Seven weeks have passed since the last Awards Watch, and though the leaderboards are still populated by many of the same names, much has changed, including the leader in this season's most scintillating race.
That would be National League MVP, where Pete Crow-Armstrong has leapfrogged Shohei Ohtani as the current front-runner. Back in early July, we noted how PCA was having a clear MVP season -- if only he and other contenders didn't play in a league with a dominant two-way player like Ohtani. We also talked about Ohtani's health being a concern as the one thing that could curb his run to another MVP. Then came the injury that has kept him off the mound, and for the past seven-plus weeks, he has been merely a superstar-level DH.
The leaderboard switch happened in the betting markets on Aug. 5, when Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani staged an incredible head-to-head duel at Wrigley Field. But the change happened in the AXE system on July 21, and Crow-Armstrong's edge has since grown into a clear -- but not insurmountable -- advantage.
Along with the epic NL MVP race, we're going to drill down between the top two in AXE in each awards category, while also noting where AXE departs from odds at DraftKings. All of this is just to sharpen our analytical eyes for the five weeks left in the regular season because, right now, none of the awards races are completely settled.
Note: AXE ratings and stats are based on results through Aug. 22.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (148.1 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (143); 3. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (134.4); 4. Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox (129.5); 5. Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox (129); 6. Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox (128.9); 7. Dillon Dingler, Tigers (128.5); 8. Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles (127.3); 9. Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (126.8); 10. Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners (126.7)
Leader trend: Alvarez passed Witt a few days after the last Stock Watch, putting AXE in agreement with the general consensus that loves Alvarez's Triple Crown trajectory. He has homered only once in August but has remained atop the AXE AL MVP leaderboard every day since July 11. He still leads the AL in average, homers and RBIs, though his lead in homers over Caminero has all but disappeared thanks to his slow month.
Alvarez's path to MVP is clear. Landing the Triple Crown certainly gets it, but keep in mind that he also leads the AL in just about every non-speed-based offensive category, not just the old back-of-the-baseball-card categories. His production, in other words, is the real deal, and he's the MVP front-runner with or without the Triple Crown. Helping his cause is the Astros' tight playoff push, which adds stakes to his production and shines a bright light on his big edge over the other contenders in win probability added. Still, Alvarez has not clinched this award, and a slow finish or injury could drop him back.
Top contender: Witt sat out some time because of a knee injury, but he has been on a tear since returning, much in the tradition of Royals great George Brett, who seemingly always came off the injured list hot as a pistol. Witt has outhit Alvarez in August while continuing to provide elite impact on the bases and wielding platinum glove-level defense in the field. Over the past week, he has reintroduced some power to the mix. In the past, we've seen that when Witt is firing on all cylinders, he can keep it going for a long time.
Working against him is the Royals' last-place standing but, then again, they've been the AL's hottest team over the past week-plus. We're not at the point where Kansas City has been playing high-stakes games, but the low bar for a wild-card slot in the league means that maybe the Royals can pressure the huge cluster of teams ahead of them if they stay hot. Witt is going to have to create a clear statistical edge over Alvarez to win over a preponderance of the voters, but suddenly you can kind of see a possible path opening up for him.
Markets say: Caminero, not Witt, rates as the biggest threat to Alvarez in the markets, while AXE has Caminero just ninth. Why the lack of love? He does big, spotlight things really well -- just check his homer and RBI totals -- but his overall impact is largely limited to those areas. His slugging percentage, despite all the homers, is lower than Contreras, for example. Caminero has hit a lot of low-leverage homers, and of the top-five MVP contenders by AXE, his win probability added is by far the lowest. He doesn't add to his case with fielding or baserunning. Even the RBIs are a bit misleading as Caminero's RBI versus expectation total ranks 454th in the majors. Again comparing him to Contreras, Caminero has had 48 more RBI opportunities but his net RBIs (RBIs with homers subtracted) are five fewer.
None of this is to argue against Caminero as being anything other than great and a thrill to watch. It's just an explanation as to why AXE doesn't seem to favor him as much as a number of other AL MVP contenders.
National League
Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (163.3 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (154.7); 3. Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (133.2); 4. JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals (131.7); 5. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (131.5); 6. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (130.2); 6. James Wood, Washington Nationals (129.9); 8. Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins (129.6); 9. CJ Abrams, Nationals (129.4); 10. Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks (128.6)
Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong has done everything an MVP is supposed to do. He's leading his team's push for a postseason spot. He's putting up big numbers on offense and defense. He has piled up big moments in high-profile games. He has matched Ohtani step-for-step at the plate while lapping him in the baserunning categories. Oh yeah, and PCA has also been the best defensive player in baseball. The biggest threat for him is probably himself, given his past penchant for going into slumps driven by iffy swing decisions. But that version of Crow-Armstrong is obsolete, and the new version grinds nearly every at-bat. Seven weeks ago, his chances still felt like an uphill battle. Now it feels as if this is Crow-Armstrong's race to lose, even if Ohtani returns to the mound soon. But it's not over.
Top contender: Then again, this is Shohei Ohtani we're talking about. Remember how he went off when he had a 50/50 season in sight in 2024? He had a .628/.667/.1.186 tear over 10 games with six homers, 20 RBIs and 10 steals. That version of Ohtani is always lurking, even as the one we've seen for most of this season is really good. You know you're historically great when what feels like a down season still makes you a top MVP contender.
It's hard to say how much, if any, Ohtani might be able to add to his case from the mound, but that's also still there. The Dodgers have been floundering of late -- for them -- and can't sleepwalk into the postseason or they could end up in a wild-card series. That context, added to an epic Ohtani splurge at the plate, a little pitching and a big Dodgers finish would mean that Crow-Armstrong doesn't have this wrapped up yet.
Markets say: Everyone but Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani is off the board, mirroring the reality that AXE sees. One of these two will be MVP.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees (145.3 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays (145.1); 3. Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians (137.8); 4. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (129.4); 5. Louis Varland, Blue Jays (128.2); 6. Sean Burke, White Sox (128.1); 7. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (127.3); 8. Sonny Gray, Red Sox (126.4); 9. Logan Gilbert, Mariners (124.4);10. Nick Martinez, Rays (123.4)
Leader trend: Schlittler has been a steady presence atop the AXE AL Cy Young leaderboard since early in the season but, as you can see, his edge over Cease is razor-thin. The two aces have been neck-and-neck for a couple of weeks, with the leaderboard changing frequently when one of them takes the mound. Schlittler has been really consistent, both in terms of run prevention and in volume, especially for such a young pitcher. If there is one thing he can improve to create a clear edge over Cease and the other contenders, it's probably simply to pitch better at Yankee Stadium. Schlittler has a barely-there 1.14 ERA over 15 road starts this season but a more pedestrian 3.71 ERA in 12 starts in the Bronx.
Top contender: According to changes in AXE, Cease has been the AL's second-hottest pitcher since the last Awards Watch, behind only Schlittler's teammate Gerrit Cole. It feels as if Cease has been carrying a no-hitter into at least the middle innings in virtually every start, including against the Yankees on Saturday. This race is so close -- Cease and Schlitter are tied in both leading versions of WAR, for example -- that it's going to come down to which pitcher comes up big in key starts down the stretch. The Blue Jays and Yankees will both be playing the kind of meaningful games that will put these aces in the spotlight every time they pitch. If trajectory has anything to do with it, Cease is in good shape -- but trajectories can change.
Markets say: Rasmussen, Messick and others, like 16-game winner Gray, are still on the board, but the markets mostly see this as a two-pitcher race. AXE isn't quite that declarative, but that does seem to be the likely scenario over these last five weeks: Schlittler versus Cease. Sadly, this weekend marks the last time the division rival Blue Jays and Yankees will face each other during the regular season. The current scheduling algorithms and formulas in baseball leave much to be desired.
National League
Front-runner: Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (154.1 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (150.5); 3. Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (140.7); 4. Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds (140.6); 5. Chris Sale, Braves (140.4); 6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (136.3); 7. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (134.0); 8. Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (133.8); 9. Mason Miller, San Diego Padres (132.6); 10. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (128.2)
Leader trend: The consensus narrative seems to have turned against Sanchez, who has been at or near the top of the AXE leaderboard all season. That shift in attention toward Misiorowski and Sale are understandable, and it probably happened because of a lackluster stretch for Sanchez before the All-Star break that included giving up nine runs at Kansas City. But he went right back to consistent dominance after that stinker, winning seven of eight starts with a 2.18 ERA before recording a no-decision against St. Louis on Sunday.
Sanchez doesn't post the same strikeout rates as Misiorowski and Sale, but he gets deeper into games and, well, just wins. He is the only NL pitcher with a real chance to win 20 games this season. It feels as if Sanchez is going to have to keep winning every start to get back into the middle of the Cy Young conversation. He's capable of doing just that.
Top contender: AXE's top contender, Misiorowski, is the clear front-runner in the nonanalytics world, which is wild because so many of his nontraditional markers are just so eye-popping. Misiorowski's ERA (1.68) is an attention-grabber and his 39% strikeout rate is the stuff of legend when we're talking about starting pitchers. But if he cruises to the NL Cy Young Award, it's going to be because of his consistency. Misiorowski has a 67% quality start rate and an average game score of 68.2 -- five points better than second-place Yamamoto. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing.
Markets say: Sale is the top competition for Misiorowski in the betting markets, though he's basically neck-and-neck with Sanchez in that derby. He has been the hottest of the three, jumping from 30th in overall AXE (among all players, not just pitchers) to 13th since the last Awards Watch. Sale's ERA during that span is 2.40 but his FIP is 1.66, suggesting he has pitched even better than his excellent surface numbers suggest. Still, you wonder what his argument would be if all three aces remain on their current paces. Misiorowski has the edge in dominance, Sanchez in volume, and all three are similar in terms of consistency.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (134.4 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Parker Messick, Guardians (130.7); 3. Tristan Peters, White Sox (120.0); 4. Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (117.7); 5. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (117.7); 6. Chase DeLauter, Guardians (116.9); 7. Walbert Urena, Angels (116.1); 8. Sam Antonacci, White Sox (113.0); 9. Spencer Miles, Blue Jays (110.6); 10. Jake Bennett, Red Sox (110.1)
Leader trend: McGonigle took the top spot over Messick in early May and has maintained it. But his lead has narrowed recently as his August numbers have been more solid than outstanding. It doesn't seem as if batting position should matter that much, but the fact of the matter is that McGonigle has hit markedly better when hitting leadoff this season (.311) than when slotted lower in the order (.243). Manager A.J. Hinch shifted him around the order more frequently in August, including one nine-game stretch in which McGonigle hit second, third and, for one start, cleanup -- but never leadoff. He hit .229 in those games. Maybe if it's not broken, don't fix it?
Top contender: More so than McGonigle slumping, Messick has closed in because he has been consistently outstanding, making him McGonigle's biggest threat in Rookie of the Year honors and putting the lefty on the fringe of Cy Young consideration. In eight starts since the beginning of July, Messick has given up two earned runs or fewer in all of them while posting a 1.88 ERA. He has won only two of those starts, which tells you more about the way the Guardians have been playing than about Messick.
Markets say: The betting markets like big homer and RBI totals, so Chicago's Murakami ranks second behind McGonigle in their version of the race, just ahead of Messick. AXE has Murakami as the second-ranked rookie on his own team. That said, Murakami could reach 40 homers if he stays in the lineup and knock on the door of 100 walks. In the metrics world, he's still paying a penalty for the weeks he sat out because of a hamstring injury, so he needs to stay in the lineup. But if Murakami can keep hitting bombs and maybe make a little more consistent contact, you could see him make a push -- and do so in the context of his team's Cinderella run for the postseason.
National League
Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (131.7 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Carson Benge, New York Mets (116.3); 3. Nolan McLean, Mets (113.1); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (112.5); 5. Sal Stewart, Reds (112.4); 6. TJ Rumfield, Colorado Rockies (112.3); 7. Didier Fuentes, Braves (110.9); 8. Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates (109.4); 9. Andrew Alvarez, Nationals (108.7); 10. Joe Mack, Marlins (108.6)
Leader trend: Wetherholt has led this category every day since May 1, when 2026 AXE figures were calculated for the first time this season, and it has never been close. That said, you'd really like to see him pick things up at the plate. He's hitting just .207/.323/.321 since the All-Star break and still hasn't hit lefties this season at all. Wetherholt's rating has been kept strong because of his baserunning and platinum glove defense at second base. The defense is a real thing, validated over multiple rating systems, and his metrics put him in the PCA/Witt class with the glove. But if Wetherholt doesn't hit, will voters be willing to dig that deep?
Top contender: Since the last Awards Watch, the hottest NL rookie has been Benge, who has been doing it in every facet and for an increasingly hot ballclub. Since the All-Star break, he has hit .319/.369/.504 while playing outstanding defense and sparking the club with his energy. If his recent trajectory remains steady, and Wetherholt doesn't improve at the plate, we could see a heated debate for this award a month from now.
Markets say: As with Murakami in the AL, Stewart's power numbers have gained the favor of the betting markets, slotting him behind favorite Wetherholt but ahead of Benge and McLean. Stewart's RBI count -- 98 at present, most in the NL -- is going to stand out to voters, though he actually sits well behind Wetherholt in win probability added. It might come down to how much of Stewart's power production ends up being discounted by voters because of Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark. But maybe it shouldn't be discounted that much, as Stewart's road numbers are only slightly worse than at home, and he has hit nearly as many home runs on the road.
Manager of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Will Venable, White Sox (113.9 EARL)
Next four: 2. Kevin Cash, Rays (111.9); 3. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (101.4); 4. John Schneider, Blue Jays (100.6); 5. Aaron Boone, Yankees (100.1)
Overview: This seems clear as a bell: If the White Sox win the AL Central, Venable will be the AL Manager of the Year. And he might get it even if they don't. Venable has had a couple of notable incidents, such as accidentally losing track of mound visits in a game, forcing the early removal of pitcher David Sandlin. And his decision not to walk Crow-Armstrong before a winning homer was a hot topic in Chicago for a day or so. Still, don't let the trees obscure the forest: If the White Sox weren't in the position they're in, no one would care. And Venable has been at the center of it all.
National League
Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (109.9 EARL)
Next four: 2. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (109.1); 3. Terry Francona, Reds (104.7); 4. Craig Stammen, Padres (103.9); 5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.7)
Overview: Could Murphy really win three in a row? EARL thinks so. Murphy is on the verge of going into the EARL manager hall of fame. He'd be the 10th manager to win the award three times, but the first to do it three seasons in a row. And if you're thinking that it won't happen because of simple voter fatigue, ask yourself this: Who else in the NL should get it? Well, that answer could turn out to be McCullough if the Marlins are able to make a spirited run to a spot in the NL playoff bracket. Short of that, this very well could be Murphy's award yet again.