MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Reds offense ready to rally against Mets

JJ Bleday and the rest of the Reds offense get ready to face the Mets on Wednesday. Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Wednesday's top batter prop bets

Tyler Stephenson | OVER 0.5 HR (+880)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.26 EV

Kody Clemens | OVER 0.5 RBI (+201)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.16 EV

JJ Bleday | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+120)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.99 EV

Daniel Schneemann | UNDER 0.5 H (+178)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.99 EV

Munetaka Murakami | UNDER 0.5 H (+126)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.57 EV

Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets

Bryce Elder | UNDER 4.5 K (-101)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.22 EV

Shohei Ohtani | OVER 7.5 K (+105)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.12 EV

Gerrit Cole | UNDER 4.5 K (-119)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.20 EV

Jacob deGrom | UNDER 1.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.85 EV

Casey Mize | UNDER 5.5 K (-122)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.14 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.

Cleveland Guardians Team Total UNDER:
Cleveland has been under this total in eight consecutive games. (+8.10 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -130

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline:
The Phillies have won this bet in six straight road contests. (+6.25 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: -163

Cincinnati Reds Run Line:
The Reds have won this bet in five consecutive road games. (+5.50 Units / 69% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -156

San Diego Padres Game Total UNDER:
Games at Petco Park have gone under this total in 12 of the last 15 contests played there. (+8.75 Units / 54% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ +101