Why Ivan Toney's inclusion in England's World Cup squad probably doesn't matter

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Tuchel: No fear leaving Foden, Palmer & Trent out of England squad (2:15)

Thomas Tuchel speaks about some of the exclusions from his England squad for the FIFA World Cup. (2:15)

It's the most intensely debated aspect of the build up to any World Cup: who should be included in the squad, and who should be left at home?

After months of conjecture, Thomas Tuchel named Al Ahli's Ivan Toney in his England squad for this summer's tournament, and so the country has its latest culture war. Has Toney done enough? Why not Dominic Calvert-Lewin? Or maybe Jarrod Bowen? Etc. etc. ad infinitum.

Toney was just one of a handful of eyebrow-raising calls from the England manager, such as the decision to omit Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Harry Maguire in favour of the likes of Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Dan Burn.

But while debating a list of 26 names is fun, only 13-16 players really decide a country's success or failure on the pitch in reality. You and I can most likely name those 13-16 now. Harry Kane is one of them and so is Declan Rice.

Toney, by contrast, while possibly handy for a penalty shootout, has played only two minutes under Tuchel to date and so is almost certainly not one of those players upon which England's success or failure in the United States, Canada and Mexico will depend.

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So which England players do matter?

As this bar chart shows, roughly 13-16 players in the squad have a say in how things turn out on the pitch -- everyone else is relatively superfluous.

Managers tend to tinker with their team a little in the group stages, but when the high stakes knockout phase come around, they stick with a tried and tested set of players who they place their faith in through thick and thin, injuries notwithstanding.

The names of those 13-16 players -- shown in red -- who have been most heavily relied upon during those key knockout fixtures -- i.e. the matches that success or failure in a tournament hinge on -- will not come as a surprise: Jordan Pickford, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane -- you can guess the rest.

Even when the squad sizes increased in the wake of Euro 2020, the number of players featuring in at least 10% of their team's minutes in the knockout rounds has remained relatively consistent in comparison to when 23-man squads were allowed. Interestingly, for the tournament as a whole -- shown in grey -- the number of players featuring in their fair share of minutes has actually decreased.

Roy Hodgson was scrambling around for answers in 2014, with 20 members of his 23-man squad playing in at least 10% of the available minutes as England were knocked out in the group stages in Brazil. Four years later, 20 members Gareth Southgate's popular 2018 group had their numbers inflated by the fact the England boss rotated his team in two effective dead-rubbers against Belgium -- once in the last group game where both sides had already secured their places in the knockouts, and again in the third-place playoff.

Southgate was recognised to value every member of his squad, proven in part by the fact 19 had decent involvement in England's run to the final of Euro 2020. However, five of the other seven players who made up that 26-man squad (Sam Johnstone, Aaron Ramsdale, Ben White, Conor Coady and Ben Chilwell) did not play a single minute.

Across all seven tournaments dating back to Euro 2012, 25 players failed to see a single minute of action -- 14 of those 25 were overlooked outfield players, all of whom were not considered key members of their respective groups such as Conor Gallagher at the 2022 World Cup or Adam Wharton at Euro 2024.

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The Conor Coady example

There is also a somewhat valid argument that some players are picked for more than what they can provide on the pitch, so perhaps we shouldn't be too dismissive of Toney's possible role this summer.

The most obvious example of this non-football-playing footballer was Coady at Euro 2020. He watched every minute of the Three Lions' run to the final from the substitutes' bench. And yet, such was his presence within the group, Southgate said he rated Coady as one of the most important members of the squad.

"I'm thinking of the lads we didn't get on the pitch," Southgate said after the group stage win over Ukraine. "Conor Coady, Ben Chilwell, Sam Johnstone, Aaron Ramsdale, they're the ones making this team successful. The spirit in the group is phenomenal," the England manager said.

"The squad mentality is fantastic. That's uppermost in my mind, looking after those guys."

Assistant coach Steve Holland went a step further in describing Coady as England's "player of the tournament so far" ahead of the semifinal against Denmark.

"In the dressing room before the game, he speaks like he's captain, despite the fact that he's not been on the pitch yet -- which is incredibly difficult to do," Holland added on the Daily Euros podcast.

Coady was also taken to the World Cup in Qatar, but again failed to get on the pitch.


Despite an ability to lift the mood during those long days in camp, a look at the headline inclusion of each England squad for a major tournament dating back to Euro 2012 tells a story of general irrelevance on the pitch.

Euro 2024

The story of Gareth Southgate's final England squad were the inclusions of Crystal Palace stars Eberechi Eze and Adam Wharton and the omissions of Jack Grealish, Harry Maguire and James Maddison.

Eze, now at Arsenal, had impressed when earning his third England cap a few days before the squad announcement, while Wharton was considered by many to be the fulcrum of the country's midfield for years to come. That they were preferred to the likes of Grealish and Maddison was an indication that Southgate was looking to the next generation of England stars to help deliver the major tournament success that had so far eluded the team.

How much of an impact did they have?

Eze was on the peripheries of Southgate's thinking during the tournament, making three substitute appearances as the Three Lions made it to the final where they were beaten by Spain. His biggest moment in England's campaign was a miscued volley from the edge of the area that was headed across goal by Toney for Kane to nod home and send England past Slovakia in the round of 16.

Wharton, meanwhile, did not play a single minute with Southgate opting instead to partner Rice and Jude Bellingham with either Kobbie Mainoo, Conor Gallagher, or recognised right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold.

World Cup 2022

Then- Leicester City playmaker James Maddison was the headline inclusion in Southgate's squad at the last World Cup, picked ahead of Bowen and Toney. Maddison was in inspired form for Leicester in the weeks before the group was announced and he was picked in the event that England might need to add some fresh creativity to their attack. His ability at dead-ball situations was also seen as a plus point for team that excelled at set-pieces.

How much of an impact did he have?

A knee injury picked up during Leicester's win at West Ham on Nov. 12 meant he was never fully fit and he did not see a single minute of action before England were beaten by France in the quarterfinals.

Euro 2020

There were plenty of fringe players in the mix after Southgate first opted to name a provisional 33-man squad for the delayed tournament, but when his 26-player group was confirmed there were no debutants on the list. Southgate's pick of Trent Alexander-Arnold was the story after he had missed England's previous seven internationals.

How much of an impact did he have?

Alexander-Arnold was ruled out of the tournament with a thigh injury two days after Southgate's squad was announced. Ben White was subsequently announced as his replacement but, again, the defender did not play in any of England's matches.

World Cup 2018

Perhaps the first sign of the headache he has become for England managers, Alexander-Arnold was also the head-turning addition in 2018. The Liverpool academy graduate, one of a number of full-backs selected, had enjoyed a breakout season under Jürgen Klopp, becoming his club's first-choice right-back and helping the team reach the Champions League final.

Elsewhere, 32-year-old Gary Cahill was recalled and there was also a place for Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

How much of an impact did they have?

Alexander-Arnold's tournament consisted of a 79-minute appearance against Belgium in England's last group game when both teams had already qualified for the knockout rounds. Given he was behind a peak-age Kyle Walker in the pecking order at right-back, it is perhaps unsurprising that the then-19-year-old would struggle for game time.

Cahill also featured in the Belgium match in the group stages, but that was his only appearance. Loftus-Cheek, meanwhile, did rack up 274 minutes -- and got one assist -- but was overlooked in the key knockout round fixtures and the majority of his game time came against Panama and both effective dead rubbers against Belgium.

Euro 2016

Roy Hodgson named an initial 26-man squad for Euro 2016 before slimming it down to the required 23 and it was teenage striker Marcus Rashford who beat off competition from Andros Townsend and Danny Drinkwater to be included.

Rashford's inclusion was the latest moment in a whirlwind rise to prominence for the Manchester United man. His place in the squad was confirmed four days after he scored his first international goal and 24 hours after signing a new four-year contract at Old Trafford.

How much of an impact did he have?

Rashford played the last 17 minutes of England's dramatic late win over Wales in their second group game but was not seen again until his four-minute cameo during the infamous round-of-16 defeat to Iceland which cost Hodgson his job.

World Cup 2014

Hodgson opted to name Southampton trio Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana and Luke Shaw in his youthful travelling party for the World Cup in Brazil, but it was Ross Barkley's selection that made headlines. The 20-year-old was included after helping Everton secure Europa League qualification.

How much of an impact did he have?

Unusually for a controversial squad pick, Barkley was involved in every England match in Brazil. The issue was that there were only three of them.

Hodgson's side disappointed in the tournament and were knocked out in the group stages where Barkley racked up 143 minutes with one start and two appearances from the substitutes' bench. England lost their first two against Italy and Uruguay and drew 0-0 with Costa Rica.

Euro 2012

There were a couple of surprise additions to Hodgson's squad for Euro 2012 with Andy Carroll and the uncapped Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain among the 23. Oxlade-Chamberlain was selected despite making just six Premier League starts for Arsenal and the decision drew parallels to Sven Göran-Eriksson's call to take Theo Walcott to the 2006 World Cup.

Carroll was among a number of Liverpool players selected by the former Liverpool manager. Stewart Downing was also called up despite failing to score a goal or provide an assist since arriving at Anfield in a £20 million deal the previous summer.

How much of an impact did they have?

Oxlade-Chamberlain was a surprise inclusion in England's starting XI for their opening match of the tournament against France. He failed to do enough to keep his spot in the team, though, and went on to play one minute in the 3-2 win over Sweden in the group stages and three in the loss to Ukraine. He was an unused substitute in the quarterfinal defeat to Italy.

Euro 2012 was the highlight of Carroll's international career. He started two of the country's four games in the tournament, scoring a header against Sweden. He only made two more appearances for England.


So you can probably forget trying to work out how Toney might fire the Three Lions to glory this summer -- that will almost certainly come down to Kane's shooting boots, Rice's energy reserves and Pickford's reflexes.

Whether the likes of Foden and Palmer would offer more than Toney is now moot, but their standing in the regard of the England boss means that, had they been picked, they would likely be watching most of the tournament from the substitutes' bench too.

Whoever takes up the last seat on the plane is almost always the last player to enter a manager's thinking when the team's pivotal moment arrives.