Week 0 of the 2026 college football season kicks off across the pond. While most folks are hyped for fresh jerseys and new hope, I'm eyeing something less flashy: punts and missed field goals.
Two openers this week -- one in Charlottesville, one across the Atlantic in Dublin, Ireland -- both shape up as "new quarterback, new players, no chemistry yet" type of games.
In totals betting, chemistry is the whole game.
Call it Week 0 speed dating; everybody's excited, nobody knows the routine yet, and the awkward pauses show up on the scoreboard.
Two games, two rosters overhauled at the skill spots, two defenses that lost pieces and are facing offenses that aren't ready to attack.
It's Week 0. Go light. No need to spray the board. There's plenty of football to come.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
NC State at Virginia: UNDER 53.5
Explosive scoring needs chemistry. Quarterbacks knowing where guys will be, receivers winning contested balls, backs hitting the right gap on instinct. Week 1 with brand new pieces means none of that exists yet.
But both offenses are gutted, with Virginia being the extreme case. The Cavaliers have a new quarterback (Chandler Morris gone), new running backs (Taylor, Waylee both gone), new receivers (Harris, Edrie, Ross all gone). This is the first date for this new offense, and first dates tend to be more awkward than efficient. Expect checkdowns, miscommunications, stalled drives, not immediate touchdowns.
Beau Pribula comes in from Missouri. Is he experienced? Sure. Could he elevate Virginia's offense? I'm not ready to state that. Morris held up way better when the pocket collapsed, in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and especially his ability to extend plays with his legs. The biggest difference that gives me pause, Morris was responsible for only 11.5% of his own pressure, but Pribula's 37% of his pressure was self-inflicted.
If Virginia's protection is shaky, Pribula's success is concerning one for a Week 0 environment.
NC State is better positioned because at least QB CJ Bailey and RB Jayden Scott return, but its whole new receiver room and TE Justin Joly are gone too, so even a comfortable quarterback is getting familiar with new pieces.
Both defenses lost key parts, which normally nudges totals up, but you need functioning offenses to punish a weak defense, and neither has that right now. Under is the move.
North Carolina vs. TCU (in Ireland): UNDER 47.5
TCU's offense just took a gut punch. QB Josh Hoover is off to Indiana, and Eric McAlister, who led the entire Big 12 in receiving yards, is also gone. That's your top passer and top target both walking out the door in the same offseason. New quarterback Jaden Craig (Harvard transfer) is stepping in with basically RB Jeremy Payne and WR Jordan Dwyer as his only roster-experienced playmakers.
UNC's actually in better shape offensively, the backfield remains intact with Demon June and Benjamin Hall. Additionally, WR Jordan Shipp is back after leading the team in receiving scores in 2025, while QB transfer Billy Edwards Jr., created and studied around 1,000 physical flashcards to master new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino's offense. That's the kind of prep that suggests his 2024 Maryland numbers (2,811 yards 65% completion) weren't just a talented arm. This could be a real positive counter to the "new starter in Week 0" risk I lean on elsewhere.
But how does this help the under? I've had my eye on UNC unders all preseason. They went 4-7 to the under last year, 2-4 on the road. The Tar Heels defense was the stronger side of the team, and even after losing some defensive tackles and corners, they kept their best players, including DL Melkart Abou Jaoude (most sacks in conference), plus their top DBs Jaiden Patterson and Kaleb Cost.
Similar to NC State at Virginia, overturn on defenses can only be tested if the offense across from it can cash in, and neither side is fully equipped to do that. Throw in the neutral site in Dublin, no home rhythm for either team, and this could be more of a ground and pound, low-scoring opening matchup into the 2026 college football season.