MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Scherzer's return best to be avoided

Betting on Max Scherzer in his return for Toronto may cause headaches. Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Wednesday's top batter prop bets

Bryce Harper | OVER 0.5 HR (+394)
Projection: 26% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.38 EV

Bryson Stott | OVER 0.5 HR (+640)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.46 EV

Bryan Reynolds | OVER 0.5 RBI (+293)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.06 EV

Spencer Horwitz | OVER 0.5 RBI (+328)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.84 EV

Josh Bell | UNDER 0.5 H (+180)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.36 EV

Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets

Max Scherzer | OVER 2.5 ER (-117)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.17 EV

Max Scherzer | UNDER 3.5 K (+132)
Projection: 46% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.74 EV

Carlos Rodon | UNDER 5.5 K (-127)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.65 EV

Shohei Ohtani | UNDER 6.5 K (+109)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.01 EV

Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 2.5 ER (-154)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.88 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.

Pittsburgh Pirates Game Total OVER:
This total has hit the over in seven consecutive games at PNC Park. (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -106

Chicago White Sox Moneyline:
The White Sox are looking to extend a six-game home winning streak. (+6.30 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: +129

St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER:
The Cardinals have now gone over this total in six straight contests. (+6.05 Units / 84% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -130

Philadelphia Phillies Game Total UNDER:
Games have hit this under in 13 of the last 15 Phillies games on the road. (+10.80 Units / 65% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -110