He was one of only two SEC quarterbacks to avoid throwing a pick under duress, while also leading the conference in completion percentage in those situations.
Running back Kewan Lacy also returns after producing the third-most rushing yards in the country and second-most rushing scores. Deuce Alexander is the only top-three receiver who returns after 684 yards in 2025, leaving transfers to replace nearly 1,800 yards lost with the top two targets. The offensive line is more experienced, but both tackles are new, making pass protection the clearest concern.
The overall defense didn't make steady progress last season, but the run defense did late. Pete Golding, promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach, retains several players from the front seven responsible for that improvement, including Will Echoles, Kam Franklin and Suntarine Perkins. Continuity gives Ole Miss a chance to preserve its strongest defensive trait while rebuilding areas of regression: tackling, coverage and the pass rush.
Ole Miss reached the playoff semifinals last season. With a proven quarterback, elite running back and enough defensive continuity -- while getting both LSU and Georgia at home during the regular season -- Ole Miss has an outside shot at national recognition.
Washington Huskies 120-1 to win -- the calculated moonshot
The Huskies are a quarterback-driven lottery ticket. Demond Williams Jr. is the strongest singular reason to keep Washington alive. He completed 70% of his passes for 3,065 yards while adding 611 rushing yards for 31 total scores. That's the type of quarterback who can create playoff upsets.
But Washington did lose its top two running backs in Jonah Coleman and Adam Mohamed, No. 1 receiver Denzel Boston and substantial defensive production. The returning backfield and receiving corps accounted for nearly 800 combined yards from scrimmage, so not all is lost. Alex McLaughlin and Xe'ree Alexander preserve leadership through the middle of the defense, but this is no longer the balanced roster reflected by the 2025 offensive and defensive grades.
The skill position turnover is manageable with the addition of receiver Christian Moss (top 10 in C-USA receiving yards and receiving average last season) and returning receiver Dezmen Roebuck and tight end Decker DeGraaf. Oregon transfer Jayden Limar brings 5.7 yards per carry to the backfield.
What makes this a mega long shot is performance distribution. Washington averaged 45 points in its nine wins but only 9 points in its four losses. That's a massive gap. But Williams gives Washington a championship ceiling, and with matchups against Penn State, Indiana and Oregon, at 120-1, we'll find out if the Huskies can operate at a higher level.
Heisman Trophy
Demond Williams Jr., QB, Washington Huskies (55-1)
I don't know how this piece became a love letter to Washington, but Williams at 55-1 is the long shot I can justify most easily. Along with his passing abilities, he adds legitimate rushing value. More importantly, pressure didn't create reckless decisions as he threw only one interception to six scores when under duress.
He did hold the ball too long and took too many sacks, so improvement is required. But Washington has a plausible playoff path, Williams has the dual-threat production, and the schedule has enough big games to stand out.
Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona Wildcats (120-1)
Fifita offers the best statistical value, even if this directly contradicts my Arizona UNDER 7.5 wins thesis in our conference betting previews a few weeks ago. I guess that's also the point of a long shot, as the price compensates you for an outcome outside your central projection.
Fifita earned one of the best passing grades on both intermediate and deep throws, producing 19 touchdowns to only four interceptions at those depths. The individual case is real. He has improved each of his past two seasons as a starter, leaving the possibility for another jump. If Arizona surpasses its projected season win total, and if it's Fifita leading the charge, he could make some noise ... well, at least some noise. The problem is relevance, meaning Arizona probably must contend for the Big 12 and win at least 10 games.
Malachi Toney, WR, Miami Hurricanes (38-1)
Toney caught 109 passes for 1,211 yards, produced 841 yards after the catch and earned one of the best receiving grades in the country. That combo gives him both volume and highlight potential. He would need something near 1,500 yards and 15 scores and possibly a playoff appearance, while quarterback Darian Mensah could receive most of the credit.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is an obvious look, but 14-1 isn't really a long shot. The receiver path is narrower because elite production alone is insufficient. Toney would also need the Hurricanes to contend without Mensah absorbing the narrative.