The always-reliable betting public has spoken: The Ohio State Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Texas Longhorns are the teams to beat entering the 2026 college football season.
Oddsmakers say the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes have similar power ratings to the Buckeyes, Fighting Irish and Longhorns. Bets on any of those teams are easy to understand.
The national championship wagers that Hard Rock Bet took from one customer way back in January are tougher to rationalize.
On Jan. 21, a bettor walked into Hard Rock's retail sportsbook in Hollywood, Florida, and placed a $991 bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win the national championship at 1,000-1 odds. Five days later, the same bettor returned and put another $500 on the Cowboys, according to the sportsbook. Combined, the two bets would produce a payout of nearly $1.5 million if Oklahoma State wins the national championship.
Oklahoma State is revamped under new coach Eric Morris, but winning a national title after going 1-11 last season would be quite the turnaround. Still, we're not here to judge the Oklahoma State bets, but we are indeed curious.
While we ponder exactly what is behind them, let's take a look at other betting storylines as the season prepares to kick off: Point spreads are shrinking, Hurricanes homerism is off the charts, and the sharps are circling some under-the-radar teams.
And, by the way, Oklahoma State isn't the only team inspiring curious bets.
Spread shrinkage
In an era when everything in college football seems to be growing -- from conferences to the playoff to players' salaries -- one element of the game has been shrinking: the point spread.
The average point spread on games between FBS teams over the past three seasons has dropped to around 10.5, more than a point below historical averages (11.7). The last three seasons rank among the five lowest average spreads in modern history, with only 1981 (10.4) and 1984 (9.7) featuring lower lines, according to ESPN Research.
A 2025 academic study found that NIL is correlated with smaller point spreads, tighter margins of victory and more losses by favorites. The average gap between the actual margin of victory and the closing point spread fell to 11.84 points last season, a 15-year low.
In addition to NIL, conference expansion is driving the point-spread shrinkage. Leagues are bigger, resulting in more conference games with smaller point spreads than your typical SEC-Sun Belt mismatch, for example. The SEC will play nine conference games this season.
Las Vegas oddsmaker Chase Michaelson, who oversees the college football betting market for Circa Sports, says an SEC team trading a small-conference team for a conference opponent can result in a 40-point difference in power ratings in the matchups. He says that's why the average point spread is shrinking.
"Overall, I think the gap is widening between the power conferences and non-power conferences," he said.
The average point spread in conference games the past two seasons was 9.1, an all-time low. Meanwhile, the average line on nonconference games grew to 15.7 last season, a 12-year high.
Public action
In the playoff era, only one preseason betting favorite has gone on to win the title (Alabama Crimson Tide in 2017). Over the past four seasons, the preseason favorite hasn't even reached the semifinals.
The betting public has not been deterred by that little bit of history, however, and has loaded up on the three favorites this offseason.
At BetMGM, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State account for nearly 50% of the total amount wagered on the national title odds. Bettors have wagered more money on Texas to win the national championship than any other team at DraftKings.
Hard Rock Bet says the four largest championship bets it took this offseason were on Ohio State. Coincidentally, Ohio State has attracted more national championship wagers from bettors in Michigan than any other team, including the Michigan Wolverines, at Hard Rock Bet.
The public is getting longer odds than normal on the top favorites. Beginning the week, Ohio State and Notre Dame were co-favorites to win the national title at +600 at DraftKings, with Texas close behind at +650. In the past 20 years, only one other favorite (Alabama 2016) has had longer odds entering the season, according to ESPN Research.
Fast fact: Notre Dame is 34-18-2 against the spread under coach Marcus Freeman (65.4%), the best ATS record of any active coach.
Sharp action
Sharp bets move the line. A customer who, over time, has been known to have good information or influence on the market places a bet, and the bookmaker adjusts the odds.
Sharp bettors don't typically target futures markets, such as the odds to win the national championship, in the preseason. Tying up money on bets that won't settle for close to six months isn't viewed as the wisest use of their bankroll. Instead, sharps target markets such as season-win totals and -- to a lesser degree -- the early point spreads that some sportsbooks post on the biggest matchups of the season.
Here are three teams' season-win totals that attracted line-moving action at Caesars Sportsbook:
Virginia Tech Hokies (7.5). Bettors took the under on the Hokies, moving the price from 7.5 -120 under to 7.5 -180 under.
Colorado Buffaloes (3.5). Bettors bet the Buffaloes' win total up from 3.5 -160 over to 4.5 -145 under.
Florida State Seminoles (6.5). Bettors took the under on the Seminoles, moving the price from 6.5 -135 under to 6.5 -200 under.
Here are three games that attracted early line-moving action at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas:
Ohio State at Texas, Sept. 12: Chris Andrews, the South Point's veteran sportsbook director, opened Week 2's marquee matchup at pick 'em, before enough influential action came in on the host Longhorns to bump the number up to Texas -1.5.
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes, Nov. 7: BYU opened as 2.5-point favorites over Utah, but the line quickly flipped on support for the Utes. Utah is now a 2-point favorite over BYU.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Rebels, Nov. 28: In the biggest early move, UNLV dropped from an 18.5-point favorite to a 15-point favorite over Nevada.
Three early lines on big games, via the South Point:
Sept 12: Oklahoma at Michigan -2
Nov. 7: Miami at Notre Dame -6.5
Nov. 7: Oregon at Ohio State -5
Here's how the CFB Game of the Year Lines have moved at @southpointlv since opening pic.twitter.com/SCdMhUaj2N
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) August 24, 2026
Miami-mania
In January, as Miami was making its somewhat improbable playoff run, the bosses at Hard Rock Bet watched as the sportsbook's liability on the Hurricanes climbed.
All season long at Hard Rock -- the only legal sportsbook in Florida -- home-state bettors had backed the Hurricanes. Even after Miami's playoff hopes dwindled and their odds lengthened to 100-1 after a late-season upset loss to the SMU Mustangs, people kept betting on Miami.
"The two teams that we lose a lot to right now, due to some bigger, individual tickets, are Notre Dame and Miami." Chase Michaelson, Circa Sports
The support and liability grew as the Hurricanes won three straight games as an underdog. By the time Miami reached the championship game, the sportsbook was facing potentially its most expensive day in company history if the Hurricanes upset favored Indiana. The Hoosiers ultimately prevailed, and the Hard Rock sportsbook bosses privately exhaled. But it's happening again ahead of this season.
"To put Florida's love for the Canes into perspective: Miami has taken in more money to win the national championship in Florida than the entire rest of college football combined," Neil Walsh, senior vice president of Hard Rock Bet's sportsbook, told ESPN.
Nearly $1 of every $3 wagered on the national title so far at Hard Rock Bet in Florida is on the Hurricanes, according to the sportsbook. In comparison, Ohio State accounts for only around 18% of the money bet on the national title in Ohio with Hard Rock.
Miami has approximately 11 times more national title bets than Florida and roughly 26 times more than Florida State, according to Hard Rock Bet. The Hurricanes have attracted six times more money than Ohio State in Florida.
More curious bets
In April, a bettor at a William Hill sportsbook in Nevada placed a $3,000 bet on Rutgers to win the national championship at 500-1 odds. The bet would pay a net $1.5 million.
A $2,000 bet on UCLA to win the national title at 600-1 that would net $1.2 million at DraftKings.
Hard Rock Bet reported taking 20 individual bets from the same customer on Sam Houston State to win the national title at 5,000-1. Gag gifts for a bachelor's party, maybe? They don't seem like they'd be worth much more. Sam Houston State went 2-12 last season and is 15-22 since joining the FBS four years ago.
An $800 wager on South Florida to win the national title at 500-1 that would net $400,000 at DraftKings.
A $10 flier on UMass at 5,000-1 that would win $500,000 at Hard Rock Bet. (5,000-1 is the same odds offered on Charles Barkley winning the celebrity golf tournament in Tahoe).
And lastly, potentially one of the most curious of all on a familiar team: DraftKings reported receiving a $1,000 donation ... err ... bet on Oklahoma State to win the national championship at 400-1.