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ESPN Senior Writer- Michael Voepel is a senior writer who covers the WNBA, women's college basketball and other college sports. Voepel began covering women's basketball in 1984, and has been with ESPN since 1996.
Becky Hammon said it plainly. When it comes to Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup championship (7 p.m. ET), a meeting between the two winningest teams over the past three seasons makes for a pretty good midseason showcase.
"People want to see New York versus Vegas, so I think it's good for the fans," the Las Vegas Aces coach said. "Barclays has been a tough place for us to play the last few years. So it's going to be a great battle.
"I know Barclays is going to be rocking."
The New York Liberty will host the Aces in a matchup between the winners of the past four WNBA championships. It will also be a rematch of the 2023 Commissioner's Cup title game and the Finals that same season. The Liberty won the Cup 82-63, while the Aces won the Finals 3-1. New York won the organization's first WNBA championship in 2024, while the Aces earned their third in four years last October.
Not surprising, the two teams with the most recent success feature nine All-Stars between them, including the past six MVPs in A'ja Wilson (four in her career), Breanna Stewart (two) and Jonquel Jones (one) -- though on Tuesday, Wilson was ruled out of the game due to a right leg injury.
The Liberty defeated the Aces 87-76 in Las Vegas on June 23. Wilson had 16 points and 9 rebounds in the loss.
"I feel like we'll have a greater sense of urgency coming back playing them in New York next week," Hammon said at the time.
As entertaining as the matchup might be, the Cup has also been a pretty good barometer for playoff success. On two occasions, the same two teams from the Cup championship advanced to the Finals. Of the 10 teams that have played in the in-season championship, five reached the Finals that same season.
The Aces are 14-5 this season, one game behind league-leading Minnesota, and have won three of their past four games, with the only loss coming against the Liberty. New York, however, has lost four of its past five, with the only victory coming against the Aces.
For a pair of teams with title aspirations, the Cup can be a starting block for a run deep into October.
"It's a good place to start," Jones said.
Where will the game be won?
Michael Voepel: Statistically, these teams aren't that much different, except for two areas: New York makes more 3-pointers per game (10.2 to 8.5) and shoots better from the free throw line (84.6% to 76.6%). In the teams' game last week, both of those things came into play. The Liberty made five more 3s than Las Vegas, and they had the edge at the line (14-6). Wilson also was held to 16 points, well below her WNBA-best 25.7 PPG season average.
Tuesday, the Aces need to guard the 3-point line better -- the Liberty were 13-of-31 there in the previous meeting -- and they need to be stronger defensively to keep New York from getting so many points from free throws. If the Aces are better -- or at least even -- in those areas, that could win the Cup for them.
What key matchup are you most interested in seeing?
Kendra Andrews: Now that the Wilson-Stewart showdown is off the table, I'm watching the point guards closely. Chelsea Gray is one of the best passers and floor generals the game has ever seen, and averaging 7.4 assists per game, she's as dominant as ever. The Aces' Jackie Young also has been a tremendous facilitator this season.
On the other side, rookie Pauline Astier is averaging nearly four assists per game and has been an incredibly quick, shifty guard for the Liberty. I'm excited to see how the young Astier looks against some of the best point guards in the league.
Voepel: How will forward NaLyssa Smith and center Cheyenne Parker-Tyus match up against the Liberty this time? Smith had a season-low one rebound in last week's loss to New York, plus seven points -- both below her season averages of 11.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG. With Wilson out, the Aces need more out of Smith.
Parker-Tyus must step forward, too, and she has had two recent games that show she is ready. One, in fact, was against the Liberty: She had 14 points on 5-of-7 shooting and 6 rebounds in that June 23 game. She also had 13 points in the Aces' June 25 win over Dallas. Parker-Tyus played 17 minutes in both games.
How concerning is the Liberty's recent skid?
Voepel: Las Vegas going from a .500 record in early August last year to sweeping the WNBA Finals is a continual reminder to not get too wound up by teams' struggles in June. Plus, there is a lot of talent spread out in the league this season. Even with a team near the bottom of the standings such as Seattle, which lost 11 in a row, then turned around this past week and beat New York and Atlanta, which are considered championship contenders.
All that said, it's clear something isn't entirely right yet with the Liberty, who have lost four of their past five. Whether it's the chemistry issues from injury absences that must be resolved, or the team still getting used to coach Chris DeMarco in his first WNBA season, or some mix of things, the Liberty -- which fell to 12-8 with a loss at Golden State on Sunday -- aren't where they thought they would be record-wise heading into July.
Still, they made the Commissioner's Cup final. This game doesn't count in the standings but gives them a chance to hit the reset button (which they already did once after their three-game home losing streak in May).
What other injury concerns are there in addition to Wilson?
Andrews: New York forward Satou Sabally was placed in the concussion protocol Thursday for an injury sustained in the game against Las Vegas. She is out indefinitely; players must complete a multistep process to be cleared from the concussion protocol, and timelines vary widely. Before the injury, Sabally (10.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG this season) was starting to find a rhythm with the Liberty after missing the first two weeks of the season (she had been sidelined since sustaining a concussion in the WNBA Finals while playing for the Phoenix Mercury).
The Liberty are also still reintegrating guard Sabrina Ionescu into their new system; she has played in just eight games and is averaging 9.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 3.4 RPG. Stewart also missed Thursday's game (rest designation) but was back in the starting lineup Sunday.
Aces guard Chennedy Carter (14.1 PPG, 11-for-21 or 52.4% on 3-pointers) played Sunday for the first time after missing five consecutive games with an undisclosed illness. She has been a leading Sixth Player of the Year candidate, so her presence could give the Aces a huge boost off the bench.
Does home court give New York an advantage?
Kareem Copeland: Home court is always a bit of an advantage -- who doesn't get hyped playing in front of their own fans and feeling that energy? Is it enough to make a significant difference against the reigning champs? Not really. This is an Aces team that closed out all three championships on the road, including against the Liberty in 2023. The core of Gray, Young and Jewell Loyd have seen and done it all. They won't be shaken by a rowdy crowd at the Barclays Center.