When 2026 began in the tennis world, it looked like we were destined for another year of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner destroying all comers on the men's side, while Aryna Sabalenka rolled up a large points advantage on the women's side. With the US Open starting Sunday, however, here's what the year's given us thus far:
One Alcaraz-Sinner match. It was a straight-set win for Sinner in Monte Carlo in April. Soon after, Alcaraz was sidelined by a wrist injury. In his absence, Sinner has mostly devoured the competition in front of him, but he collapsed physically in an out-of-nowhere loss in the second round of the French Open, and he hasn't played since winning his second straight Wimbledon title due to a knee injury.
One day after Alcaraz announced he would be returning to action at the US Open, Sinner announced he wouldn't be able to play. That assures that all of 2026 will have gone by without a single Sincaraz match at a Slam.
A four-way race for No. 1 on the women's side. Sabalenka won 26 of her first 27 matches of 2026. But in her past seven events, she's gone just 14-7 and reached only one semifinal. Now Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all have a chance to pass her for the No. 1 ranking in New York.
This year's eight WTA 1000 events have produced 10 different finalists and seven different champions, and with no Sinner and with Alcaraz trying to shake off months of rust -- and with the No. 2 and No. 3 favorites, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic, a combined 2-3 in the summer hard-court swing -- both the men's and women's draws could turn out to be wide open.
Absences are defining the run-up to the final Slam of 2026: No Sinner, no Serena Williams, no Joao Fonseca (abdominal injury), no Jack Draper (countless injuries) and, shamefully, almost no Stan Wawrinka. Thankfully, this event always gives us 256 interesting individual stories to follow. Here are the 21 players who are most likely to define the Queens fortnight.
Carlitos
Carlos Alcaraz
DraftKings odds: +250 (equivalent to 28.6%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils (quarterfinals)
Not too long ago, Alcaraz was flying. He won his first 16 matches of 2026, and after disappointing results at Indian Wells and Miami, he raced to the finals in Monte Carlo. But he got thumped by Sinner and withdrew after one match in Barcelona. Understanding how threatening a wrist injury can be, Alcaraz was rightly deliberate in his recovery. But now he's jumping straight back into the best-of-five pool. Not optimal.
As former US Open champion Andy Roddick put it a couple of weeks ago on his "Served with Andy Roddick" podcast, "When you're taking your time, and you've been so diligent about being safe and not being irresponsible, that risk comes back; all of a sudden he's in a five-setter [in the] first round of the US Open. That would be counter to everything that he has done thus far."
Alcaraz's early draw is solid, but he's looking at potential matches against Tommy Paul (who's beaten him twice) in the fourth round and an extremely in-form top-10 opponent (either Shelton or Fils) in the quarterfinals. And at the end of it all could be five sets of suffer ball against Zverev. He's the tournament favorite because he's Carlos Alcaraz, but we'll see what he's actually capable of at this point.
Women's favorites
Aryna Sabalenka
DraftKings odds: +320 (23.8%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Linda Noskova (quarterfinals)
It just doesn't look like Sabalenka has been having much fun of late. Her seven recent losses have all come against top-40 opponents, and she's still looked perfectly solid at times. But she's lost her past three matches against the top 20, and her flamboyant personality has almost seemed muted.
Maybe that changes in New York. Over the past five years, she's a preposterous 30-3 at the US Open. She's been the best hard courter on the women's tour for a while, which made underwhelming performances in Toronto and Cincinnati even more surprising. Still, her track record makes her the favorite.
Coco Gauff
DraftKings odds: +500 (16.7%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Mirra Andreeva or No. 10 Amanda Anisimova (quarterfinals)
If recent form matters, Gauff should probably be the overall favorite. After her heartbreaking loss to Karolina Muchova in the Wimbledon semifinals, she proceeded to go 9-1 in Toronto and Cincinnati, losing only to Elena Rybakina. She dropped her first set in Cincinnati, then won 12 straight, pounding Pegula in the finals. Almost no one on tour rebounds better from setbacks, and Gauff heads to New York with an excellent shot at grabbing Slam title No. 3. Her draw is solid, too: She's 5-0 lifetime against the next-highest seeded player in her quarter (Andreeva).
Iga Swiatek
DraftKings odds: +550 (15.4%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Elena Rybakina (quarterfinals)
Swiatek remains untouchable when in rhythm: Over the past year, she's won 37 sets by 6-0 or 6-1 margins; no one else has won more than 28. But she's also lost 17 matches in that span, with only three finals appearances and two titles. For someone who won her sixth Slam title by age 24, that's a confounding lack of success.
Since her early-round Wimbledon loss to Alexandra Eala, however, Swiatek is 10-1, a run that includes five top-20 wins. She blew out Rybakina in the Toronto finals and lost to Pegula in Cincinnati. Her return game is as intimidating as ever, and if she has her serve under control -- not a guarantee -- she could easily roll to her second US Open title.
Naomi Osaka
DraftKings odds: +1000 (9.1%) First potential top-10 opponent: Rybakina (fourth round)
Five years ago, it looked like Osaka might end up the best hard-court women's player of all time. In a span of six US Opens and Australian opens, she won four of them. But after an extended malaise and a year off to have a child, she won just seven total matches in the first seven Slams after her return.
Last year's US Open might have marked her real return. She reached the semifinals there, and following a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon, she reached the semis in Washington and the quarters (with a tight, three-set loss to Rybakina) in Toronto this summer. She's in Rybakina's quarter, by far the roughest in the women's draw, but we're seeing her A-game with more frequency.
Elena Rybakina
DraftKings odds: +1100 (8.3%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Swiatek (quarterfinals)
On the cusp of her first No. 1 ranking thanks to her six finals appearances (with four titles) and Sabalenka's funk, Rybakina got thumped by Swiatek in the Toronto final, then had to retire with an ankle injury in a rematch against Swiatek in Cincinnati. The injury wasn't serious enough to take her out of the US Open, but she had to withdraw from the mixed doubles event and missed practices. And then Swiatek (and Osaka) landed in her part of the draw. The 27-year-old could still leave New York with Slam No. 3 and the No. 1 ranking, but the odds aren't as good as they were a couple of weeks ago.
Jessica Pegula
DraftKings odds: +1200 (7.7%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina (quarterfinals)
At 32 years old, the steadiest player on tour still has a shot at some elusive firsts: first Slam title and first No. 1 ranking. Two years ago at this time, she had reached six Slam quarterfinals but had never been able to get further; since, she's reached three semis and one final.
She's 18-4 in her past four hard-court Slams, and she's won 79% of her matches in 2026, a career best. In her eight hard-court events this year, she's reached the semis in five and the finals in three. Her relentless depth and flat strokes make her difficult to attack; does she have two perfect weeks in her?
Alexandra Eala
DraftKings odds: +2800 (3.4%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Gauff (fourth round)
In the past three months alone, the 21-year-old Eala -- a burgeoning Filipino star who draws raucous crowds wherever she goes -- has beaten Swiatek, Pegula, Rybakina, Osaka and No. 9 seed Elina Svitolina (twice). She plays a charismatic, confident game and turns every match into a home match, and she's risen from 75th to 18th in the WTA rankings in under a year. She still has bouts of inconsistency, and it might still be too early to expect a huge Slam run, but ... then again, it might not.
Others: Mirra Andreeva (+1400), Amanda Anisimova (+1600), Marta Kostyuk (+1800), Linda Noskova (+3000)
If not Alcaraz, then who?
Alexander Zverev
DraftKings odds: +300 (25.0%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Alex de Minaur (quarterfinals)
He has won 13 of his past 14 matches in Slams and lost three of his past five matches outside of them. Zverev is a bit hard to read, in other words, but he's the No. 1 seed, he finally enjoyed a long-awaited Slam breakthrough in winning the French Open in June and he's reached at least the semis in six of his 12 hard-court Slams this decade. If Alcaraz isn't ready for a run, Zverev's the favorite.
Novak Djokovic
DraftKings odds: +700 (12.5%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
True: Djokovic has reached at least the semifinals in 14 of his past 16 Slams (and two of three in 2026). Even at 39, and even while playing fewer events than ever, he continues to consistently play his way into form at the biggest events. And his US Open draw is pretty friendly.
Also true: He's won only 71% of his matches in 2026, his worst win percentage on tour in 20 years. In his only match since Wimbledon, in the heat and humidity of Cincinnati, he was gassed by the second set and lost to No. 50 Thiago Agustin Tirante.
We'll see which one of those truths matters more.
Ben Shelton
DraftKings odds: +900 (10.0%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Fils (fourth round)
In his first three full seasons on tour, Shelton won 52%, then 62%, then 63% of his matches. The 23-year-old has enjoyed a breakthrough of sorts in 2026: His win percentage is 72%, and it's 76% on hard courts, the surface that has produced four of his five career Slam quarterfinals (and both semis).
In other words, if someone is going to break through and finally end a more than 20-year American title drought in Slams, his name is the first on the list. He won his second straight Montreal title without dropping a set this month. After a bit of a summer swoon, he enters the US Open in stellar form.
Taylor Fritz
DraftKings odds: +1200 (7.7%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Flavio Cobolli (fourth round)
Then again, maybe Fritz should top the American hopefuls list. He's 14-3 in his past three US Open appearances after all, and he reached the finals in 2024. The 28-year-old has battled nagging knee issues all season and began the year a dismal 12-10. But he's 19-5 with three finals appearances and one title in his past six events. He might be finding top gear just in time.
Rafael Jodar
DraftKings odds: +1200 (7.7%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 de Minaur (fourth round)
The breakout star of 2026, Jodar ranked 540th at the start of August 2025; he's currently 13th, and while clay appears to be his best surface, he has a complete overall game, and he reached the finals in Washington D.C. before losing to Fritz. It's only a matter of time before the former Virginia Cavalier makes a run to a Slam semifinal or final.
Arthur Fils
DraftKings odds: +1200 (7.7%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Shelton (fourth round)
Like Eala, Fils' game just oozes charisma. He takes lots of big swings and makes lots of big reactions. He's also created some big results of late: After missing most of eight months with a back injury, the 22-year-old has reached three finals since February and just won his first 1000-level title, beating two top-10 opponents and Frances Tiafoe to win in Cincinnati.
Frances Tiafoe
DraftKings odds: +4000 (2.4%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Medvedev (fourth round)
Three weeks ago, Tiafoe underwent surgery to remove a cyst from his right hand, something that clearly contributed to a run of three losses in four matches. He almost immediately returned to action and beat three top-15 opponents on his way to the finals in Cincinnati. A two-time US Open semifinalist, we know Tiafoe has the game and personality to make another big run in New York.
Brandon Nakashima
DraftKings odds: +5000 (2.0%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Djokovic (fourth round)
For a moment, it seemed like Nakashima's growth had stagnated: For most of two years, he spent almost the entire time ranked between about 28th and 40th in the world. But after going 12-3 in the summer hard-court swing, with two semifinal exits (Washington and Cincinnati), a finals run (Canada) and five top-15 wins, he's suddenly up to 17th. He could be a tough out for Djokovic or anyone else in that quarter.
Others: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+2800), Jakub Mensik (+3000), Flavio Cobolli (+3500), Daniil Medvedev (+3500), Tommy Paul (+5000), Learner Tien (+6000)
They love New York
Madison Keys
DraftKings odds: +3000 (3.2%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Swiatek (fourth round)
The 2025 Australian Open champ (and three-time US Open semifinalist and 2017 finalist) has always been a bit of a moving target: Assume greatness, and she gets tripped up; write her off, and she unleashes brilliance.
She's fallen from seventh to 23rd in the WTA rankings since the start of the year, but she's still 3-3 against top-10 opponents in that span. And with potential shots at No. 12 Belinda Bencic (third round), Swiatek (fourth) and Rybakina or Osaka (quarters), this could easily turn out to be an "I'm not trapped in this rugged quarter with you, you're trapped in here with me" situation.
Karolina Muchova
DraftKings odds: +3000 (3.2%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Svitolina (fourth round)
Muchova's career has been defined by brilliant shotmaking followed by injuries and inconsistency. Last we saw the 30-year-old, she was falling to Linda Noskova in the third set of the Wimbledon finals. She hasn't played singles since then, having undergone a "small surgery," according to a social media post. But she was healthy enough to team up with Jakub Mensik to win last week's US Open mixed doubles tournament, and she's reached at least the quarterfinals in her past three Open appearances.
Elina Svitolina
DraftKings odds: +4000 (2.4%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Muchova (fourth round)
At 31 years old, Svitolina is enjoying her most consistent season in nearly a decade: The former World No. 3 has won 75.0% of her matches this year, her best average since 2017 (76.8%), and she's made at least the semis in five of the nine hard-court tournaments she's entered. The 2019 US Open semifinalist and 2021 quarterfinalist might have to beat Muchova and Pegula to reach the semis, but it's not like she's not capable of it.
Stan Wawrinka
DraftKings odds: +50000 (0.2%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 4 Djokovic (second round)
The USTA should be forever embarrassed by the fact that Wawrinka, the retiring 41-year-old and 2016 US Open champion, didn't initially receive a wild card into the tournament. Slams should be like the Masters -- active previous champions should simply get in no matter what. Bianca Andreescu shouldn't have had to go through, and eventually fall in, qualification either.
Regardless, following an injury withdrawal, Wawrinka got his bid, and his final Slam appearance will start with a rematch against Matteo Berrettini, who beat him in a titanic first-round match (four sets, four tiebreakers) at Wimbledon. And if he wins, he might get Djokovic, whom he defeated in the 2016 finals, in a poetic second-rounder.
Venus Williams
DraftKings odds: +50000 (0.2%) First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Pegula (second round)
While Serena Williams decided not to play singles, the 46-year-old Venus, the seven-time Slam champion (and winner of back-to-back US Opens a quarter-century ago) trucks onward, for better or worse. Her win over Peyton Stearns last summer was a reminder that she can still hit the heck out of a tennis ball, and she's taken stellar players like Muchova and Magda Linette to three sets since. But she's also lost 14 tour matches in a row overall.
A first-round match against the ultimate first-strike, all-or-nothing player -- 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin -- will give her a chance to get off the schneid, but teaming up with her sister in doubles might provide an even more likely opportunity for a win.
Others: Belinda Bencic, three-time quarterfinalist (+3500); Barbora Krejcikova, two-time quarterfinalist (+5000); Lorenzo Musetti, 2025 quarterfinalist (+5000); Alex de Minaur, three-time quarterfinalist (+6000); Emma Navarro, 2024 semifinalist (+6000); Matteo Berrettini, three-time quarterfinalist and 2019 semifinalist (+10000); Leylah Fernandez, 2021 finalist (+10000); Jiri Lehecka, 2025 quarterfinalist (+10000); Casper Ruud, 2022 finalist (+10000); Grigor Dimitrov, 2019 semifinalist (+13000): Karen Khachanov, 2022 semifinalist (+13000); Sloane Stephens, 2017 champion (+25000); Marin Cilic, 2014 champion (+50000); Pablo Carreno Busta, two-time semifinalist (+50000); Gael Monfils, four-time quarterfinalist and 2016 semifinalist (+50000)